I’m going to be adding to this over the next few days/week as I have time, but I wanted to start the DD so others can chime in.
MarineMax, Inc. engages in the provision of boating-related activities. The firm sells used and new sport boats, sport cruisers, sport yachts and fishing boats through retail stores. It also provides maintenance, repair, slip and storage services.
HZ0 has earnings on 1/27/22. The company has seen some big growth from Covid, where people used their stimulus money and free time to get into boating. Just before the Covid crash the stock was around $20, but after a sharp drop to $8, they’re now knocking on the door to $60.
Historically the stock has seen a $3-5ish bump on earnings, with an eventual drop off over the following week(s). My thought is to get a call a week or two before earnings and ride it into the day or two after earnings, and then switch to a put play on the back end. With a slighty lowered EPS estimate for this upcoming quarters earnings, and holidays included in it, I can see them beating EPS. On the bear side, we’re moving into winter, and while omicron is raging, I think this will be the wave that takes the US close to herd immunity. HZ0 may be about to get beached for a while.
I’m not sure how this is a COVID related play. The stock ran up during COVID, but I don’t see the relation to PTON, DASH, ZM. This company doesn’t sell to people who receive stimulus checks, they sell to wealthy people. I think this thesis can play out like the previous RH play.
Wealth gap is increasing, top 5% are richer much richer than they were 3 years ago, especially with the crazy bull run we’ve had. Those are the customers here.
Boating/Yacht interest is also increasing, a couple of the bigger Youtuber channels that focus primarily on Yacht reviews:
There does seem to be a slight drop in interest in the past 6 months from the peak, but this is just a single metric. 99% of these viewers aren’t the customers.
I haven’t done an analysis on the financial metrics, but they’ve grown revenue 33% YoY and managed to double OI in the same period. I’d like to see more analysis on what will drive this down other than the fact that it has run up during COVID.
Made some nice profit after selling a put on this morning’s drop. The option chain is getting some decent action and allowing for more plays. Looking to re-enter if this follows its historical habit of a $5 run up for earnings this Thursday. So far this has dropped $15 from my initial post, so for anyone who was able to get a decent fill on Feb puts should be sitting pretty. Be careful and use limit orders.
Earnings Update (Benzinga): MarineMax beat estimated earnings by 38.26%, reporting an EPS of $1.59 versus an estimate of $1.15, which surprised analysts. Revenue was up $61.17 million from the same period last year.
The earnings part of this play went exactly as predicted, following the historical $5-$6 bump on earnings. Calls from yesterday are 50-100%+ at the time of writing this.
I already managed to scalp a put today for 40% gain. I’m still confident we’ll see a dip over the next couple weeks, and I’ll be keeping an eye out for a good entry on the Feb 18 $45P or $40P today and tomorrow.
Be cautious if you’re considering getting in on the put play. Volume is still low, and HZO’s earnings were better than expected. We’ll probably see it start climbing as we move into spring.
