Let’s use this thread to discuss upcoming spac mergers, catalysts, low float pumps, spac warrants, pipe unlocks and swing plays related to spacs.
Starting off for the week of August 15th:
August 15th - BWAC Extension Vote
This play was a complete flop. Only ~2.8 million shares redeemed with around 4.2 million left. We need to look into why the redemptions came in so low.
August 18th - DNAA & Akili Merger Vote
Possible low float play. Let’s be on the lookout for the redemption numbers. Somewhat of a binary play → Redemptions high = pump & Redemptions low = dump (usually). New ticker will be $AKLI
August 18th - SLCR & Tim Horton’s China Merger Vote
Possible low float play. Let’s be on the lookout for the redemption numbers. Somewhat of a binary play → Redemptions high = pump & Redemptions low = dump (usually). New ticker will be $THCH
August 19th - GIW Deadline Extension Vote
No options on this one so an ESSC/THCA setup not possible. That being said, there’s usually a mini-pump when redemption numbers are released and they’re high.
August 22nd - ESSC Deadline Extension Vote
Can lightning strike thrice? Will we finally see high redemptions on the OG play? Will we get sea ottered? Stay tuned and read the filings to find out.
August 22nd - SWAG & Nogin Merger Vote 74.6% redemptions. Float is too high
Possible low float play. Let’s be on the lookout for the redemption numbers. Somewhat of a binary play → Redemptions high = pump & Redemptions low = dump (usually). New ticker will be $NOGN
August 25th - RVAC - Merger with Westrock Coffee
Possible low float play similar to DNAA/AKLI. Let’s be on the lookout for the redemption numbers. New ticker will be $WEST
August 26th - ISLE Deadline Extension Vote This SPAC is liquidating
No options on this one so an ESSC/THCA setup not possible. That being said, there’s usually a mini-pump when redemption numbers are released and they’re high.
August 31st - WARR Deadline Extension Vote
No options on this one so an ESSC/THCA setup not possible. That being said, there’s usually a mini-pump when redemption numbers are released and they’re high.
NAV: $10.01
Float: 27.6M (27,600,000)
They are adding money to the trust in the lesser of $110,000 or $.04 per share monthly. This comes out to $0.00398550724 or ~4/10 of a cent per month if there are no redemptions. However, if the redemptions are very high, then $.04 per share will be added. I don’t think an arb fund would opt to skip redemption for such miniscule gains. FWIW, In the proxy, they do state that they are currently in talks with a target so likelihood of liquidation is low.
September 6th - VTAQ merger with Presto
This one is very interesting. It’s already a low float with 1.25M (1,255,018) public shares outstanding. If even only 70% of shareholders redeem that’s a tiny float of ~376.5k. Sadly, it doesn’t have any options and it’s been trading above NAV. Still, I think we should pay attention to this and go through the proxy for lock-up information.
NAV: $10.20
Float: 1.25M (1,255,018)
September 6th - CRHC merger with Allwyn
So I looked more into this and I don’t think this one is worth the risk. There’s quite a few things going against this. One, the trust is absolutely massive at 829 million (about 4x typical spac) so it will take a very high number of redemptions for the float to be low enough for it to pump. Secondly, I’m seeing some bizarre language in the proxy stating that a public shareholder or affiliated groups cannot redeem more than 15% of CRHC’s class A shares.
“A public shareholder, together with any of its affiliates or any other person with whom it is acting in concert or as a “group” (as defined under Section 13 of the Exchange Act (as defined below)), will be restricted from redeeming in the aggregate its shares or, if part of such a group, the group’s shares, in excess of 15% of the outstanding Cohn Robbins Class A Shares (i.e., in excess of 12,420,000 Cohn Robbins Class A Shares).”
To me, this suggests that arb funds probably did not take a huge position in CRHC due to this restriction.
Furthermore, minimum cash is $550 million in trust and the target is not at all that terrible. The projections are quite reasonable. I’m only adding this to discourage people from taking a position in anticipation of a low-float squeeze.
Will update this post with more detailed information like NAV and PIPE when I have more time.
