Meta Platforms Upcoming Earnings Play 2/2

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Meta/Facebook - FB DD Request

Was looking at upcoming earnings this week and see that Meta/Facebook has them AH on 2/2. In thinking about some of the recent EC I had some thoughts about Facebook that may make them different than some of the other plays and am curious to get others thoughts.

EW Looks good
Earnings Whisper Data for FB

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Meta Platforms

Quarter

4th Quarter December 2021

Earnings Scheduled

Wednesday, Feb 2 @ 4:05 PM ET

Confirmed

Yes

EPS Estimate

$3.78

EPS Whisper

$3.96

Revenue Estimate

$33.38 Bil

Calculations performed with data from EarningsWhispers

Facebook doesn’t have to be concerned with supply chain impacting future guidance.
Metaverse seems to be the new buzzword of investing.
Facebook closed Friday at $301.71 which is down from its 52 week high $384.33 and down with all the rest of spy as of late.
I feel like there’s a strong possibility of what the street wants to hear for guidance out of this call and it may be a positive catalyst after being push down as of late.
This is my first DD request and some weekend thoughts after taking some time off with the wife for a few days, wanted to get a conversation started. I’m planning to grab some 2/18 ITM/ATM calls on a dip tomorrow.

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Facebook does have massive supply chain issues. Specifically, semi-conductor chip shortage and the supply of cutting edge chips needed to build the foundation of meta at scale

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Chip shortage can also impact their current limited amount of electronics they sell to consumers.

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Ever since FB changed their name to “meta” and announced their metaverse initiative last earnings, I honestly haven’t read anything noteworthy in the news about the company.

Have they done anything new or pushed new growth? It seems like their stock was just going between 300 - 350 after last ER, and then after the J Pow press they broke downwards.

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Leaving this here since it captures FB’s predicament pretty well, in light of their profit and DAU miss, and weaker guidance:

Facebook’s hands are tied
1—High ARPU coastal users have churned; TikTok is eating their lunch
2—They can’t acquire because of antitrust scrutiny
3—They can’t build because founders don’t want to be there
4—IDFA killed their ability to target ads
5—The metaverse is 10yrs out
RIP

https://twitter.com/nikitabier/status/1489007202056634370

After the incredible bungling of their crypto Diem, I don’t know that we can trust them to deliver on the “metaverse” until Reality Labs impresses.

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I missed a lot on this one, a few early points and now a lot of afterthoughts on my part. I’ll work on getting better for the next one.

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This is decent commentary. META has done a great job of making people think the metaverse was a lot further along but this ER really exposed how weak they are internally.

The concerning situation for them is that DAUs are also down - however I like the ARPU comment and I believe we’re going to see the same thing with SNAP (potentially).

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Meta behest to several years of painful capex to fund meta and a declining ad business. I anticipate it gets worse before it gets better. Meta is still very conceptual. Until they can prove it out and monetize it, meta stock will suffer

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I thought this was a pretty good read as well. but only read it post ER unfortunately

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Thinking a quick bounce back up to 250-260 wouldn’t be out of the question in the next month or 2 but calls are pretty expensive still. If you look back a year ago that was support and precovid we’re taking 212ish. If this drops further, could play a bounce off 200s back up to 230.

Hard to tell with market headwinds in March and this could just as easily keep moving sideways.