Busy day but wanted to get a post started about this leading up to most of the big public groups reporting ER next week for auto retail. I eat/sleep/breathe in this space and even though they may report some decent Q3 ER there’s major headwinds in front of us due to rates hampering demand. It’s getting tougher than it has been over the last three years and I think the valuations of these companies are all about to come down as ER normalize. Parts of the country still have pent up new car demand (the Midwest) but the coasts are a total different story from my own recent analysis and some stories from friends that have stores in those parts of the country. It may not hit ER this round but it’s coming and there’s some money to be made here. I started looking at options chains for all the big groups and there isn’t much volume in the chain but I’m sure there’s a way to play this. Will add more as I find time this week and over the weekend but at least wanted to get this thought started. CVNA is the only ticker I can find w/ volume on the chain but it’s used only and is a meme so I think there’s a better way to play this (even though I do think CVNA has some room to move down as well it’s been my theta gang baby all year so not sure how I’ll play that yet).
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Autonation (AN) - 10/27 pre-market
Asbury (ABG) - 10/24 (pre-market), Penske Automotive (PAG) - 10/25 (pre-market), Group One Automotive (GPI) - 10/25 (pre-market), Lithia (LAD) - 10/25 (pre-market), Sonic Automotive (SAH) - 10/26 (pre-market), Autonation (AN) - 10/27 (pre-market), Carvana (CVNA) - 11/2 (after hours)