HMY - Potential to get back to $6 (right now $3.80) and even higher if they keep growth expansion going

(Updates will be posted at the bottom of the post, but I also share my opinion in the comments. If the topic of the opinion is unchanged I will edit my comment, else write a new one)

This post was originally written a month ago when it was at $3.17 and I wanted to bring it over to here, so just be aware some things might sound a bit off like current prices.

Harmony Gold Mining is probably one of the most undervalued companies I have seen in a long time. They focus heavily on growth and despite a market that favours growth companies this year they declined hard.

First mentioned issue: it’s South Africa. This is true and they are aware of that - and they diversified their mines to deal with potential issues.

One big issue South Africa has/had is Covid, but this has got incrementally better. They are still on their way of recovery, and it’s straight up like buying post Covid announcement dump, but before I just say that, let’s continue.

Old Data:

Revenues and Costs

In fiscal 2021, revenues increased 45.2% to $2,710 million from $1,867 million registered a year ago. Average gold prices received during the period rose roughly 18% year over year to $1,719 per ounce (oz).Gold production was around 1.54 million oz for the fiscal, up around 26% year over year.Cash operating costs per oz declined 10% to $1,213. All-in-sustaining costs (AISC) declined 13% year over year to $1,460 per oz.

So let’s get these straight. They earned nearly 50% more, the prices for what they mine and sell rose and their operating costs, so what they pay to make their business run, got decreased. This is literally a 3/3 strike profit wise.

Financial Overview

As of Jun 30, 2021, cash and cash equivalents declined from $367 in the year-ago period to $198 million. Cash flow from operating activities surged 99% year over year to $597 million in fiscal 2021.Net debt was $38 million at the end of fiscal 2021, down around 52% year over year.

I don’t even know what to add to this if you don’t already get it. They halved their cash and cash equivalents, which can be a bad sign unless it’s invested in the company. Was it invested? Well, their operating activities surged 99% in a single year while also casually halving their debt.

Okay, let’s go back a bit. Up top their production was around 1.54 million oz for the fiscal, what’s the outlook?

Harmony Gold plans to produce 1.55-1.63 million oz of gold in fiscal 2022. The company also expects an all-in sustaining cost between R765,000/kg-R800,000/kg. Underground recovered grade is forecast in the range of 5.40-5.57g/t.

So their outlook is to keep their record high or to increase it by 10% - and keep in mind outlooks are usually very down to earth since the last thing you want is being wrong on your outlook as a company.

New Data in chronological order:

Dividend . They increased their last dividend by nearly 200% to $0.06 per share. This is not a lot, but it played into their price movements heavily as this was the last time they reached $6 per share. Their dividend trend line also shows that the highest dividend they pay is around March/April and decreased in the following dividend cycle.

Inflation . I hate it. It’s like someone making the money printer game harder - and I am not a bear. But with recent record highs and with the announcement that far out interest will be increased it’s unavoidable (not a crash, the measurements against inflation and inflation reaching its peak). Gold is known as a hedge against inflation and of course reaches record highs the higher inflation goes. Meaning anyone mining Gold will benefit off of that.

Uranium . In case you didn’t get current news, Uranium prices are being pumped up like crazy by SPRUTT, causing an increase in Uranium Spot prices and an increase in anything related to Uranium. Harmony Gold Mining also extracts and develops uranium, silver and copper mines. source

Cheap option prices . They have already picked up in volume quite significantly today, but IV is still at only 60%. It’s natural to have cheap options since the price of the stock is quite low, but this makes an entry level very easy. Heck, you could even buy 20 6$ strike price options out 126 days and only pay $100. It’s ridiculous if you are aware how well they perform.

They are oversold by indicators. source The RSI is steadily healthy or low. Due to the massive volume going in today (16th Sep) it rose back from 10 to 55, but prices dropped for the day from 3.41 to 3.21, implying RSI is completely useless in this particular scenario.

The company got major attention recently by big boys. Keep in mind, the market cap is only 2 billion.

QCM Cayman Ltd. | new | $82,000

Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. | new |$734,000.

Ronit Capital LLP | added | +7.2%, $3,630,000

First Horizon Advisors Inc. | new | $91,000.

CIBC World Markets Inc. | added | +28.0%, $93,000

Institutional investors own 26.70% of the company’s stock.

That’s right. Institutions own 1/4 of the entire company stock. You can tell me what you want, but if a company has such a high institutional holding, there is definitely something going on.

Price Targets


You can see how right now the stock is hitting near rock bottom. As said, price targets mean nothing, but you can’t tell me a company that increased its earnings so heavily, stabilized as much as possible AND has a 26.70% institutional ownership is worth the lowest price target given.

he Trend I am seeing:

First, this company should have a way higher price but the downtrend can’t be ignored, so something has to happen to change that. It’s way below its sector’s and industries average despite having rock solid financials. They grow heavily and their earnings will represent this. My expectation is that this is just a company put under the rug and no one really cares about it a lot. All it takes for this stock is some attention, and I feel like it will receive it.

To elaborate: I will summarize my point but you can look for yourself

3 to 6 weeks ago the stock had 1 single media coverage. 1. And it was neutral. From now to 3 weeks ago it had 2 negative, 6 positive and 2 very positive ones. That’s tenfold what it had and why I am more convinced that this will kick-off the more coverage it receives. Just to understand how bad it was in the past, despite the 5 articles this week it received the average is still 0 and the News Sentiment still at neutral despite all the recent super positive outlooks. This is a clear upward trend and the kick off it needs - it just has to go further.

