@Shawn1 to the extent that IV is a measure of uncertainty anticipated by MMs so that premium can be appropriately priced, I would expect IV to actually increase a bit as this lock-up expiry adds to the variables that can affect price. Probably not appreciably though, and 200% is already annoyingly high.
@greydoge IRNT is a startup that vaunts a specific niche, but that has struggled to convert its supposed advantage into $$$. They have about 3 weeks to get close enough to a deal to be able to report it during earnings, and that is a very short timeframe for serious customers. It is possible that they will still be able to score some deals from this crisis, but I think it’s unlikely they will do so within the timeframe we’re considering for this play. Also, it is more likely that if there is any firm or country that has not beefed up their cyber defenses yet, they will go to one of the companies listed here: Cyber security stock discussion - #2 by T_Milly