SHOP - Post Shopaholic Season Earnings (DD will never be finished)

Research & Analysis Earnings
23

I’m up decently on this position, so now I’m faced with the decision of cutting here, however, I’m in a cash account and can’t re-position if I do so. This highlights how crippling these restrictions can be on traders.

For me, I’m in this play for a bit more movement then this so I’m going to hold, however, I’m doing so with the fact that there are catalysts coming in the market that I’m going to need to land a certain way to clear the way for this to work.

  1. The FED speech needs to be not be incredibly bullish.There is a good chance of this. However, even if it is, that’s not the end all be all.
  2. CPI data tomorrow needs to not be a bullish surprise more importantly and I think there is a better chance of this.

So if those things fall in line, SPY should continue to drag SHOP down and with its earnings coming up, I think SHOP may get its own bearish momentum.

Again, will cut quick if this goes wrong, but I’m in a reasonably safe spot.

3 Likes
24

How’s the theta on it? Been looking at this since open and can’t really see how profitable it is to be holding into next day until you get into expirations out as far as May.

25

Theta is atrocious. You gotta buy an itm if you don’t wanna get burned and even then you need some solid movement to make it worth it

26

Yea i bought 1 ITM and am gonna ride it out until it seems not worth.

27

I ended up dropping mine here for $40 profit @Droburt due to the theta concern @Navi brought up. Probably going to trade this intraday.

2 Likes
28

Copy that, i was thinking the same considering the theta. More than likely going to let it go before close, thank you for the input !

1 Like
29

Don’t know if anyone saw this but BIGC acquired Quote Ninja this morning. This won’t immediately affect SHOP but does signal BIGC’s intention to address the large enterprise and B2B market. Will be interesting to see if SHOP announces anything similar in earnings.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bigcommerce-invests-becoming-world-most-130000427.html

1 Like
30

Since DD isn’t finished, just reporting my finding that SHOP owns 20M shares of AFRM
a3879a20-105c-4627-b97f-3fded5bcc73a.pdf (116.8 KB)

1 Like
31

Didn’t listen to their ER call. Might over the weekend. Moved about how I expected it with the same sentiment as PYPL did a scalp today. But watching for key levels over the next couple weeks.

1 Like
32

Howdy? Anyone playing SHOP for their May 2022 ER?

I don’t think there’s any immediate reversal for this downtrend/knife, until probably near the 300 mark…

image
image1531×1038 164 KB

1 Like
33

Looking to play this. Amazon sales went down. Affirm stock is down. Consumers focusing on service instead of goods. Shipment has gone down as well.

3 Likes
34

i would be surprised if shopify posts a positive earnings. possibly every aspect points to shopify doing bad. inflation, higher gas prices, and the rest which u already said.

1 Like
35

other things to keep in mind are the China covid shutdowns which are essentially affecting most drop shippers and shopify stores. The 10-to-1 stock split seems like a desperate measure by Shopify to try to prevent decline IMO. As well as the announcement of “Buy with prime” by amazon which comes after Shopify. Nothing is going good what so ever for Shopify

1 Like
36

SHOP down 13% premarket right now, may or may not keep going down once market opens

37

SHOP–this is consistent with the previous idea, they want it to settle back to pre2020-pumped price…

image
image1535×1045 205 KB

Someone knows something before the ER call.
Possible rally today after, probably later half of the day, once the data is better digested.

2 Likes
38

https://news.shopify.com/oh-ship-shopify-to-acquire-deliverr-for-21b-building-the-future-of-global-logistics-for-independent-brands#

1 Like
39

This SHOP DD seems nicely put together: Reddit - Dive into anything

Suggests a fair value for SHOP at $276 per share (current market price is $364)

1 Like