There are a lot of stocks that have been flying in recent days due to the expectation that inflation has peaked and a fed pivot is “imminent”. Let’s use this thread to discuss both sides of the trade.
If CPI comes in hot and shatters the “inflation has peaked” narrative. We can expect to see many of the high growth and speculative names to come back down to earth.
If CPI comes at or beats expectations: This will be a strong confirmation that the worst of inflation might be behind us and I expect for a lot of high-growth/speculative names to fly as a result.
Good thread. I’d expect if it comes in lower than expected and market pushes up banking stocks would move.
As everyone is pretty certain the rates are not coming down til next year at soonest. That leads to more profitability from the lending sector as always. WFC JPM BAC etc.
If it comes in hot I’d think tech gets hit hardest since they seem to be the only segment for most part doing hiring freezes and lay offs. This could be in large part due to oversized growth in last few years. Moreso than their current economics. Meaning they out paced their growth with their hiring trying to sustain continued growth.
I agree. I do think we are at a peak if not close just based on my local situation. Prices have not risen noticeably in the past few months as far as I can tell. With jobs coming in strong and spending continues, if CPI is close to expectations I’m watching BAC to run, and expect spy to at least have an am bounce.
AFRM: Hot CPI will likely send this crashing to the low 20s or high teens where it has been hanging out for the last few months as borrowing and funding costs will continue to increase as the fed gets even more aggressive with monetary tightening. On the other hand, we could see AFRM’s price soar due to short covering and general sentiment. As of today (though delayed from Ortex), 17% of the float is sold short and the short’s average price is $17.23 with the last traded price (during market hours) being $32.58.
I’ve been starting to stock up on SLDP for a Solid State Battery play (mid to long term), price is beat down nicely.
SLDP had earnings today (Tuesday after hours) so earnings catalyst is out of the way. I feel hot CPI and angry JPow can drop this nicely to better prices under $6. Was under 6 as recently as July 26.
Good CPI, SLDP might catch a nice run up as earnings was decent and a strong overall market gravity in the case of good CPI.
