We’re a stock trading Discord so I am wondering what impact the Israel vs Palestine war may have on markets, if any.
Only real political catalyst that I am seeing is an effect on oil markets.
It appears that there has been a potential deal being negotiated between US, Saudi Arabia, and Israel, related to the increase of oil production. Part of the complications behind the deal included the Israel vs Palestine conflict. With that conflict being severely escalated this weekend, my understanding is that whatever deal that was being worked on just got severely complicated to finalize, basically because if Saudi agrees now, it would look from an optics-perspective as if they are siding with Israel in this war which they would want to avoid.
Do we see oil begin to recover? Anyone got any thoughts?
The deal actually happening has definitely become less likely now considering the Saudis were asking Israelis to give some land back to Palestine, or at least that was my interpretation. The Saudi’s also did not make Israel happy with their comments about Hamas invasion, so tough road ahead. Whether or not that makes oil prices start to go back up I’m not sure but my guess would be maybe . The recent decline in oil prices was from declining demand so if opec is maintaining output and the Saudi’s say they are continuing to cut 1 mil barrels per day till eoy, then I don’t see how this would make much of a difference but if markets were pricing in the possibility of Saudis increasing output at the beginning of 2024 as part of this deal we may get jump in oil prices on Monday. Just my 2 cents but will definitely be watching oil mon
Indeed, crude is probably one of the main things to have on our radar. It will likely only be affected if Iran gets dragged in, as Egypt is not going to step in as an active belligerent. And seabourn, at that. (Maps attached) If there is a disruption though, crude could easily spike to > $100. Futures opening in a few hours will tell us if that’s a possibility.
As a side note, Saudis are likely itching to increase production. While their two price cuts have had some effect, prices fell again in the last week. Partly because we, and some of the other smaller producers, have stepped in to fill that gap. We are producing an extra 0.5M barrels per day just this year (12.5M->13M). So they are literally handing over capacity to us by.
I’m gonna look more into what the likelihood is of Iran getting involved. My gut says they won’t but I’m embarrassingly uninformed on middle east politics
Would argue the likelihood of Iran getting involved is pretty low since that would be a non-nuclear power going against a country with a policy that allows first strikes.
Yes, there are several Israeli defense companies that are traded on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). Some examples include:
Elbit Systems Ltd. (ESLT): Elbit Systems is a leading international defense electronics company, specializing in a wide range of defense-related technologies. It is headquartered in Israel and traded on the NYSE.
Rafael Advanced Defense Systems Ltd. (RFL): Rafael is an Israeli defense technology company that develops and manufactures advanced defense systems for the military and homeland security. It is also traded on the NYSE.
RFL has a market cap of only 45m, could get a good boost from hype alone. I’m wagering the US and others are more likely to donate weapons similar to Ukraine although they could give monetary aid to be used on weapons only.
. The recent decline in oil prices was from declining demand so if opec is maintaining output and the Saudi’s say they are continuing to cut 1 mil barrels per day till eoy, then I don’t see how this would make much of a difference but if markets were pricing in the possibility of Saudis increasing output at the beginning of 2024 as part of this deal we may get jump in oil prices on Monday. Just my 2 cents but will definitely be watching oil mon
