Ticker: NVDA
Description of why you are requesting DD: Earnings Wednesday AH
Applicable links to news articles or Reddit analysis:
Looking at playing a strangle/straddle on this potentially and was wondering what everyone’s thoughts would be. Thinking of grabbing a $175 put/call tomorrow to ride IV a bit but will sell before close Wednesday and then a lotto weekly strangle to play into Thursday. Want to start to try a few of these out as I work to diversify trading and will post and update in my trading journal but wanted to see if other’s had thoughts on a play here being a bigger mover and the market potentially being sideways most of the week this might be a decent play that doesn’t take as close of attention as some scalping.
Thinking with our recent rally puts may be the play here, looks like flow is supporting that so far. Will keep an eye on signals and add what I find as well.
My thoughts here are try and scalp for some IV Monday into Tuesday and then play a strangle into Wednesday at close that expires Friday and hopefully the move is big enough to give a decent net return. Plan to take my initial position once IV settles down a bit after open.
Found some pretty big large put orders put in late last week, looks like big money might know something.
With the market action today and the large put order’s last week I ended up just taking puts on this today, current position 2 - 9/16 - $150’s @ $2.30 cost basis and up about 20% but letting ride a bit longer
Completely out now, profit was to good to pass up for one day. Will look to re-enter a position tomorrow but all cash going into close as I need to deal with some shit at work. Will update trading journal later tonight, great day.
Held 2 9/16’s overnight that are up about 11% right now, feel like the market has some downside ahead of us and hoping there’s enough of a gap down or drop early that I can cut one for a good profit and hold the other through ER but may reposition into a cheaper lotto play that expires Friday as this mega-cap scares me a bit and feel like my head might be in my ass since I’m the only one playing this. Looks like there were a lot of large sweep put orders once again today but overall flows don’t show a significant jump in put action, it did bump up a bit today and guessing there’s been some profit taking this week but also to note is call action has been on a gradual decline. More to come tomorrow, would love to get some other thoughts even though I changed from initially playing IV on this to puts I think there may be a play here and will be curious to get JB’s thoughts going into Thursday. It held $172 most of the day today so that area seems to be one to watch going into the end of the week especially if you’ll be playing around ER into Thursday.
I’ll be watching this very closely come Thursday morning. The most likely smart play if you want to hold through earnings would be to play the sympathy such as AMD or SOXL unless you got profit locked up and want to let a couple lottos ride. When I look at the earnings plays I typically try to look at the segment or sector. Such as here AMD had a beat and dropped in premarket then went on a terror into open. INTC missed. And dropped. NVDA is pretty beat down right now currently sitting only a few dollars over the 52 week low. They likely aren’t going to miss so bad they aren’t a valuable company anymore. Good luck on however you play this hope it prints for you.
Forgot to mention this. They have recently already guided down lowering expectations. As we have noticed in retail with WMT and TGT lowered guidance beats are still beats in the eyes of the market. As noted in this article below. They are essentially priced in.
Thanks for the replies, much appreciated! I think this will be a great play for Thursday one we say which way it’s going to move but my gains this week have mainly been following general market/spy. Good points above, I think I’ll cut my two puts tomorrow and focus on a few of the other ER scalps if I have time and save this play for Thursday. It does seem like they’ve stayed ahead of things a bit like some of the others and I agree they didn’t move as some were expecting because of this.
Cut my overnight holds when I freed up at work, didn’t get max gains but still cut for a nice profit. Seems there’s some strength to this today so I’ll be watching into ER and may take on gambler at close or might just wait and play the trend tomorrow as this thing could go either way.
This one ended up working out as it felt, did great trading the market trend all week on it but have been hurt too many times to hold as I had a pile of shit on my desk at work today and couldn’t watch closely today. May try and play this one tomorrow for trend.
