Are you really that surprised that I am opening a thread for this?
Jokes aside, I really should’ve wrote something up yesterday related to why I bought calls on PFE after they dropped 3% which I believed was a huge overreaction to the news related to Zanac or w/e it was called. I discussed opening calls on trading-floor but didn’t make a forum thread. The calls tripled in value today at the peak.
Anyway, I’ll try to make use of this thread when I see an opportunity.
[size=4]Chart Update[/size]
Today was an incredible day for PFE as 3% gains are huge for PFE options which have low IV. Today PFE broke above the multi-day range of $49 to $50 and seems to have found $50 as support for now which is very bullish for continued movement upwards. On Monday I will be watching for $50 as an entry point.
For PFE daytrades I generally like to take about a week out with a strike price equal to the stock price +/- $1.00 max. So if PFE is at $50, I’m looking at 49c to 51c, but usually closer to the mid.
I closed my weeklies today but held 10/21 50c which I purchased yesterday for 1.52 a piece in my longer term account. Note that yesterday there was an unusual order of 25,000 call options for around 5M, for the November 50c.
I’m surprised that PFE fell back into the 49 to 50 range once again today. I haven’t entered anything today. However, I’m interested in calls at ~49.4 and ~49.00 support, which I would take profit at ~50 test.
PFE just broke over 50 resistance. Interested in taking calls at a confirmation hold above 50, such as a double bottom or inverse h&s pattern off the 50 becoming support.
I’d be looking at calls for this Friday, 50c, 50.5c, or 51c strike.
One thing i dont see discussed that much in public is the US drug pricing reform that was hidden in the Inflation Reduction Act. This will impact starting, 2026 and later in 2029, big pharma heavily and for this reason they tried to impede the reform.
For the first time, the federal health secretary would be able to directly negotiate the prices of certain expensive drugs each year for Medicare. This starts in 2026 with 10 drugs and increases to 20 drugs by 2029. To qualify for negotiation, the drugs would have to be on the market for several years.
Looking at the medicares big drugs in 2020, expensive part D drugs and their revenue 2026 i see Pfizer less imapcted vs. other big pharma, the exception is the co-promotion of Eliquis together with BMY.
I realize it’s going to be years for this to take effect, but will be keeping an eye on XBI / LABU for possible puts as I’m sure the sentiment will kick in much sooner.
This isn’t good for PFE but it’s weathering the news pretty well today, staying within range of ~49.40 to 50.00. However, because of the news I was and am hesitant to pick up calls at 49.40.
Watching with interest at this support level for PFE here. But I will hold off here. Tomorrow if this level holds again I will probably enter calls for next Friday, 49.5c or 50c.
Reason I am not entering now is because market is closing in about 20 minutes, and I am unsure how the market may digest FOMC minutes and the Biden admin news posted earlier.
It has a decent amount of option liquidity, and IV is decently low too. Unless Pfizer does some damage control early enough in the morning, and even if it does, the stock could take a hit.
And in sympathy, BNTX and MRNA could both also get hit. Worth keeping an eye out for in the morning. They have decent option volume too.
Fwiw, I don’t think there is anything that would be a body blow to Pfizer here - it kinda gets an exec to get on record about the revolving door, but the research sounds like stuff all advanced pharmas do.
Part two came out and its just the guy freaking out and saying he just lied about all of it to impress his date blah blah. To your point they could probably use the excuse they all do that “for the good of the people.” I am thinking about taking some puts a month or two out solely on the bet of an official “investigation” announcement. Whether that be from house republicans, doj, whatever. Counter side of that would be big pharma owns the politicians, as stated in the video, as well as the press so they wont report on it and politicians won’t do anything about it. Veering a little to close into politics but I say that just as a point to consider why puts would not work out. Tough to say cause this downtrend could just be pricing in the lower expected earnings of which they could beat.
I’m bein a real good fence sitter right now but i’m leaning towards them having a nice red day from headlines post earnings going “look how much money they made from mutating covid for profit!!!”
the dates and times threw met off on this discussion as I thought it was all from today. <@768562231964860426> any way to adjust this or just ignore and moving forward it will work itself out. I think this news is bearish and shows more borrowing but I am just reading headlines. Wonder how much PFE is struggling now with the rise and fall of covid and such. Helped the banks out more than them but a lot of risk.
