NFLX Earnings - 4/19

Netflix has their next earnings call 4/19.

@TheMadBeaker shared a CNBC headline that subscriber count could take a hit with the expression of Russian users due to the war. Per the below, Russian subscriber count was 192k in Q4 2021 and accounted for $6.7M in revenue.

There’s also the increased subscription cost to think about. Depending on how many subscribers they lost, revenue could get a nice bump.

I’m on my phone, so can’t pull the table out of the article, but I’ll add to this one I’m home.


Beaker also posted these which seems incredibly bearish for NFLX.

Not to mention the fact they increased their prices when inflation is hurting peoples pockets.


Throwing some relevant NFLX news in anticipation of ER and overall sentiment…

Next Games Tender (4/14/22)

CEO compensation

1 Like

Grabbed a 290p for 4/22, we will see how she does and maybe add to it.

NFLX seems to be trending with AMZN

Last ER Netflix beat expectations and met revenue, but poor guidance and large loss of subs caused a massive drop. Earning whisper shows a larger increase in rev this go round, undoubtedly from the sub price increase.

But I’m seeing estimates of lost subscribers from Russia to be 1 million total and many just filed a class action lawsuit against Netflix for being charged for a service they can’t use.

I want to believe this could have another massive drop. Probably not quite as drastic as January, but I personally am not seeing much of a case for bullish earnings. Unless I’m completely misreading the sentiment, Russia is priced in, and there’s been enough new subs with the sub price increase to overcome any negative.


Interesting article talking about upcoming earnings, presenting both a bull & bear case. Biggest problem is increased competition from Apple, Amazon, Disney and traditional media. Increasing rates constantly is not a sustainable business model when you are not offering anything new to the consumer. I think we will see decent numbers, but again poor guidance with lagging subscriber growth (compounded by both competition & inflation).


i think Beaker covered this on TF but for those looking at $DIS to dump in sympathy with $NFLX that wasn’t the case last ER. iirc while $NFLX lost subscribers $DIS gained during that same time. there may be an opportunity cost choice between these two services. plus, $DIS is not a true streaming play like $NFLX. just something to consider if playing post earnings.

1 Like

I posted very similar sentiment on the DIS thread. There is an opportunity here.

1 Like

As many times as my name was mentioned in this thread you would have expected me to take a put…

Feel free to give me shit the next 3 months for not doing it… :cry:

I’d expect the opposite out of you. No play over earnings.

Thanks for the kind words. Honestly for the movement I was expecting the options were simply unaffordable. And buying a super OTM lotto usually ends up not paying anything. So I didn’t take the plunge. At least I didn’t lose any money.

I think we will see some continued decline this week, especially with J Pow talking Thursday and likely a lot of inflation fears getting re-stoked.

1 Like

Meh. If they’d uttered the word split of buyback this would have gone very differently. Not worth the risk IMO.

In this case I don’t think it would make a difference. You can’t gloss over the fact that this a growth stock that’s not only not growing, but shrinking.

Losing subscribers is bad, and the guidance that they’ll lose another 2MM next quarter is a disaster. On the plus side, the stock has lost a lot of it’s value since it’s peak, and after today’s AH decline, it’s trading w/ a P/E in the 20s, so it seems like it’s at least trading at a reasonable valuation now.

1 Like