NFLX Earnings - 4/19

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Netflix has their next earnings call 4/19.

@TheMadBeaker shared a CNBC headline that subscriber count could take a hit with the expression of Russian users due to the war. Per the below, Russian subscriber count was 192k in Q4 2021 and accounted for $6.7M in revenue.

There’s also the increased subscription cost to think about. Depending on how many subscribers they lost, revenue could get a nice bump.

I’m on my phone, so can’t pull the table out of the article, but I’ll add to this one I’m home.

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Beaker also posted these which seems incredibly bearish for NFLX.

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Not to mention the fact they increased their prices when inflation is hurting peoples pockets.

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Throwing some relevant NFLX news in anticipation of ER and overall sentiment…

Next Games Tender (4/14/22)

CEO compensation

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Grabbed a 290p for 4/22, we will see how she does and maybe add to it.

NFLX seems to be trending with AMZN

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Last ER Netflix beat expectations and met revenue, but poor guidance and large loss of subs caused a massive drop. Earning whisper shows a larger increase in rev this go round, undoubtedly from the sub price increase.

But I’m seeing estimates of lost subscribers from Russia to be 1 million total and many just filed a class action lawsuit against Netflix for being charged for a service they can’t use.

I want to believe this could have another massive drop. Probably not quite as drastic as January, but I personally am not seeing much of a case for bullish earnings. Unless I’m completely misreading the sentiment, Russia is priced in, and there’s been enough new subs with the sub price increase to overcome any negative.

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Interesting article talking about upcoming earnings, presenting both a bull & bear case. Biggest problem is increased competition from Apple, Amazon, Disney and traditional media. Increasing rates constantly is not a sustainable business model when you are not offering anything new to the consumer. I think we will see decent numbers, but again poor guidance with lagging subscriber growth (compounded by both competition & inflation).

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i think Beaker covered this on TF but for those looking at $DIS to dump in sympathy with $NFLX that wasn’t the case last ER. iirc while $NFLX lost subscribers $DIS gained during that same time. there may be an opportunity cost choice between these two services. plus, $DIS is not a true streaming play like $NFLX. just something to consider if playing post earnings.

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I posted very similar sentiment on the DIS thread. There is an opportunity here.

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As many times as my name was mentioned in this thread you would have expected me to take a put…

Feel free to give me shit the next 3 months for not doing it… :cry:

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I’d expect the opposite out of you. No play over earnings.

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Thanks for the kind words. Honestly for the movement I was expecting the options were simply unaffordable. And buying a super OTM lotto usually ends up not paying anything. So I didn’t take the plunge. At least I didn’t lose any money.

I think we will see some continued decline this week, especially with J Pow talking Thursday and likely a lot of inflation fears getting re-stoked.

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Meh. If they’d uttered the word split of buyback this would have gone very differently. Not worth the risk IMO.

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In this case I don’t think it would make a difference. You can’t gloss over the fact that this a growth stock that’s not only not growing, but shrinking.

Losing subscribers is bad, and the guidance that they’ll lose another 2MM next quarter is a disaster. On the plus side, the stock has lost a lot of it’s value since it’s peak, and after today’s AH decline, it’s trading w/ a P/E in the 20s, so it seems like it’s at least trading at a reasonable valuation now.

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