Making this so hopefully someone else steps in and follows up with it. Post ER run of about 30% putting SHOP back at near Pandemic level valuation but with much slower growth metrics means people are less likely to sustain this rally without any further business developments. Likely a week or two swing put play unless anyone disagrees or has counter points to add.
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Saw an interesting post from an ecommerce thought leader that I think would be of interest.
The biggest takeaway that he had from earnings that I agree with is that Shopify is doubling down on checkout and its Shopify ecosystem (Shop Pay being the largest).
This is incompatible with alot of Midmarket and Enterprise level companies utilizing other platforms or a custom build looking to migrate simply due to costs of Shop Pay (PYPL, Stripe and others can get much more competitive on price) and lack of feature sets with their preferred payment provider (which SHOP doesn’t do to promote Shop Pay)
This leaves them with trying to expand into new markets around the world and continuing to attract SMB and MidMarket brands if they are unsuccessful at the enterprise level.
I was looking through some of their recent earnings presentations last night and they have stopped showing how many merchants are on their Shopify Plus which was a metric they used to present on. (I am going to ask our competitive insights team if we have any reliable sources on that growth so I may have an update)
With poor economic data potentially impacting their Entrepreneur and SMB space I think this is a good opportunity for a Put position as the spike in price was caused by the sales of Deliverr and 6 River Systems not from ENT merchant growth where they have spent a lot of money and time on.
This played out how I thought it would. Hopefully some got in on it
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Don’t know if anyone is in this still (kudos if so, I’d cover some CB today and get a free trade). May be the exit day for the trade as you’re sitting on the day after ER. Solid point to bounce up but that would require spy I think to be not collapsing. Possibility for some gap fill as well tho. One PT from analysts is $45 (published after their ER). None the less great play
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Played a quick put off that 58 touch this morning, thanks for the play Navi
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Oh shoot just saw another analyst. Neutral to Underperform with PT raise from 42 to 51. Still below current price tho
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<@151954037544189952> puts look tempting here on this bounce. What do you think?
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Like I said in my update it’s definitely a weird point. This relief bounce makes sense and volume is a bit higher. But I’m still thinking it retraces a bit honestly. Sold my 62p 6/2’s earlier. Grabbed some cheap 59’s for this week up top. But that’s more a free trade, cherry on top thing. Mainly depends on SPY reactions to this debt ceiling stuff. This having some bullish divergence is concerning at first glance but taking in tandem with that new PT and downgrade makes the play still kinda feel okay. Probably would look at couple weeks out tomorrow depending on how it trends. Today seems like a relief and not an awesome day to enter in short.
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Thanks, I’ll just keep an eye on it for now. Don’t want to overtrade today anyhow.
Yeah it’s definitely a swing. The sale news is good. They had okay numbers. But all the analysts were like, “yeah good announcements… But it went past our PT in one day so neutral or underperform” lmao
yeah I would be looking to buy June expiries for sure
Junes are good or even longer. I mean the weekly/daily chart is one of the biggest Head and Shoulders I’ve ever seen
I don’t see it, am I missing something?
that’s paypal isn’t it?
Oh fuck
Here’s Shop not as much as I thought
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I almost see an inverse H&S formed by that most recent low but TA is also astrology so w/e
Yeah that’s the other reason I don’t care too much to make a huge point out of it. Plus that big Head and Shoulders was my company <:pepecry:899174773110763530>
Interesting that SHOP hasn’t caught any of this momentum from SPY
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