This is not financial advice. I am dumb. Do your own DD. Watch your entries.
COVAXIN is a vaccine for COVID-19 which is currently approved for use in 9 countries. It is co-developed by Ocugen ($OCGN) and Bharat Biotech. It is due for WHO emergency use approval this week. There are currently 7 vaccines with WHO approval.
Emergency use authorization from the WHO expedites approval and supply, and is a key component to globalizing a vaccine. EUA vaccines are required for travel to the United States.
My Postions:
Shares at $8.98 average
$10C10/29 at $.62 average
Keep in mind, we do not know when approval will happen this week. Watch Twitter (searches: $OCGN, COVAXIN, WHO EUA) Theta decay can affect these calls, which can be mitigated with10/22 expiries. I am in small with the intent to add on Tuesday and Wednesday.
I currently do not have a price target, but speculate that it would jump a couple dollars upon approval based on a previous vaccine approval of this nature. One vaccine to receive this approval was manufactured by Sinopharm, which is a company owned by the CCP. A publicly traded subsidiary, “Sinopharm Group” jumped from $15.10 on approval to $16.80 and ran to 18.30 over the following month.
edited for clarity: Sinopharm jumped $1.70, not “from” $1.70.
edit2: I’ll be selling the news and not holding afterwards. JB made a post that highlights some key information. This isn’t going to run hard, we are only looking for a couple bucks.
Ocugen has only obtained the rights to Bharat Biotech’s Covaxin vaccine in two countries — the U.S. and Canada. The latter has too few people to generate enough profits to justify the valuation of OCGN stock. And the only way that Ocugen can ever sell Covaxin in the U.S. is if the shot is approved by the FDA. That means its top and bottom lines hinge on the FDA’s decision. Likewise, an emergency authorization by the World Health Organization (WHO) will not increase Ocugen’s top or bottom lines by one cent. And any approval of Covaxin by countries other than the U.S. and Canada will not impact Ocugen’s financial results at all.
Edit 3: I took profits this morning at open and will potentially re-enter smaller, at another good entry point.
Edit 4: I had re-entered with an 8.98 cost average and hold $10 10/29c at an .62c average. It looks like future dated documents with the same verbiage as other EUA vaccines have appeared on the WHO website. Approval appears to be tomorrow.
