My first DD, and I apologize beforehand for its shortcomings.
RDBX was brought up this morning on TF as a SS candidate and I dismissed it immediately due to the number of shares short vs average daily volume.
When it was brought to my attention it was sitting around $5, and closed at almost $6. I still think it’s a poor short squeeze, but I’ll lay out the information for community discussion.
Per Ortex, the shares short are 1.4M. The shorts are currently ~60% underwater, but the short volume is only 1.4M, vs a float of 12+M, and a daily average volume of over 18M. Today alone, by 10-11AM EST the ticker had over 21M volume. My point being, shorts could have covered without notice given the total volume vs short shares.
This ticker has has also been pushed by PnD servers, surely leading to its increased volume.
If anyone has any other information to add, please do so. This is a general discussion about short squeezes with an auxiliary focus on RDBX. I am very good at regurgitating information I’ve absorbed, and everything I’ve absorbed from this server tells me to disregard this ticker at this time. I’d love to be proved wrong.
ETA: RDBX finished today at 101M volume. We’ll get more information monday, but I’ll be shocked if some shorts didn’t cover or they didn’t double down today.
Thanks, MENoir. I’m curious if anyone knows a way of measuring how the underlying would potentially move if the current % of FF shorted was to cover. Also, why is Mimir showing 51% of the FF is shorted but the float is around 10-12M - shouldn’t the Short Shares show 5-6M in that case??? Thanks in advanced.
Ortex data is “real-time”–2 days back.
It’s also estimated by Ortex from several sources they don’t publicize, so take it with a grain of salt.
I’d say, this is a good candidate for a short squeeze, yes, based on the numbers.
As with any penny stocks being pumped, this is high-risk and even riskier when you know other P&D are already on it.
I rarely play these things anymore and can’t recommend it to others–but it’s never a bad idea to go for profit.
So do you think the discrepency is the # of shares short? Because 1.4M is obviously not 50% of 11M.
Like I said we’ll have more info Monday, definitely Tuesday, and I’ll probably keep an eye on it. Won’t personally be entering because no options, but if it’s a legit short squeeze candidate it’ll be educational.
Conq helpfully glanced at this and pulled up some other float reports. Yahoo Finance reports the flost at <3M. However, Finviz, TD, Morningstar, and the WSJ all report figures between 9-12.5M while reporting similar total short volume figures.
Since the play is predicated on 50% of the float being short, which doesn’t appear to be accurate (closer to 11-14%), this ticker is being pushed by Cad and other PnD groups, and given the small total short volume vs recent daily volumes (101M on Friday), I’m gonna double-down on my original opinion in that this is unlikely to actually squeeze.
That said, the price did go up 20% on a bloody market day, so that’s not to say retail won’t pump it and you could potentially ride the wave. Cad has been in since $3 or earlier, so you’d be running the risk of him giving the sell signal at any moment.
I hope some of you did play this and got some greens.
We don’t want to get discouraged playing any possibly profitable momentum (be it down or upward).
Moving forward, Let’s just mark/tag such plays as possible hives for P&Dumpers so as to encourage others to exit immediately when profits are good.
E.g., if dumper cadpussy loves 40%, you exit at 20-30% gain.
I’ll be sure to join such plays next time. Doubt there will ever be shortage of such.
Should this touch $6 again, expect lots of buying power to come in.
Even more so at $4.
Next ER isn’t until June, so lots of time to swing the price up and down.
Get more eyes and ears on this, as it can easily replace AMC as the new best cheap P&D–for similar retarded reasons.
Options chain is out, only monthlies right now and the chain only goes to $10. Will be watching, I’d imagine the premiums are gonna be nuts today but if this drops to those $6 or $4 levels I’ll probably buy a couple.
Reddit seems split, not a lot of talk outside the RDBX sub, and the sentiment seemed to be that most posters feel this hurts their “squeeze” because these things always turn back down once options are enabled. Some conspiracy talk about exercising options giving you fake shares and whatnot.
The next OPEX is only 2 weeks away at this point in regards to any kind of gamma movement, and the float is somewhere around 10-12M, I dunno if this has enough sentiment to load the chain enough to “force” any movement. Options alone might bring in more volume, since a lot of people don’t even look at plays unless they have options. Either way, it’s something to watch, and I’ll try to keep an eye on it.
The real reason options being available pushes the price down is because it enables retail to make bearish bets on the stock, which does indeed put downward pressure on the stock. For the most part these types of stocks are impossible to borrow so you can’t outright short it (and a lot of retail don’t have margin accounts), but as soon as puts are available everybody can buy those.
One thing that some of the dumber redditers don’t understand is not everyone is on the same side of the trade.
So RDBX didn’t completely shit the bed today. Steadily fell from $7 to ~$6.15 today at close. I’m not seeing any news, but somewhere around 5:15-5:30 in AH it shit itself and is now down to $5.65.
Call volume today far outweighed put volume, with 5.4k calls vs 323 puts. Will check tomorrow to see what the stock is doing and what translated to OI. At these levels I don’t like puts because of IV crush and the drop you need to breakeven – IV is mid-to-high 200s for all strikes.
A slightly further drop or even holding this position could tempt me for a couple calls. Remember the levels Ni called out, we’re below $6 now.
IV is a bit absurd, around 200%, but may be able to get puts soon to ride it down to the $3-4 level, which should happen in days, and then down to the $2 handle in a few weeks?
Eventually, if the SI levels persist, the pumpers will try again. We can look forward to loading LEAPS-like 2Cs in a month or so and then just wait for the next pump.
Incidentally, the massive IV skew toward puts tells us where MMs think price is going - back to $2. 105DTE Aug options:
