Making a topic for this, spy-qqq-earnings chat is bearish. Not sure where they will hit on earnings, based on Webull their earnings already look like they are expected to be horrible/worse than last quarter:
I (or really, spy-chat, but I agree) think the big driver for a bearish move will likely be a revision downwards of their 2022 guidance they included with last quarter’s results.
They need to do $1.5B in revenue per quarter to hit their goal, if they even hit $800M target. If they don’t, they will likely be behind, and won’t make it.
There are a lot of people selling their Peletons on ebay, FB marketplace, craigslist, etc., but I don’t have good data on trends (but feel free to look into this and add to the thread please!)
Keep in mind options prices already looked jacked, so if you do get into this, don’t get killed by IV crush please.
Spy chat also found that website traffic and Google trends are down. There are big supply chain problems and while attempts have been taken to fix them the steps have been very expensive and cost the company hundreds of millions.
I think the supply chain issue is gonna hit them hard. I wonder if they have a shortage of replacement parts. If they do it could cause people who’s machines that don’t currently work to cancel or put there subscriptions on hold.
I mentioned this in spy chat… and I’ve never posted this twitter sentiment data (cause half the time it’s fucking wrong) but I guess it can be useful to support/confirm DD.
Here is the data for when I said “Pton bearish from Twitter data side”
I’ll look to post more if it supports or even contradicts whatever DD is going on. But it’s twitter… so always with a grain of salt. Just another data point.
