So looks like AMD took marketshare away from INTC in server and desktop while gave up a bit of ground in mobile.
Next report from Mercury Research about the GPU split should be coming out at the end of the month before Computex (June 4-7) where alot of the big shots from INTC, AMD, NVDA, QCOM, etc… will be speaking.
Computex Keynote Dates:
Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger: 6/3 8PM PDT
AMD CEO Lisa Su: 6/2 6:30PM PDT
NVDA CEO Jensen Huang: 6/2 4 AM PDT
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Not sure how many folks are following this, but this AMD keynote for me I think could be pretty important for the next few quarters.
What I am hoping for is a more concrete update schedule on when exactly the new Ryzen 9000 series cpus are coming out. Will it be early to mid q3? Or more like late q3 to early q4?
Pushing it out in Q3 will absolutely put pressure on Intel as currently Intel is already getting blasted by the current Ryzen 7000 series lineup.
Intel is expected to release their new lineup to combat the next AMD line up in Q4 but based on their last release schedule, it seems more like their release could be delayed more towards Q1 of 2025. This means that this would give AMD free reign with not only their old lineup to continue to eat up more market share and then continue to dominate with their new lineup because Intel has nothing to offer.
Y/Y as the chart previously posted shows is that AMD gained about 3.6% marketshare across server/desktop/mobile. I think this would continue to grow and as a result eat into Intel’s profits.
We already know Intel is getting hit hard in their foundry business. Desktop iirc was a bit over half of their entire revenue so 6 months of uncontested market would be rough on them. They were already hurting on the 12th gen/13th gen sales to begin with by over-saturating the market by overshipping and their margins took a big hit.
They can ill afford to continue to take these massive hits.
Also with NVDA coming out shilling the typical new Blackwell/Blackwell Ultra lineup, I would hope to expect AMD to come out swinging with their updated AI accelerators and processors and perhaps a look into their update cycle.
I covered this mostly live during the actual keynote but to help keep track of things I’ll write a quick recap.
Of the things I was expecting out of the AMD keynote, Lisa Su did cover most of it and AMD is delivering on most of what I had hoped.
1). Ryzen 9000 desktop cpu skus are launching in July 2024. (Definitely will put pressure on Intel on the desktop side)
2). Ryzen Strixt Point 3rd Gen AI ( following Intel’s new naming scheme gimic, AMD is also following it with their own new naming scheme but the bigger point is that Strix Point and Hawk Point both blow Intel’s current offerings out of the water so this will continue to put pressure on the mobile side)
Interesting note from my perspective from this keynote is that with all the different vendors that came to the stage, Asus, Lenovo, HP, etc… each of them aren’t pushing how they have better hardware but rather better software now. Seems like AMD mobile processor chips are the baseline best and to distinguish themselves its now the software they offer that will separate themselves.
3). AMD Epyc Turin was announced and has backwards compatability with Genoa. (Continues the dominance in having the best server cpu chips in the market that are not only the best performing in terms of raw performance but also significantly more efficient than their Intel counterparts)
4). Announcement of AMD’s yearly refresh cycle which matches that of NVDA with MI300x, MI325x, MI350, MI400, etc…
My 170Cs I bought last week to play this runup even with me trimming and not even avging down with the market pull down still had me exit with 20% profit. If you took a position on Friday, those gains would’ve easily been 50%+.
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Now all eyes are on Intel and their keynote in a few hours. Intel will need to do alot of work to assure they aren’t falling too far behind.
Key things I hope to hear.
1). Update on their 15th gen launch (Arrow Lake) for all aspects Desktop/Mobile/Server release schedule and specs.
2). Update on their Battlemage GPU line and future releases
For me I am curious about if their newest release is going to be on schedule or not to come out to fight AMD soon enough (AMD releases next month and unless Intel has pulled up their release schedule, they will be 5-7 months behind them which could be pretty rough especially with them missing the end of year holiday volume).
Furthermore, I am curious about if they are also going to be fast tracking the next release so that they can help cut down the losses or see if that is not possible.
AMD’s dagger to Intel is that they are continuing to release new chips in 2024 for the AM4 platform and promised to continue support for the AM5 platform to 2027+. If AM5 sees the same longevity that AM4 sees, consumers are well positioned to continue to stick with AMD instead of going with Intel with their expensive updates every generation.
I main over-arching thought is that I will play Intel to the down side. This would not be an immediate entry but more towards as it gets closer towards its next earnings for Q3. So I would be expecting to enter in a position perhaps about 1.5-2 months down the line but expecting it to be to the downside as market research reports will show updates on how AMD sales are vs Intel sales and so forth.
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