Also wanted to add this in
Smart money flow compared to DOW. A ton of selling on that green day. Sign that big money is gonna pull the rug again?
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TLDR: Looking very bullish, but let’s see if earnings coming up will support this move.
On the SPX hourly, we are bouncing off the 8 EMA and looking like we backtested the downtrend line and looking to head higher. We did form a bearish divergence on the RSI and MACD with the previous peaks, but it does seem like we’re out to form another bearish divergence and head to new highs or retest the highs. We might be breaking out of the downtrend, but I want to see the next lower high stay above the downtrend line and stay strong.
On the daily, we had another close above the downtrend line, this time a solid close above. This is a bullish sign, but with less volume and bearish divergence on the RSI and the histogram on the MACD is forming a bearish divergence too. The MACD is also not turning up with the same speed and strength that I would want to see with this strong move up. Interesting to see, but we’re still above 0 and we are looking for more closes above the downtrend line.
Something concerning is that the VIX isn’t moving down much at all even with these bullish movements. Granted, the VIX is becoming more and more useless to pair with SPX because of all the 0 DTE options, but still interesting to see the VIX holding at these levels.
Another worrying sign is that the junk bonds formed a top wick and closed red. Could this be a sign that this rally up is a bull trap? We’ll see, but the junk bonds have formed a higher high either way so this could just be an outlier.
Overall, NASDAQ and DOW are looking strong and forming some solid green candles. Things are starting to get overextended to the upside, but it does look like we are looking very bullish and strong at least on the indices. We’ll see if the little warning signs are showing a bull trap or not. But we also have to see if the news will support this move too. MSFT earnings are tomorrow AH, that could shit the markets. We also have TSLA, PCE inflation, GDP and fed rate hike next week. Let’s see if these all support the move up or if it’s buy the rumor, sell the news. I’m still bearish, but we’ll see what the market does.
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TLDR: Not much has changed, MSFT earnings seemed mixed, but we’ll see how the market sees it tomorrow, which should determine the trend.
Pretty quick TA here, but it does seem like we’re consolidating here. Maybe another couple range days until TLSA earnings? MSFT earnings weren’t horrendous so we’ll see if we get a significant sell off based on that. But we are holding up above the downtrend line, which is a good sign.
We had another day of very low volume, which makes me think that we are running out of steam. Maybe another couple days of low volume range before a breakout to either direction? Honestly, I don’t really know what will happen in the upcoming days, but I am expecting a breakdown.
Overall, let’s just see what the market wants to do with MSFT earnings, but I think that we won’t move too much until TSLA finishes it’s earnings too. I am looking for a breakdown based on how over extended we are and how much dumb money is pouring in without smart money joining, but I’ll play whatever direction we want to go.
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TLDR: Watch out for how market decides to react to TSLA earnings and see if market wants to reverse MSFT bounce. Also GDP and Job data coming tomorrow morning. Also PCE Friday, which can cause a selloff.
SPX on the hourly showed a strong gap fill and back to the magnet level. Something interesting to note is that the MACD crossed over and we’re still in the red on the histogram. RSI is also showing a bearish divergence looking at the previous time we were at these levels. Interesting to see that the indicators are not showing a strong momentum on this rally.
I think that there’s a good chance that tomorrow might be another green day based on TA as we had a big gap fill with rising volume. This shows that bulls are still here and we’ll see if data comes in positive enough for markets to keep moving up. But it does look like we are stuck in a range and just consolidating.
Another reason why I think that there’s a good chance that we have another green day tomorrow is because the VIX is tanking lower now. Possibly showing more bullish momentum.
Overall, it seems like bulls are strong here and doesn’t want to disappear. We’re still not able to really able to break upwards with the 4020 wall and momentum does seem like it’s weakening. Data could produce a sell off though, so watch out. I am still bearish due to smart money still doing nothing or pulling out, but we’ll see how much higher we can climb up on SPX.
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TLDR: I think we dick around until Fed on Wednesday, but there’s also a chance that we start to sell off with the PCE data. Who knows, but it’s still bull trend until shit changes.
On the hourly chart for SPX, we formed a bearish divergence on the RSI. Last time, this did cause a 3% sell off so we’ll see if we do see another sell off which can form another higher low or start the reversal.
