MANU - Calls on the footie

Making a quick thread for this i’ll add to it later but busy right now, Manchester United football team’s owners are currently expected to be selling the club in the near future. Esimates seem to range between 4.7-7.2b but the higher estimates seem way too bullish right now, 4.7b seems most likely but this would mean a buyout at around $28 a share. I’m currently in Dec expiries but will roll out to Jan this week. There isnt much information out there currently other than they have seeked out the Raine group with help raising capital who helped with the sale of Chelsea FC.

There was rumours that Apple was interested which turned out to be false.

Manchester United was valued at $4.6 billion and $4.7 billion by Forbes and Sportico respectively.

One of the recent English Premier League sales was Chelsea’s sale to todd Boehly for $3.2 billion, one of the largest such deals.

Chelsea was previously valued at $3.2 billion and $3.4 billion by Forbes and Sportico, respectively, prior to the sale."

So we can assume that Forbes and Sportico are somewhere close to the money.

As for the high figure, there is reports of the Glazers are wanting it to be the largest sale for a football club ever from “Sources” :thinking: . There has been a lot of investment from Qataris/ Saudis into UK football teams recently so it’s not completely out the question. (Newcastle was sold to saudis just recently.)

and just a reminder that buying $28 calls would be worthless if they sell for $28 a share so be careful with strikes.

The Saudi government have said they have no issue with the private sector taking over.

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Doing some digging and found that this deal could take longer than the Chelsea sale which took 3 months according to journalists. This is about all I have to go off timescale wise.

Not to say there won’t be bullish momentum on numbers being thrown around and potential buyers. But playing shares is probably safest if you’re waiting for the buyout.

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This is definitely a shares play. Rumours that saudis could challenge Ratcliffe for the club. Mentioned the 4.8b valuation again the article with the rumours glazers want 8b. This would value MANU at $30-$50 a share.

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MANU headed back to $20, could be a good opportunity to buy long term shares. I will probs take some calls 2-4 weeks out if it hits.

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Daily mail aren’t a reliable source but they’re saying Qataris are to make an offer “within days” ahead of mid Feb deadline. This could be big, best case scenario MANU buys out for $50-60 a share, I might take a position tomorrow but this is a high risk, high reward play.

It’s up 16% currently in AH but on low volume so would expect it to head down a bit tomorrow during market hours.

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https://twitter.com/PAJamieGardner/status/1623391077221769216?s=20&t=wSlAroSjvyhw8jfvlrX_yA

Potentially the Qataris arent looking for a buyout due to them owning PSG, some no-name reporter but the market reacted to it, gonna sit out and hope for better entry.

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https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thetimes.co.uk%2Farticle%2Fat-least-five-bidders-ready-to-meet-5-billion-price-tag-to-buy-manchester-united-qshbpml89

Getting tons of news ahead of mid Feb deadline. This would put MANU at $38-$40 a share, could be more if there’s a bidding war, could be interesting.

“Raine, the New York bank that is managing the potential sale for the club’s owners, believes a global following of more than a billion people actually takes the asking price to somewhere between £6-8 billion.”

The risk is here is that nothing new comes of this and calls expire worthless, still think shares are better. I’ll probably enter an april positon too. Still think the risk reward is good here

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Weird trade, not sure what to make of it. Could be a bet on the deal either going through or being rejected by April.

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This basically sums up the news from this week.

  • Offers from Qatar 4-4.5b(gbp) ($30.7-$35.6 a share)

  • Elon musk may be interested

  • Interest from Saudi

  • Current owners may buy out their siblings to retain the club.

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/man-united-takeover-news-musk-26209409

I like the risk/reward on the April 30c the best if you can get good fills/ prepare to average down.

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An actual decent Seeking Alpha article where they do some “napkin calculations” and come out with 4.5b GBP as a valuation basing it from the sale of Chelsea, which I kind of don’t agree with since the previous owner was forced out for ties to putin.

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fseekingalpha.com%2Farticle%2F4578451-man-united-big-gains-if-a-sale-is-agreed

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Qatari Royals Plan £5 Billion Opening Bid for Man United

Stock just popped 10% on this news.

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Not sure what caused the sell off today, my guess is that its either because theres only two confirmed parties so far or there has been no confirmed $ amounts on bids. Hopefully we get some more news this week/ next week but I closed my march positions and added to april.

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Bearish news this morning.

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This is just registering through TD’s news, definitely not helping the stock today.

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Heres a snippet since that wants to be paywalled.

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IMO with the recent news, the risk went up quite substantially but so did the reward if this plays out. They report earnings tomorrow AH so hopefully we get some news. I don’t buy the 1.6b valuation news at all. If it starts losing 20 as support I’ll probably close out and sit out until the picture is a little clearer.