HOOD - Come to my crib, I will show you my HOOD

What up everyone. Hopefully you enjoyed the Coming to America reference for the title. Today we are going to be covering my dear friend Robinhood. If you’ve been here the past couple of months, then you probably know that I’ve set out to make HOOD my bitch since the beginning of December when the last of their IPO shares became unlocked. If not, here is a link to my previous DD: What is good in the HOOD? (Answer: Not much) - #22

HOOD will be reporting earnings this month around 01/27. And personally, I don’t feel things are going to look great for them.

As we can see from HOOD’s last earnings, one report was good followed by a report that was not so good.

HOOD themselves have even stated in their last earnings report to not expect great things for their next report. Maybe it was a way for them to attempt some damage control?

So let’s take a look at website traffic for Robinhood to see how well their predictions are coming into fruition. It appears that site visits for Robinhood have fallen drastically over the last few months. Like over 20% drastic.

Robinhood appears to still primarily have the bulk of their user base in the U.S. versus other countries.

Here is a comparison of site traffic to some of their brokerage competition.

So it seems that popularity for Robinhood has waned a little over the course of 2021. In fact, they reported last September that active users and app downloads had fallen drastically.

Screenshot 2022-01-09 at 13-34-42 Robinhood’s Popularity Is Fading Away With Meme Stock Fad

So now that we know HOOD has a pretty strong bear case against it already, maybe some of their future guidance can help turn them around. Let’s take a look at that shall we.

Being an old user of Robinhood, although my account is deactivated I still receive regular email updates from the company. The most recent one I received was about updates to their options platform over the course of 2021. Let me tell you, these updates seem like an absolute joke.

So 24/7 phone support was a big upgrade to your options trading? Slow down there big guy. Don’t know if we can handle that much excitement.

Another key element that HOOD themselves appear to be bullish on for 2022 are crypto wallets. From the company’s last report, they had 1.6 million crypto users on a waiting list for their crypto wallet. My question though is how many of those 1.6 million users are awaiting wallets so they can finally transfer their crypto to another exchange? My guess: a fucking fair amount of them probably. Robinhood still to this day only offers a choice of 7 cryptos whereas another competitor Public offers 23 different cryptos, is a free brokerage, and doesn’t not take part in PFOF (payment for order flow).

Let’s not forget that PFOF and crypto trading were two of Robinhood’s biggest streams of revenue. With current talk of regulation to PFOF and Robinhood saying themselves they want to venture way from PFOF, their revenue stream has now become quesionable. Add the fact that so many other broker’s are now topping them in crypto selections, it’s not sounding to hot for HOOD’s future growth.

But one of the biggest updates HOOD has planned has me laughing the most. In a plan to give themselves more legitimacy, they recently announced they will be providing access to users of what essentially sounds like an ETF made up other ETFs. According to a recent Barron’s article, HOOD has made some new hires to the company, like a new Chief Brokerage Officer, to help push them in a new direction.

Screenshot 2022-01-09 at 13-28-56 Robinhood Is Making Changes Keep an Eye on Its Stock

Screenshot 2022-01-09 at 13-29-26 Robinhood Is Making Changes Keep an Eye on Its Stock
Screenshot 2022-01-09 at 13-30-03 Robinhood Is Making Changes Keep an Eye on Its Stock

To me personally, there isn’t much that sounds that positive for HOOD and their upcoming earnings. Another factor is that the current market seems to be transitioning away from tech stocks a little more so that in itself could be a negative catalyst.

Like other earnings plays, I’m expecting to see some upwards movements on HOOD over the next two weeks going into their report. But given the circumstances, I’m expecting this thing to drop right back down afterwards. It has already lost 50% of it’s value from $30 down to $15 in just the month of December. Honestly I don’t really know how much lower it could go. Last time I thought I knew it’s bottom, it continued to set new all time lows. Surprisingly, the general consensus for analysts PT for HOOD is around $40.

This may be a decent play on some calls going into earnings, and then transition into puts afterwards. I have been steadily playing HOOD for the past month, and will probably continue to do so until after this earnings report.

This is not financial advice. Please do your own research.


Doubled my money with $10 puts got them for .10 sold for .21. Definitely loading up on more puts when she rises


HOOD catching some more heat by Market Watch recently for their new program that is recommending stocks to new traders based upon an algorithm that calculates answers from a questionnaire given to them at signup. Basically Robinhood acting as a financial advisor of sorts. Also funny how they are now offering to ask customers their risks ability like every other broker that allows you trade options.

Another recent analyst article on Trefis gave HOOD a PT of $25 even though at the current $15 it is trading at is 6x it’s projected revenue for 2022.

That’s awesome dude. Love hearing that these plays are working out well for others.


More bad news for HOOD recently with the broker Revolut debuting in the U.S… Apparently we have some members who are using Revolut, and are impressed with the platform. Never good for a company to be steadily falling, and a new contender enter the ring. With this news, the overall market performance, and upcoming earnings I’m looking to see HOOD at the $10 range by the end of the month.


i’m probably late to the party for this, to really capture a ton of potential but i think this will still move around with a few swing play opportunities leading up to and after earnings I do wholeheartedly believe this has not found it’s bottom and will continue to dip. Nice work on the DD.


This article caught my eye while browsing this morning. I think the title speaks for itself.

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Earnings week bitches!!! HOOD to $5!!!


BlockFi just alerted me they are live with their crypto wallets. Although not a broker, it’s kinda sad they were able to get wallets up and running faster than Robinhood. News like this makes them look even worse.

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When is earnings?

Earnings expected 27Jan22 EOD

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Could their earning really be so bad to keep lowering the stock? I feel like it’s over sold and no matter how bad they do it can’t possible go much lower. But at the same time there is no support on this so it can really go as low as it wants.

I’m open to arguments why it wouldn’t. It has no set floor. They have nothing positive going for them that I can think of.

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I’m still bearish. HOOD ran with the market today. Earnings aren’t until Thursday. Things can’t fall forever. They have to bounce sometime before they fall again.


You had mentioned calls leading up to earnings–does that include the week of earnings or would it be better to focus on finding a put entry at this point?

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@flowseidon2954 I’m not going to play calls on it. That idea was for the previous weeks up to earnings because I expected a little run up like we had seen in the past with other earnings plays. That was not the case for HOOD due to the market around it going down during those weeks. I personally am not even going to look at HOOD calls as a possibility until after earnings on Thursday.


Robinhood just released this statement recapping the year and their “improvements” to the service.

Too little, too late on those feature upgrades in my opinion. I still feel that their user base is declining. Bearish.


@Ridn2lo are you holding any puts through earnings or waiting until the ER and take a position the following day? I am new to ER plays and have read the work on splitting these up into 3 parts

Was looking at taking puts with an exp sometime in Feb.

I’m holding a few 02/18 expiration. May grab a couple lottos for earnings to sell next morning, but not a big position. I typically don’t like holding overnight through earnings.