Morning: Muted action in futures with Russia-Ukraine situation remaining the focal point

The S&P 500 futures trade four points, or 0.1%, below fair value as the market remains mindful of the Russia-Ukraine situation while investors review the latest earnings reports.

According to CNN , the U.S. is alleging that Russia has added approximately 7,000 troops near Ukraine, bringing its total to over 150,000, despite the country’s claims about a partial withdrawal. In turn, the 10-yr yield is down four basis points to 2.01%, and gold prices are up 0.9% to $1887.50/ozt. Oil prices ($91.77, -1.89, -2.0%), however, are down 2%.

The 2-yr yield, meanwhile, is down two basis points to 1.50% after touching 1.60% yesterday. The retracement suggests that the Fed’s policy shift might be priced in or that the geopolitical risks might play a factor in the Fed refraining from a 50-bps hike in March. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.1% to 95.75.

In earnings news, Dow components Walmart ( WMT 136.88, +3.35, +2.5%) and Cisco ( CSCO 55.82, +1.57, +2.9%) are up more than 2.0% in pre-market action after beating EPS estimates and announcing new share-repurchase plans. NVIDIA ( NVDA 259.44, -5.67, -2.1%) is heading the other way despite exceeding expectations and guiding Q1 revenue above consensus.

On the data front, investors will receive Housing Starts ( consensus 1.705 million) and Building Permits ( consensus 1.750 million) for January, weekly Initial Claims ( consensus 220,000), and the Philadelphia Fed Index for February ( consensus 20.4) at 8:30 a.m. ET.

In U.S. Corporate news:

  • NVIDIA (NVDA 259.44, -5.67): -2.1%% despite beating top and bottom-line estimates and guiding Q1 revenue above consensus. The company said supply remains constrained, but expects incremental improvements throughout FY23. NVDA was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Summit Insights.
  • Walmart (WMT 136.88, +3.35): +2.5% after beating top and bottom-line estimates and announcing plans to repurchases shares by at least $10 billion in FY23.
  • Cisco (CSCO 55.82, +1.57): +2.9% after beating EPS estimates and approving a new $15 billion share repurchase authorization. Cisco provided in-line guidance for fiscal Q3 and FY22.
  • DoorDash (DASH 118.09, +23.20): +24.5% after beating revenue estimates and providing an encouraging outlook. The company missed EPS estimates.
  • Fastly (FSLY 19.90, -9.03): -31.2% after issuing downside guidance for Q1/FY22 EPS and FY22 revenue. Fastly beat top and bottom-line estimates.

Reviewing overnight developments:

  • Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Thursday on a mostly higher note. Japan’s Nikkei: -0.8% Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: +0.3% China’s Shanghai Composite: +0.1% India’s Sensex: -0.2% South Korea’s Kospi: +0.5% Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: UNCH.

    • In economic data:
      • Japan’s December Core Machinery Orders 3.6% m/m (expected -1.8%; last 3.4%); 5.1% yr/yr (expected 0.6%; last 11.6%). January trade deficit JPY2.19 trln (expected deficit of JPY1.61 trln; last deficit of JPY583.30 bln). January Imports 39.6% yr/yr (expected 37.1%; last 41.1%) and Exports 9.6% yr/yr (expected 16.5%; last 17.5%)
      • Singapore’s Q4 GDP 10.7% qtr/qtr (last 10.7%); 6.1% yr/yr (expected 6.2%; last 5.9%). January trade surplus SGD5.022 bln (last surplus of SGD4.992 bln)
      • Australia’s January Employment Change 12,900 (expected -15,000; last 64,800) and full employment change -17,000 (last 41,500). January Unemployment Rate 4.2%, as expected (last 4.2%) and Participation Rate 66.2% (expected 66.0%; last 66.1%)
    • In news:
      • Japan raised its machine orders assessment to indicate that orders are picking up. Meanwhile, the country’s January trade deficit was at its widest level in eight years.
      • Press reports indicate that more than half of Japanese companies plan to raise overall pay, including bonuses, in FY22/23, while 66% of companies have no plans to raise base pay and will make decisions based on merit.
      • Hana Financial expects that the Bank of Korea will raise its base rate to 2.00% by the end of the year.
  • Major European indices trade on a mostly lower note. STOXX Europe 600: -0.1% Germany’s DAX: UNCH U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.6% France’s CAC 40: +0.2% Italy’s FTSE MIB: -0.2% Spain’s IBEX 35: -0.2%.

    • In economic data:
      • Italy’s January trade surplus EUR1.103 bln (last surplus of EUR4.179 bln)
      • Spain’s January trade deficit EUR5.30 bln (last deficit of EUR4.20 bln)
      • Swiss January trade surplus CHF3.177 bln (last surplus of CHF3.544 bln)
    • In news:
      • Reports of shelling in the Donbass region of Eastern Ukraine have weighed on sentiment even though this region has been a conflict area since 2014.
      • The Italian government is reportedly planning a EUR1 bln annual subsidy to the auto sector.
      • European Central Bank policymaker de Cos said that premature tightening of policy would add to negative consequences and that medium-term inflationary expectations need to be assessed.

U.S. equity futures:

  • S&P 500 Futures: -11 @ 4,464
  • DJIA Futures: -69 @ 34,866
  • Nasdaq 100 Futures: -50 @ 14,553


  • Europe: DAX UNCH, FTSE -0.6%, CAC +0.2%
  • Asia: Nikkei -0.8%, Hang Seng +0.3%, Shanghai Composite +0.1%


  • Crude Oil -1.61 @ 92.05
  • Nat Gas -0.090 @ 4.627
  • Gold +16.70 @ 1888.20
  • Silver +0.055 @ 23.660
  • Copper -0.0135 @ 4.5230
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