For a bit more background data:

Both RSI and Volume patterns indicate a heavy upwards movement incoming. But this is not what I am playing on. This happens all the time. What I am playing on is that inflation keeps rising as expected, Gold becomes worth more and more, Uranium is increasing a lot, and they will profit heavily off of that. And in my opinion that’s why all these new or increased positions from institutions were made.

How do I play this:

I am still building up my position. I am looking for more data around the company and their plans, but I am convinced this will be an insane value play.

Positions in HMY:

200x Jan21’22 3 C for 0.5
14 Oct 2021: 70x May20’22 7 C for 0.17
1500x 3.17

Everything speaks to a great recovery in the price - except needed media coverage and attention. And if this keeps increasing as it did lately, then this will catapult possibly even beyond the $6 mark, but that’s currently my goal and where I will sell off my initial investment.

If you have concerns or feedback please let me know. This will help me to know what to focus on and what to look for. I deeply believe this will pay off heavily given all the circumstances, so I want to see with what it struggles that I apparently can’t see.

Update 11 Nov 2021:
To summarize: Production, Costs down, Debt down, but Revenue slightly down (1.82 to 1.77 billion). All in all top signals, though I would like to know why revenue was less. I assume less Gold was sold, because Gold prices kept increasing. This would be a good scenario as it would mean they have more left to sell at a higher price and Gold price is expected to keep rising.


This DD is impeccable Dex. I think I’ll join you with some calls of my own.


I am going to sound dumb here, but am learning. C3 meaning $3 strike price @ .5 per share?

I think the C there simply means Call


This DD looks great!

Yes, but I might have it wrong compared to how people do it. I usually use whatever my broker is giving but they name them differently depending on where I look at them (Option Chain, Order history or received via mail). But yes back when I bought them a month ago they cost 0.5, so $50, at the strike price of 3, but right now they are hovering around 0.9-1.


I can’t seem to edit the post right now, I’ll add this to the post once I figure out how to edit again.

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Interesting DD, thank you @Dex

I will wait some days before buying this stock, I’m a little bit worried by the current AT:


Agreed, but keep in mind it used to trade way higher and had been trending down for half of the year. Doesn’t mean it can’t drop, but I expect a full recovery thus the DD/positions. If you feel comfortable holding this for 6 months you might open a position now, but if you want a position you can quickly exit at a minor less better wait.

testing site @tedro you see this?


For the first time since 5th of August HMY has hit $4. I don’t expect it to rush through, but seeing that happening so soon after is amazing.

I think at this point it’s safe to assume that the downtrend HMY faced in the 2nd of June is broken and we are now fighting to get back up. Considering the sharp increase that even outperforms the initial fall I expect it to pull back eventually and that time will show whether it’s a healthy pullback or will reverse back down, but considering there hasn’t been any bad news and the last update given was 100% positive I am excited to see how this continues, especially until April next year.


The calls you mentioned in this thread’s first post are spot on so far. Currently in the green with 10% and 27% gains


I was really curious to see how this week will start off and a premarket of above 4 looks really promising. Doesn’t mean anything for the incoming week but it’s a good signal against my biggest fear of it crashing back down and continuing its downtrend.

While this is far into the future I’ll update this post in the comments with my thoughts and moves associated with it. Keep in mind that I do not take gambles in typical investments, meaning once this gets close to $6 (around 5.50) I will most likely exit a majority of or my entire position. Not because I don’t think it could do more due to a way better position than this year, but because I look for certain gains when I all-in and once reached I leave to avoid making potential losses. My number 1 goal is to slowly but consistantly increase my capital (100% every year for 10 years on $1000 starting=1 million) and the worst thing that can happen is losses or not taking the profits you were looking for because of greed.

My positions are currently up 100%, 26% and the last one down 12% but that was my own mistake for not waiting to fill at 0.10 or even 0.15 and instead buying at market order (the down 12% are the 0.17 May calls for $7), which I didn’t want to gamble on whether I get them filled or not so I don’t view them as problematic.

Edit 02Nov21: Considering this comment was written when it was fighting around $4 and is now sitting at $3.59 we are at a pullback and the pullback is slowing down. This is only an indicator and means nothing specific about the future, but a good signal that it might trade flat for a bit and bounces back up. It sucks that I copied this DD that was done when it was at $3.17 so late over to here, but I can’t change that the forum didn’t exist at that point. For me nothing has changed so far, since this was no crash (if the $4 to $3.60 or even less happened within a day, then I would be quite concerned).

Considering no news was released that might have caused this nothing changed about my initial plan and my main target is still late April/May to exit my positions, but since 2022 will be more inflation-fear heavy than this year I will reconsider when time comes what I will do.

Edit 11Nov21: I would say the call for trading flat and bouncing back up was pretty much on point, but I didn’t expect it to break $4 so quickly and through its past resistance.
I expect a pull back soon but there are 0 indicators for me that could imply when. Pretty much when this run up ends, but usually those pullbacks end on the last resistance (aka now supports), so there might be one down to $4.1x if it keeps rising and if not then one to potentially $3.70.


This ran today after the operations update. Inflation is real.

Still holding my January and May calls. Looks good so far

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Are there any potential catalysts within the next few weeks for this stock?

Gratz if you are still holding.

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Even more GZ to everyone who is holding. I expected it to be rough and it was rough, but as of this moment HMY is sitting at $5.22. I don’t expect that a smooth ride continues, given world events and it’s impact it has on the markets usually - yes, even for a choice that was meant to be against inflation and market volatility it’s still affected by that initially.