NXTD Nxt-Id, Inc. gathering information

Ticker: NXTD

Description of why you are requesting DD:
Was going through some low float tickers with options and came across NXTD. There’s some OI built up, but only at the $4 strike for some reason. Short float is notable, history of high volatility, and the price is near monthly lows.

EDIT: so one of the reasons I was so interested in this play was because of all the OI built at only the $4 strike. I suspected a whale might be building up a position. Now I suspect it was /u/repos39 (the guy who made the Reddit DD) as he says in his post he has 1000s of calls. Although I don’t see that he posted a screenshot of position yet.

Applicable links to news articles or Reddit analysis: Seems like it pumped a bit on this news a week ago

https://www.news-graphic.com/news/state/nxt-id-awarded-a-u-s-general-services-administration-contract-to-distribute-personal-emergency-response/article_250479f2-2a48-544e-9fac-e625720fa076.html







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I got in as soon as I saw the repos post for 3c at 0.45.
Sold at 0.65 same day.

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Cross-linking the DD posted to reddit by @repos39

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New OI is out and the OI on Jan calls almost 6x’d from yesterday

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Hey guys,

Repos posted an update DD regarding this:

https://reddit.com/r/BigBrainCapital/comments/rn1669/nxtd_holiday_cheer_update/

I decided to take a look myself. Be gentle, I’m new to DD.

Gamma

Although my pictures have the same OI as posted above, they also have the updated call volume from yesterday. See below:

The volume on calls is absolutely nutty. Lets say half of the volume on each strike is 50% sells (which it probably isn’t since the run more than likely caused retail FOMO buys). This would leave the OI exactly as is.

That’s 20% of the float on ITM contracts and if the whole chain were to become ITM that would be 30.4% of the float needing to be hedged… with OI exactly as it was before the massive volume increase on Friday.

That is for the possible gamma side of things.

Shorts

The shorts side is interesting as well.

Pictured above is the SI given by Mimir.

Pictured below is from Yahoo Finance.

As you can see, there is quite a difference. A 400k share difference actually. Yahoo’s numbers are from Nov 30th. Assuming Mimir’s is more up to date since it pulls from Ortex, this shows that there is an almost 45% increase in shorts since November 30th.

Not only that, but with the price being $4 at the time, they were down $1.8mill or 34% with their average price being $2.63. NXTD closed AH with a nice 15% run and is sitting at $4.61.

Things are heating up on both the short and gamma side of things.

HOWEVER, keep in mind that with volume being 12.3M on Friday, over 3x the average and almost 2x the float, it is possible that covering and/or hedging has happened or has begun.

I have no positions but will more than likely look to buy in on Monday at support if possible. The setup, in my opinion, looks great.

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12M SHARES seems small compared to volume spikes since 10/18. The 50m volume spike after the government contract I think was some aggressive shorting to control the price. So new shorts entered hard and capped the $2.78 a week ago.

Posting my thoughts. I see this as an explosive gamma play. Almost all of the chain for jan 21 is currently ITM. With a float of 3.81m this thing can move extremely quickly. Past highs were around $37, $20, $11, $14, $13, $8… the current price is $4.61, the chain goes up to 7.5 and so far only 3 strikes remain OTM…. with OI stacking and as strikes keep going ITM and this float gets eaten up i dont see a reason why this wont pop off, sentiment has been growing substantially this weekend for this ticker and personally i see lots of potential at this price point. Calls are blowing puts out of the water, no one is expecting this thing to go down. Will be looking to enter with a small position this week.

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Just a quick tidbit on this particular one:

It looks as though retail will have rolled out of the run as most of the volume has gone into near OTM and OTM strikes on the day. Just be wary, this one is likely done for now. Like PROG, you can have another run considering these are not expiring soon, but it generally requires a pullback and slight consolidation.

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Options Chain as of December 27 market close:

Let’s check the OI again tomorrow morning to confirm if options are being rolled from ITM to OTM.

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I mean…the volume for the ITM options was also really high today. Looks like ITM OI is starting to represent a pretty sizable amount of the float. I guess the ITM volume could be sells and the OTM volume could be buys, hence the rolling, so we’ll see tomorrow. The price action also seems promising though - steady build-up in price with good support at 4.5 today at least when I was watching

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12/28/21 OI before market open

Roughly 15,000 Jan calls ITM, changes to about 12,000 if it opens under $4.50 today.

ITM calls are being rolled out a lil bit

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Seeing confirmation of the roll on this one. Like I said, it can run again because that OI will likely stay on the chain for the most part, but it’ll probably consolidate for a period before doing so.

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