Starting a thread on Monkeypox since there’s already cases in the US and it’s thought to be airborne. I’m tired right now so it’s very disjointed. Probably highly unlikely anything comes of it but it’s worth a look into to see what plays are out there just in case.
The odd thing is that it is usually caught by people in Africa, this was caught by someone who had been to Canada.
Emergent bio solutions (EBS) seem to have either acquired the rights to manufacture two kinds of Smallpox vaccine or have just bought the actual vaccines to store, seems like they’re purpose is to prevent bio-terrorism though.
Looks like #EBS for Emergent could be a play here.
They’re one of two existing smallpox vaccine makers: Emergent and Bavarian Nordic (OTC: BVNRY — no options).
Emergent’s vaccine is called ACAM2000.
Bavarian Nordic’s vaccine is called JYNNEOS. On May 18 the US government exercised purchase options for JYNNEOS: Link But it’s for 113 million orders and for 2023 and 2024…
There is a third company: Wyeth. Wyeth used to produce Dryvax but stopped in 1980 after the world health emergency for smallpox was declared over. Pfizer acquired Wyeth in 2009.
According to the FDA as related to ACAM2000 vs Dryvax:
Both vaccines are derived from the New York City Board of Health strain of vaccinia, but Dryvax was grown on the skin of calves and then essentially freeze-dried for storage. It was licensed by FDA in 1931 but is no longer manufactured. ACAM2000, a “second generation” smallpox vaccine, is derived from a clone of Dryvax, purified, and produced using modern cell culture technology.
EBS is up 11% today on monkeypox news but has lots of room to bounce up.
Their stock price collapse in November 2021 was due to losing a COVID vaccine contract with the government. Perhaps if new contracts get announced to produce smallpox vaccines, this could pump EBS back to the 40 to 50 range. For now, sentiment could be enough to give it some upward movement.
I added EBS 06/17 35c and 40c to my watchlist.
I could see PFE or even MRNA being a play only if they announced that they were working on a modern version of a smallpox/monkeypox vaccine, but EBS already has one so a bet on PFE/MRNA would be a lot more speculative. Perhaps @wolfwoodx could weigh in on the likelihood?
I remember during Omicron fud, $APT calls printed. They’re a mask manufacturer including N95 masks.
With Monkeypox being airborne, WHO emergency meeting today, and the weekend coming up for news to brew, I took a small lotto on APT 06/03 4.5c at 0.15 hoping for a sentiment gapper to about $5.00-$5.15 for the stock price.
SIGA has had their TPOXX in pill form for a few years. FDA approved it some time ago. This IV form that was just approved by FDA is the same drug, different delivery. It’s both a treatment for pox diseases and a prophylactic.
SIGA has won multiple BARDA contracts for their pill over 10years worth about $1Billion - it is part of the US stockpiling for smallpox outbreak mitigation. Here are press releases from SIGA announcing a couple of their BARDA awards:
I think this quote from this article summarizes the current condition and uncertainties quite well.
“Essentially, we face two options,” Hammer said. “Either the virus is inherently different now or perhaps our susceptibility to it has changed. Alternatively, it could just be that we have an encountered a perfect storm of conditions that have allowed the virus to spread this way. I think the latter scenario is the more likely one.”
One possibility is that the effects of past mass smallpox vaccinations is fading, leaving fewer people with protection against the closely related monkeypox.
However, Prof Keith Neal, of Nottingham University, added: “Has the virus changed? Well it does not actually appear to be any more lethal, though something may have affected its transmissibility. And don’t forget this is a DNA virus and is unlikely to mutate at the rates that RNA viruses do, including those that cause Covid or HIV. Overall, I am not too worried.”
Worst case is that the virus mutated to become more transmissible. Best case is that these infections are all from a particular set of super-spreader events and was more of a one-off accident as opposed to the start of some global pandemic.
Data and news will continue to unfold and shed light. However, we will likely see more case counts rise this coming week as the incubation period passes by. Could create more FUD in the meantime until we get more answers. Basically, be generous with profit-taking on monkeypox tickers if FUD works. Leave a few runners if you want.
I follow a… wide variety of viewpoints on Twitter and I’ve seen a lot of anon-right-wing-Twitter speculating that covid vaccines could have increased our susceptibility to other non covid diseases. Not saying I believe this, nor am I suggesting it should be completely discarded, but thought it would be a relevant perspective if we want to explore all angles. So worst case might not be that the disease has changed, but that we have changed.
Regardless of cause and effect, it’s an interesting theory that could slightly increase the probability of this becoming a more widespread disease supporting some plays re: tickers above.
Conversely I see a lot of people dismissing monkeypox on Twitter because we are extra sensitive right now following covid.
From a trading standpoint regardless of the both side conspiracy theories. I will be looking at SIGA for a re entry. Got massive AH volume and roughly 7 times its average volume for the day. The chain has been extended up. Which means FOMO at the top. Can probably make some premium gains from that alone even if it trades sideways. Which I doubt it does.
Cut my calls Friday due to fear of no new cases coming over weekend or coming out that was small cell etc. however with new cases and all the FUD I’d expect most retail to not want to miss out on the next MRNA.
If it tanks Monday premarket or at open then I’ll sit it out. But it is the cheaper of the 2 and retail always picks the cheaper. Think they both continue to pump with any Pox news coming unless it’s that the spread is controlled however with 21 day incubation period this debacle could last few weeks. Then I will look for put entry when the news slows.
Although incubation period is long, only individuals presenting symptoms are shown to be infectious. Think of the handful of ebola scares we’ve had and how effectively those were managed. I could be wrong but i wouldnt bet on this getting out of hand .
I agree. However society being currently still scared of
Their own shadow with the media posting constant headlines about it is what I will keep an eye on. Ride it up then when becomes confirmation of nothing puts for the way back down.
