The S&P 500 futures trade four points, or 0.1%, below fair value in front of a big batch of economic data. The market is trying to preserve yesterday’s de-escalation rally, even though reports indicate that there’s little evidence to suggest Russia has partially withdrawn troops.
The market is being optimistic on that issue along with the pandemic issue after Moderna’s ( MRNA 148.72, -2.40, -1.6%) CEO said it’s “reasonable” to assume that the U.S. is in the final stages of the pandemic, according to CNBC .
As for today’s data, investors will receive Retail Sales for January (Briefing.com consensus 1.9%) and Export/Import Prices for January at 8:30 a.m. ET, followed by Industrial Production (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%) and Capacity Utilization (Briefing.com consensus 76.8) for January at 9:15 a.m. ET.
After the open, the NAHB Housing Market Index for February (Briefing.com consensus 83) and Business Inventories for December (Briefing.com consensus 2.1%) will be available at 10:00 a.m. ET, followed by the FOMC Minutes from the January meeting at 2:00 p.m. ET.
The minutes might be dated given the quantity of Fedspeak since the last meeting. On a related note, most economists polled by Reuters expect the Fed to hike rates by 25 basis points in March instead of 50 basis points like the fed funds futures market currently expects.
U.S. Treasuries trade little changed. The 2-yr yield is up one basis point to 1.58%, and the 10-yr yield is down one basis point to 2.04%. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.1% to 95.85. WTI crude futures remain elevated above $94 per barrel ($94.62, +1.34, +1.5%).
In U.S. Corporate news:
- Airbnb (ABNB 186.23, +6.16): +3.4% after beating top and bottom-line estimates, guiding Q1 revenue above consensus, and saying it expects to achieve the company’s first positive Q1 Adjusted EBITDA.
- Roblox (RBLX 62.03, -11.27): -15.4% after providing underwhelming Q4 earnings results.
- Upstart (UPST 134.99, +25.88): +23.7% after beating top and bottom-line estimates, guiding revenue for Q1 and FY22 above consensus, and announcing a share repurchase program for up to $400 million.
- ViacomCBS (VIAC 32.00, -3.99): -11.1% after missing EPS estimates on above-consensus revenue. In addition, the company is rebranding to Paramount Global.
- Moderna (MRNA 148.72, -2.40): -1.6% after the company’s CEO said it’s “reasonable” to assume that the U.S. is in the final stages of the pandemic, according to CNBC .
Reviewing overnight developments:
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Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the midweek session on a mostly higher note. Japan’s Nikkei: +2.2% Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: +1.5% China’s Shanghai Composite: +0.6% India’s Sensex: -0.3% South Korea’s Kospi: +2.0% Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: +1.1%.
- In economic data:
- China’s January CPI 0.4% m/m (expected 0.5%; last -0.3%); 0.9% yr/yr (expected 1.0%; last 1.5%). January PPI 9.1% yr/yr (expected 9.5%; last 10.3%)
- Japan’s February Reuters Tankan Index 6 (last 17). December Tertiary Industry Activity Index 0.4% m/m (last 0.4%)
- South Korea’s January Unemployment Rate 3.6% (last 3.8%)
- Australia’s January MI Leading Index 0.1% m/m (last 0.0%)
- In news:
- South Korea added more than a million jobs in January, representing the largest single-month increase in about 22 years.
- Speculation about more easing from the People’s Bank of China continued after the release of cooler than expected inflation figures for January. However, China Securities Journal speculated that loan prime rates will be kept steady in February.
- In economic data:
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Major European indices trade near their flat lines. STOXX Europe 600: UNCH Germany’s DAX: UNCH U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.3% France’s CAC 40: +0.1% Italy’s FTSE MIB: -0.3% Spain’s IBEX 35: -0.1%.
- In economic data:
- Eurozone’s December Industrial Production 1.2% m/m (expected 0.3%; last 2.4%); 1.6% yr/yr (expected -0.5%; last -1.4%)
- U.K.'s January CPI -0.1% m/m (expected -0.2%; last 0.5%); 5.5% yr/yr (expected 5.4%; last 5.4%). January Core CPI -0.4% m/m, as expected (last 0.5%); 4.4% yr/yr (expected 4.3%; last 4.2%). January Input PPI 0.9% m/m, as expected (last 0.1%) and Output PPI 1.2% m/m (expected 0.6%; last 0.3%)
- In news:
- German Chancellor Scholz said that admitting Ukraine into NATO is not on the agenda, and reports indicated that the promise, which should be welcomed by Russia, will be put into writing.
- U.K.'s CPI increased at its fastest yr/yr rate in 30 years, inviting speculation about more rate hikes from the Bank of England.
- Bank of France Governor Villeroy de Galhau said that the ECB’s asset purchases could end in Q3.
- In economic data:
U.S. equity futures:
- S&P 500 Futures: -10 @ 4,462
- DJIA Futures: -79 @ 34,910
- Nasdaq 100 Futures: -31 @ 14,590
Overseas:
- Europe: DAX UNCH, FTSE -0.3%, CAC +0.1%
- Asia: Nikkei +2.2%, Hang Seng +1.5%, Shanghai Composite +0.6%
Commodities:
- Crude Oil +1.32 @ 93.39
- Nat Gas +0.305 @ 4.611
- Gold -1.15 @ 1855.05
- Silver +0.100 @ 23.442
- Copper +0.0175 @ 4.5490