With CPI coming out on Friday and Jerome speaking next Wednesday 12/15, it may be time to start thinking like a bear. We saw what happened the last time he spoke. I know almost everything jumped off a cliff, but maybe we all saw some on our watchlist they made us say damn and are now back to their overvalued prices…
Two for me were RNG (Ring…the doorbells) and MNDY (Monday…like Slack).
Bull case…the fall may not be as hard this time as it won’t quite take the market off guard or he may be more gentle because of last time.
Personally I’m looking to pick up UVXY calls going into FRI CPI data + Monday JPOW. Every time those folks open their mouths the market trembles like a castle built on foundations of sand.
I’m also hedging more actively, and ‘diversifying directionally’ not just across sectors/equities, but also using more spreads, for example I was running those on BKKT this week, with the sold calls expiry this Friday, buy side calls expiry DEC23, and legging out on those pops on the buy side (sell to close) & then the morning of the expiry date (or earlier If the asset tanks enough) I can buy to close for cheap or just let it ash to nothing and expire.
Spreads, paperhanding most of my plays (quickly taking profits because of market chop), and picking up UVXY calls hedges and generally hedging my long positions with some OTM puts + selling CC’s. I like those types of plays right now employing going into those big talks/data reports.
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My personal read, I feel like omicron scare/overreaction selloff especially in spec tech stocks creating oversold conditions combined with some can-kick on the debt ceiling could alleviate some of that selloff/risk-off response that has been happening with Fed Talks/Hawkish JPOW personality inversion, at least pushing back some of the uncertainty. Like you said, I think that the chop/drop from those could be less aggressive this time around but I’m still going to hedge.
Senate vote on S.J. Res 33, the Debt Ceiling Resolution [emphasis theirs] is in a few hours. If it passes it will still need to go to the House of Representatives, but I respect the fuck out of Nancy’s ability to get fuckers to sign shit. Slay, queen.
Delta>Omicron. Now that I got my opinion out there, it should definitely be on radar that US retailers are starting to require masks once again despite us being at a 52-w high 60.9% fully vaccinated. 5 million doses have been administered to kids with no significant red lights so that is also pretty litty poggers.
I’ll be looking for a SPY swing play off of intraday lows on a calendar spread targeting mid Jan exp. Gamble size position.