Now on the daily, we formed 2 bearish hanging man candle sticks in a row. All this means is that there is a long bottom wick with a small candle body. If this pattern (basically the same as a hammer) appears during an uptrend, it shows that bears are trying to take control and was able to intraday. Shows that bulls aren’t in full control and means caution. We are seeing bears here, but we’ll see if they are able to actually take control. On SPY, we had a lower volume day, but it’s not so low to cause too much concern imo.
Another reason why I’m kinda bearish is because the junk bonds are making a lower high while SPX is making a higher high. We’ll see if this means anything in the future.
Overall, I am still bearish and waiting for a downtrend to start and there are signs, BUT bulls are still in control and there’s no point trying to force downside. Until shit changes and we see trend changes on the daily close, I will stay on the bull side and expect more upside, even though things are looking weaker. Short TA because it’s basically the same thing over and over again. Good luck all.
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TLDR: I personally think that we’ll range into FOMC Wednesday and then sell off, but we’ll see.
So on the hourly, we did get a pretty big sell off EOD, but I wouldn’t think that it’s the start of a major reversal just yet. We rallied hard this week and I would assume profit taking going on. Also I would expect some kind of reversal to happen after this leg up. Additionally, I think that there are some bears entering more short positions here. Overall, it does seem like we’re testing the uptrend line on SPX and see if we can stay above to be bullish. Everything does seem to be bullish on SPX though. RSI is looking like it’s barely a bearish divergence, that I wouldn’t really expect it to be anything more than a slight pullback to happen. MACD is firmly above the 0 line, and holding up strong. 8/21 EMA are strong too. Hourly is looking strong overall and I would just see this sell off as it trying to retest the uptrend line and stay above.
On the daily, we see some interesting patterns. Volume on SPX shows the same bullish volume, but on SPY, we have declining volume. Also, we had a bearish hanging man along with a top wick candlestick back to back. I would say that this would signal a top or a reversal coming, but the bullish momentum is too strong right now for me to say that. I think that all this shows is that bears are still here and either trying to take control right now or entering short positions. Either way, I think all dips will be bought right now until news switches the bullish tone, which is why I think that we’ll range into FOMC. I expect derisking into the fed, but also bulls to keep buying those dips because the narrative is that markets are front running the fed pivot.
We finally had a weekly bullish close above the downtrend line, but the MACD is still below the 0 line, RSI is still at the levels where previous tops have formed and volume hasn’t really increased too much. I wanted to see MACD, RSI and volume all turn up strongly at this break above, but right now it just seems like a bull trap and there’s not much momentum. But who knows, maybe this is how retards like me don’t enter in on this new bull run. There’s a good chance that we start to rally towards 4200-4300 now, but we’ll see what happens. Weekly is starting to show a new trend forming.
VIX is at hella low levels now. It just formed a bullish divergence on the MACD and RSI with the previous low, but we’ll see if that just turns into another small pop up heading into FOMC. Either VIX just continues to die and stays “oversold” or we do see the start of the reversal, but we’ll find out after this week of massive news.
Another worrying sign that I’m seeing is the junk bonds. It’s not making higher highs like SPY. Last times that it formed these divergences, it led to a sell off and a reversal. We’ll see if this plays out again, but just something to watch. Yields are just dicking around, which I expect to be the case until FOMC, so maybe that’s why bonds aren’t doing shit either.
Now here are some conflicting smart money flows. On the DOW, smart money finally starting to buy again. Interesting to see, even though the smart money flow is forming a bearish divergence. But something to watch as smart money may start to pour in here and help push us up a fuck ton more.
But on SPX, smart money is selling more and dumb money is piling in even more. Interesting to see, but it’s not good seeing that this rally isn’t being supported by smart money. I’m beginning to feel like a major rug pull is coming soon because these smart money flows aren’t looking too good. Also DOW isn’t making higher highs even though it led the rally, which is worrying.
Overall, I am still on the bear side, but the bullish momentum right now is too strong so I’ll play calls until shit changes. This week has insane amount of news, especially Wednesday. Employment numbers, PMI, FOMC and then more employment numbers Friday. Then there are Amazon and Apple earnings Thursday close. This week should be the start of the rug pull or the insane rally to 4300+. Big week ahead so stay safe yall.
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TLDR: The selloff might have started here, but I’m still looking for a range so I’m not gonna enter puts here until after I see the Fed confirm the bearish news because even if we do sell off more tomorrow, the Fed could reverse all that. And even if we do sell off more, there’s still a ton more downside left to take puts on.
