ROIV - Betting on Vivek

Vivek Ramaswamy is a 38 year old biotech entrepreneur running for the GOP nomination. He’s also been gaining ground extremely quickly, and is already beginning to beat out Ron DeSantis in several recent polls.

Take some time to research him if you haven’t heard of him yet. His campaign is very different from the rest of the GOP field, and he has recently earned high praise for his campaign from conservative figures like Musk and Tucker Carlson. Trump has also praised him.

Personally I think he could go far, maybe not all the way to the White House, but his name is already being discussed as a potential contender as Trump’s VP (or more likely a cabinet pick, think Pete Buttigeig becoming Transportation Secretary).

Prediction markets give him a 22% shot at becoming the GOP nominee and I believe he will only gain traction after tomorrow night’s debate.

Vivek is also a billionaire, and built his fortune by founding and leading his biotech firm Roivant Sciences, which focused on early stage drug candidates that were often overlooked by larger pharma companies. Though he stepped down as chair of the company a few years ago:

He still retains a 7.17% stake in Roivant Sciences (ROIV)

This is a significant position in a relatively small-cap stock (roughly 8B market cap)!

And as more people learn about Vivek and his polling continues to improve (Note: this should not be difficult considering the trouble Ron DeSantis has been having, with steadily declining polling) I think more people, both retail investors and savvy institutional firms, will see ROIV as a way of “betting on Vivek”.

Obviously if Vivek managed to beat Trump for the GOP nominee that would be huge, since the amount of influence (not even as President, just as a major party nominee) is substantial. Think about how many of the rich and well connected (as well as foreign governments) tried to curry favor with Trump via his hotels and golf courses. For Vivek, a similar vehicle exists to peddle influence via ROIV.

Additionally, think about his influence as just VP or a cabinet member. Dick Cheney was the CEO of Halliburton before becoming VP (and its believed he used this position to help award Halliburton lucrative defense contracts). Rex Tillerson was CEO of ExxonMobil before becoming Secretary of State: when Trump’s transition team announced they would nominate him on December 9th, 2016 ExxonMobil (XOM) stock shot up roughly 4% in just a few days (and XOM has a ~400B market cap).

Especially for a company in the biotech space, where so much time is spent jumping through regulatory hoops, having someone high up in government vouching for you is huge.

I’m considering throwing a few thousand on this play, let me know what you all think.

Thank you for sharing. <@663241522451316736> you know his position on big pharma?

Regarding ROIV, i see the following catalysts to keep in mind:

  • Brepocitinib - (VALOR) Dermatomyositis (DM): Phase 3 topline data due in 2025
  • Batoclimab - Thyroid Eye Disease (TED) Phase 3 trial top-line data due in 1H 2025.
  • Namilumab - Sarcoidosis: Phase 2 data due in 2H 2024. Phase 2 trial initiated, noted June 28, 2022.
  • Brepocitinib - Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE): Phase 2b top-line data due in 4Q 2023.
  • RVT-2001 - Transfusion-Dependent Anemia in Patients with Lower-Risk MDS Phase 1/2: Phase 1/2 initial data due in 2H 2023

The result of two phase 3 studies will dictate the future of the company.

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Is that why it’s up this morning? Are you in with shares

Yes, that’s the reason. I have shares but not playing to sell. I see it more as Longer hold given multiple top line data read outs in 2024&2025