$RBT - A new "trash" deSPAC

Starting a thread as there’s been some continued interest in $RBT aka Rubicon Technologies (Formerly known as $FOUN), a waste and recycling company who have developed an app to provide on-demand trash pickup. Here’s a quick run-down:

*Completed merger and ticker changed on 08/16

  • Down 50% since SPAC merger (Currently at $5.02 as of time of writing)
  • No NAV floor (Previously $10.15 per share)
  • Current Free Float of 31.63MM shares
  • Has an options chain (little to no open interest currently)

A quick note for those thinking of playing this for redemptions, there are some rumours circulating on Twitter regarding the redemption numbers being in the 73-76% range which would not be an ideal number for a movement we have seen like with FAZE and GETY, although the numbers have not been officially released yet.




Trash brokerage! This is literally my neck of the woods. While we’re playing the despac element of this deal, there is some information you need to know about this organization. If they pop, by nature of being who they are they may present significant puts opportunities in the future.

Trash is already difficult because of three major players also in the industry:

  • Waste Management (WM)
  • Republic Services (RSG)
  • Waste Connections (WCN)

Over half of the landfills in the US are privately owned, and these three own the lion’s share of them. They also own the most trucks, the most equipment, and a huge portion of the market share for residential, commercial, and construction and demolition segments. That then puts trash companies into two categories:

  • Asset Light - like Rubicon, they own little to no actual trash equipment
  • Asset Heavy - like the big boys who own much of the infrastructure needed to run a trash company

Rubicon’s primary focus as a business is in the SMB (small to medium sized business) and residential sectors. They provide “technologies” (that are in essence, broker agreements) to call on trash haulers who are already in a geographic area to provide services to their customers. This allows them to dispatch even potentially Waste Management or Republic to pick up your trash, all under a Rubicon Contract. They in turn provide a markup such that you only need to call them. This is a great model when you’re a corporate environmental or facilities executive who has to manage the waste for thousands of locations, but introduces an unnecessary middleman and markup when you’re just trying to get trash picked up at your house.

This concept of brokerage isn’t new. WM, RSG, and WCN all have their own brokerage divisions where they manage national chains or the relationships which each other’s broker team. Those broker teams also deal with Rubicon, facilitating their one-off contracts with these SMB clients. This allows all of the big name brokers to review the types of work that Rubicon is doing and effectively RFP with the larger portion of the base at time of contract expiration (which they also have visibility into).

Imagine trying to be a disrupter in an industry where all of your massive competitors have perfect visibility into every step you take, when your contracts expire, who your customers are, and they are dependent upon you to perform. This is the position that Rubicon is in.

They are delivering an exception digital experience in an industry that is largely untouched by it, but they are in a constant state of vulnerability because of how they do business. Given that they switched from trash brokerage to technology as their primary selling grounds, it is my belief that they are trying to be acquired by one of the big three listed above. However, their true value will only be as much as their technology, and all of the big three above are in the throes of significant multi-million dollar digitalization initiatives.

The allure of Rubicon as an aquisition target down the line will start to diminish as these companies’ digitalization efforts mature, their more lucrative contracts will likely be scooped up by the big guys at a significant discount, and their value will drop quickly.

I have little to no faith in the outlook of this company. The big three trash haulers in the United States are nothing to play around with.


Here is the investor presentation for the DeSpac: https://www.rubicon.com/wp-content/uploads/Rubicon-Investor-Presentation-July-2022.pdf

The financials are not great:

However, there are actual financials, unlike 90% of the other deSpac yahoos. Revenue is $580M, although there is a operating loss of 73M. Unclear what market cap is, pending release of float numbers. EV is supposed to be 1.7B.

Took 9/16 7.5C/12.5C bullish call spreads for 0.25, flipped a third of them for 0.50 already, and will ride the rest for a while in case there is a rally when redemption numbers come out.

Option chain somewhat wonky and not that deep though, so may need patience to liquidate.

1 Like

For what its worth too I hope this thing pops off. I won’t play the redemption but I would love the opportunity to ride it on the way back down.


Great DD, if I may add one thing; They also have market share in the recycling side of things, Recycling is exempt from the franchise agreements for waste hauling that most counties/municipalities have in place. Allowing them to come in and set up a logistics resource for large and small corps usually who want a single entity handling a national acct. with commodities that generate revenue back to the customer as well enticing them away from using the local garbage providers.


Waste and Republic also own a large number of the material recovery facilities that many of these asset light brokers use. Their brokerage divisions also handle rebates for national customers for high value materials like cardboard bales, metal, and some C&D debris. Many of the national contracts that I’ve seen explicitly call for:

  • Rebates when appropriate
  • Evidence of diversion at landfill or transfer stations
  • Optimization of recycling services

Many of these larger companies have also invested in AI tech to scan rolloff (compactor and open tops) loads and determine distribution of types of debris to determine if there are rebate opportunities for their customers.

Rubicon did successfully secure some recycling franchise rights even in Texas (right outside of WM headquarters) which helps position them, but again keep in context how many franchises are held by the big boys (Republic has the entire state of Idaho, for example)


You are absolutely right and very knowledgeable , I just saw trash/garbage/landfill and wanted to make sure everyone was aware of the recycling side as well. At least in my area they seem to compete quite a bit with each other, some accounts I deal with are changing hands back and forth every couple years.


Ohhh damn it, these last few weeks have been like 21 all over again. Ni says despac I say how high

This topic was automatically closed 14 days after the last reply. New replies are no longer allowed.