Great entry. Next level of support is 1.35.
Reminder. Earnings report after market today. I’m expecting nothing of substance. Small chance of good news.
Earnings is actually Feb 27. I could have sworn it said 23…
Put call ratio stands at 0.049. insanely low. Which means there’s big expectations of good news tomorrow.
I think what most people are looking for in this season for SLDP (because their mass produced battery is years and years away) is for the new CEO to establish himself as a credible leader. The previous CEO, Doug Campbell, left suddenly last summer. There was a lot of speculation and FUD over it, but it amounted to nothing more than Doug burning out.
SLDP has been pretty hush hush on actual performance metrics. Investor relations state that this is because they want to avoid a lawsuit similar to the one quantumscape has. Many people are speculating it’s because there’s no actual performance to talk about. Anything that looks close to actual performance metrics that are slightly below expectations or higher will likely send the stock higher. Any power density better than Li-ion would be considered good. However, I’m not expecting them to reveal any numbers. Like I said, a big fat nothing-burger.
I picked up 2 $2 mar calls for $5 each. Pretty cheap. If the price spikes Wednesday looking at a pretty profit.
Expect speculation around the earnings report today. If you don’t want to risk holding through earnings, you’re probably going to be profitable at 1.55 or below as I advised. As I’ve said many times I’m holding this stock long-term. Earnings is good today and there’s a spike above what I think the fair value is. I will sell and then look for a favorable reentry. If the news is bad I will just continue to hold.
If you’re not prepared to hold this long-term, as I am consider your best options for an exit. That could be a mixture of taking profit today and holding the rest through earnings. Decide based on your risk appetite.
As I said, “speculation.” Take some profits now if you aren’t holding long.
Put call ratio at .027, even lower than yesterday. This thing has some big expectations…
P/C now at 0.012… wtf
Earnings call highlights
• “capability” to make 1.1 metric tons of electrolyte
• improved performance on A1 sample cells. they are on track to meet their “goals.” But didn’t say what the goals were.
• Safety performance has been varied as cell size increases. Thermal runaway problem on larger cells. Contaminated input materials and small manufacturing defects.
• 270 employees
• implemented SAP
• mentioned the share buyback program. bragged about liquid assets. They really should not buy back shares. If they did, I would sell.
Goals for 2024
- expand electrolyte capabilities and market
-increase SP2 to 2.5 MT per year (currently 1.1 MT/month)
-expand sampling program. get samples to potential customers. battery manufacturers and OEMs. - advance cell designs
-do not anticipate A2/3 designs will require major changes to cell structure or electrolyte - execute on partner commitments
-BMW, Ford, and SK On
-BMW - delivered 200 A1 sample cells. Working with them to develop A2.
-SK On - nothing of consequence was said
-Ford - shipped electrolyte to Ford. received positive initial feedback. Nothing else of substance was said - strengthen presence in korea
-Double the number of publicity events they attend
Financial results and outlook
• net loss of 0.37 per share. 90M spend. 17M revenue.
• total liquidity ~415M. 381M in investments in A-rated securities.
• Believes they have cash runway into the late 2020s
2024 outlook
• 2024 revenue in range of $20M-$25M
• gov’t contract revenue expected to be lower
• Expect $100M-120M cash investment. Net loss of ~95M-100M over the course of the year.
only a handful of the 1000 cells manufacturered last year had thermal runaway problems. not many, but way too high for mass production. you need less than 1 out of 100,000 to not have thermal issues at scale.
BMW presented SLDP with requirements for A2 samples. Apparently they were higher than SLDP was expecting. They expect to have a design late 2024 for initial production.
As expected, a big nothing-burger. Only interesting things said here was that SLDP is starting to market their electrolyte to EV and battery OEMs to explore additional sources of revenue. Read it however you want. I expect shares to trade sideways.
Just sold half my stake at 1.71. looking to pick it back up later today.
P/C ratio at 0.004. a lot of new 1.5 stike MAR calls. Looks like there’s a pretty solid floor at 1.5 on this stock now. I have buy orders around 1.58-1.63 and sell orders in the upper 1.70s.
Cup and handle
Unfortunately the pattern didn’t resolve. I did, however, pick back up my stake 