SOFI - Technical Swing Play

SOFI’s weekly chart looks very periodic, with about a 6 month period being shown between peeks. We are currently starting towards the upside of the next peek.

The play: 3-6 month low theta leaps. The 15c and 17/5c look juicy and could net you anywhere from 50-100% returns assuming you don’t burn too much off.

Trading it short term
Using this chart we could consider SOFI’s major trend to be up, so intraday volatility should trend upwards. Buy the days bottom by snagging some weekly’s and sell near the top.

My position
None at the moment, took some day trades in the past week and will acquire some LEAPS on Monday.

I’m really just curious to see how correct I am on this, so now going HAM on leaps since I’m 99% a day trader. If this period continues I will take a much more serious position at the top.

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I always love sofi at this 15 area, I love shorting puts at that 15 strike. This time, however, I’m not so sure due to macroeconomic conditions that are impacting growth companies. I do agree that it’s a great technical setup though at this solid 15 level of support, but if I were to enter something, I’d have tight stops.

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I’m with you there. There are a lot of these small/med growth companies trading at a sweet discount right now (relative to their performance throughout 2021), but I am hesitant to take positions because of the uncertain economic conditions relating to inflation, rate hikes, etc. that could keep these stocks at these lows.

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I definitely agree with your macro economic outlook on this one - I was kind of thinking the same thing myself. The one thing that makes me hesitate to think it’s too correlated is the shape of the chart. SOFI has had some clear 6 month cycles.

I won’t be going balls deep on this but it’s a worthwhile experiment and I’ll definitely be posting updates in this thread on the play as it pans out.

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+1 on CSPs at the $15 level. I got 12.5s when it was around 14.5.

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I’m considering a Ratio Call Calendar spread on SOFI at the 15 strike. -1 15c for a near term expiry, +2 for a further expiry. I ran the same type of spread on Ford this week, used 1/7 for the sell & 1/21 for the buys, but thinking on having a couple months between my expiry’s for SOFI so I could keep rolling the short call toward my buys, effectively writing a covered call against them without having a share position, and with more exposure on the long side so still good for a bullish move.

The 2:1 long:short ratio uncaps the upside back to unlimited, while there is some short protection giving you chances to roll or leg out at different times for profit. I am a bit hesitant to open too many positions this week as I’m wanting to see how omicron peaks and other macro conditions impact the market, but there is certainly a notable swing cycle repeating through the 2021 period. I’m going to keep an eye on it.

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Looking at near otm or atm calls for April, premiums seem to be getting close to their respective all time lows.

Could be another good entry soon if we’re still bullish on this swing?

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Yep I’m holding my position until April.

Again, im mostly interested in the correctness. SOFI can easily be day traded though, so if those pop green I’d recommend taking profits.

The reason I’m holding is because I can get more aggressive on the next cycle if I’m correct.

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I averaged down again this morning with Spy bringing everything down. I will def take profit in the meantime leading up to April, I’m also in April options. Feeling good at the moment.

Are you setting any stop losses or trailing stops with this play? (I’m feeling pretty confident at the moment but never know)

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I have alerts around $13.14 but I don’t have any trailing stops. Anything under 13 is probably danger zone to be honest.

I won’t tell you how to manage your position but just understand we are at support levels now more or less

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So taking greater macro economic conditions into play I’d definitely tread much more carefully, we broke down through 13 which isn’t a good look for the play overall.

I’ll continue to trade SOFI but I’m down on my swing position at the moment.

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I was going to create a thread and saw we have 2 threads on this ticker already.
With ER coming soon, this is a good bullish trend for SOFI…
image
I’ll be taking Leaps after ER, but for now I’ll take a Call option OTM.

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I have been swinging this regularly and hav been fortunate enough to have this be my most successful play in the last couple months, overall i like the stock i love the company and i think the future is bright for SOFI but from a aspect of profiting from this company in the short-Medium term i think there are several options, i like to tend to buy options usually 2 weeks from out when the price dips around or below $12 and riding it up to 13+ and cutting it there then riding it back down to sub 12.5 again i think short term this company will start to set higher lows and the window for higher highs will also open, in the short term leading up to earnings i expect a solid run up into earnings and may see a nice pop from earnings but i wouldn’t count on it happening without some nice dips. I work a regular job during the week but i will be coming into VC to call out what i believe are reasonable entries into this good luck.

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+1 to swinging SOFI, like PFE is has consistent strong movements in both directions definitely something that should be on everyone’s watchlist at least

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FYI, on Friday Bank of America initiated coverage of SoFi with a target price of $17.

Not sure if that will have any initial effect on the stock or not.

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Here is my take:

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I like that. I am giving her a $20 by end of April

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The ER (fourth quarter and full year of 2021 on Tuesday, March 1, 2022, could potential impact the swing.

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this swing cycle, if it does play out with a peak of around $20 in late April/May, what’s the explanation for the movement? is there a cyclical pattern in DeFi in the fundamentals in that people borrow more, or turn to alternative lenders, at certain times?

ER is going to be very interesting. also, the lifting of the moratorium on student-loan payments in May. that doesn’t seem like it’s something the government can stop in these hawkish inflationary times. letting people defer their bills is inflationary, no?

at the same time, politically it could be a disaster for the younger vote. not an expert at all by political means by mid-term elections are this fall. i think a surefire way to alienate the younger vote would be to hurt them financially and having to make them start paying. or hurt their credit when can’t pay it back.

the timing of any announcement on student loan repayments imo will effect SOFI’s price. an extension, and the stock may continue to languish. a decisive end come May, then many borrowers will look to refinance and SOFI seems like one of those companies they’ll be turning to. then SOFI should see a boost.

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Assuming Fed doesn’t tank everything , this is what I see as possible catalytic events for it.

  1. PayPal finding a bottom and going on uptrend. We need the pure fintech sector to do well and be on uptrend. Upstart is having earnings as well so look out for other companies’ ER to add momentum in the sector via sympathy.
  2. Earnings IV run
  3. Moratorium to be lifted from student loans
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