The S&P 500 futures trade 29 points, or 0.6%, above fair value amid positive momentum and continuing hope that Russia and Ukraine can reach a ceasefire soon.
Negotiators from both sides will resume peace talks in Turkey today, meeting face-to-face for the first time in over two weeks, according to Reuters . Ukraine is hopeful for a ceasefire, but U.S. officials continue to express their doubts about Russia’s intentions.
Strikingly, the 2s10s spread in the Treasury market has now compressed to within ten basis points, stoking speculation of a recession down the road should there be an inversion. That hasn’t bothered the futures market, though, which is appearing more optimistic about the near-term outlook.
The 2-yr yield is up ten basis points to 2.44%, and the 10-yr yield is up four basis points to 2.52%. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.3% to 98.78 amid relative strength in the euro, which is up 0.5% to 1.1039 amid hope for a ceasefire. WTI crude is down 0.2% to $105.71/bbl.
On the data front, investors will receive the FHFA Housing Price Index for February (Briefing.com consensus 1.3%) and the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index for February (Briefing.com consensus 18.7%) at 9:00 a.m. ET, followed by the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for March (Briefing.com consensus 107.5) and the JOLTS - Job Openings report for February at 10:00 a.m. ET.
In U.S. Corporate news:
- FedEx (FDX 234.75, +4.70): +2.0% after announcing that Frederick Smith, Chairman and CEO, will become Executive Chairman, and COO Raj Subramaniam will be promoted to CEO on June 1.
- Nielsen (NLSN 26.85, +4.64): +20.9% after agreeing to be acquired by a private equity consortium led by Evergreen and Brookfield (BAM 57.00, -0.18, -0.3%) for $16 billion in cash, including debt.
- LHC Group (LHCG 168.94, +11.71): +7.5% after agreeing to combine with UnitedHealth’s (UNH 514.01, +0.81, +0.2%) Optum group for $170 per share, or about $5.4 billion, in cash.
- Dave & Buster’s (PLAY 40.80, -2.32): -5.4% after missing revenue estimates.
Reviewing overnight developments:
-
Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Tuesday on a mostly higher note. Japan’s Nikkei: +1.1% Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: +1.0% China’s Shanghai Composite: -0.3% India’s Sensex: +0.6% South Korea’s Kospi: +0.4% Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: +0.8%.
-
In economic data:
- Japan’s February Unemployment Rate 2.7% (expected 2.8%; last 2.8%)
- South Korea’s March Consumer Confidence 103.2 (last 103.1)
- Australia’s February Retail Sales 1.8% m/m (expected 1.0%; last 1.8%)
-
In news:
- The Bank of Japan conducted another emergency buying operation, receiving more demand than what was seen on Monday.
- Japan’s Prime Minister Kishida ordered the compilation of the next stimulus package by the end of April.
- The Bank of Japan expects the country’s CPI to accelerate in April.
- South Korea is expected to announce an extra budget.
- China Securities Journal speculated that the reserve requirement ratio may be cut in Q2.
-
-
Major European indices trade on a firmly higher note. STOXX Europe 600: +1.6% Germany’s DAX: +1.9% U.K.'s FTSE 100: +1.3% France’s CAC 40: +2.5% Italy’s FTSE MIB: +1.9% Spain’s IBEX 35: +1.7%.
-
In economic data:
- Germany’s February Import Price Index 1.3% m/m (expected 1.8%; last 4.3%); 26.3% yr/yr (expected 26.9%; last 26.9%). April GfK Consumer Climate -15.5 (expected -14.0; last -8.5)
- U.K.'s February Mortgage Lending GBP4.67 bln (expected GBP6.00 bln; last GBP5.93 bln). February BoE Consumer Credit GBP1.876 bln (expected GBP843 mln; last GBP143 mln)
- France’s March Consumer Confidence 91 (expected 94; last 97)
- Spain’s February Retail Sales 0.9% yr/yr (last 4.1%)
-
In news:
- Negotiators from Russia and Ukraine are discussing a cease-fire in Turkey today.
- Recent reports suggest that Ukraine may be allowed to join the EU if it doesn’t join NATO.
- European Central Bank policymaker De Cos said that the governing council sees inflation stabilizing around target in 2024 under all scenarios.
-
U.S. equity futures:
- S&P 500 Futures: +25 @ 4,601
- DJIA Futures: +184 @ 35,140
- Nasdaq 100 Futures: +94 @ 15,081
Overseas:
- Europe: DAX +1.9%, FTSE +1.3%, CAC +2.5%
- Asia: Nikkei +1.1%, Hang Seng 1.0%, Shanghai Composite -0.3%
Commodities:
- Crude Oil -3.57 @ 102.39
- Nat Gas -0.173 @ 5.365
- Gold -36.10 @ 1903.70
- Silver -0.696 @ 25.500
- Copper +0.0170 @ 4.7425