So SPX on the hourly is approaching the uptrend line. I expect some kind of bounce soon because again, bullish momentum is still here, MACD is approaching the 0 line and the RSI is barely below the 50 level. The 8/21 EMA did cross, but doesn’t really matter if we’re just gonna go sideways. Something to note also is that we haven’t formed a lower low yet, so it’s not time to be screaming bear season and all. We’re still at a higher low.
On the daily chart, MACD and RSI are still very bullish. It’d be foolish to just look at the red bar and go all bearish right now. We had a very very small increase in volume today on SPY, showing that there is some momentum and confirmation, but it’s not enough for me to say that bears are in control. Combined with that, the sell off today wasn’t a hard strong selloff, more of a slow bleed. I still think that there’s a good chance we get a green day tomorrow given that we’re at the 9 EMA and have rode it up this entire run. Also I expect more bearish accumulation here so I don’t expect markets to shit the bed right now.
The VIX looks like it’s done with its bullish divergence and looking to head up higher. Or it could just be showing that volatility is coming in due to FOMC. Who knows, but something to watch if this start to spike up like crazy.
Overall, I am expecting us to not go under 400 until FOMC, but anything can happen so who knows. I am expecting the Fed to come off hawkish, but I’ll take my puts after its confirmed before I get blown out again. Tomorrow should be an interesting day so good luck and don’t blow your load before the biggest news this week because that should set the trend for the rest of the week and the next.
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T;dr: Meh.
The markets seem to have swapped out the mother-of-all-trendlines (MOAT) for the SPX 4100 level, and is bouncing underneath it, waiting for clearance from the Fed to zoom through.
The market is going into the FOMC rather sanguine this time around - vol of SPX options going into tomorrow is lower than the previous three FOMCs.
25bps has been locked in for a while; today, bonds priced in higher likelihood of second rate cut before the end of the year. And VIX itself has been quite low lately.
Given data points we have so far, it is difficult to see how Fed can be hawkish. I feel like the most likely stance is, “we’ll likely do another hike in March, but really depends on the data after that.” The hawkish version would be to suggest that additional rate hikes are definitely on the table, confirming a ceiling higher than 5%. Not sure what data he would present for that though, barring which markets will likely not believe him anyway.
If we do go higher, vol is not as much as it was before though, so the supported vanna effects will likely be weaker than before.
Overall, not sure FOMC tomorrow will be as important a thing as CPI, PCE and PMI over the next month or two. But that’s for a different thread.
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TLDR: FOMC tomorrow, we’ll see what happens.
On the hourly, we’re back to the top end of the rising wedge. We’ll see if we break out again. Really not much to say other than RSI, MACD and EMAs are turning over. But we’ll see what news does.
On the daily, volume increased on SPY, showing that bulls are still in control. This made sense given the dip yesterday and we’ll see if we can get a continued breakout to the upside if news comes in as given or dovish tomorrow. Things aren’t that overextended yet on the daily so we do have room to run still. But news has to support it. Not much to say other than we did get the 8 EMA bounce today.
VIX turned down again, but the MACD is still turning upwards. Interesting to see. We’ll see if VIX will do something useful.
Overall, the bounce came as I expected and I’m expecting the Fed to be more hawkish this meeting to cause a selloff because the markets are frontrunning Fed announcing a pivot and all. The Fed has continued to say that they don’t want the markets to rally and they would rather overtighten than undertighten and risk having inflation run insane. But, I’m just a retard so who knows. We’ll just have to wait and see what the Fed does. If the Fed does come in as expected or bullish, I don’t expect a huge run up because most of that is priced in and the reason why we’re rallying anyways. But if the Fed comes in hawkish, that is not priced in so we’ll see either a hella strong red day or we’ll see the markets try to just keep buying and fight the Fed. Good luck all.
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TLDR: CCIV said 450 calls so bear market is over and we’re going to rally to the moon
On the hourly, we did get a pretty hefty selloff near EOD creating a huge top wick. I wouldn’t put too much weight on it though because it seems like markets aren’t fazed by what the Fed said and bullish momentum is still strong here, esp with Meta beating earnings. Something to note is that the MACD is forming a pretty big bearish divergence. Interesting to note, but that’s really the only bearish thing on this chart.
On SPY, the volume has been increasing the previous couple days, showing a confirmation on the uptrend. Right now, we don’t have a bearish divergence on the RSI with the December high, but we do with the MACD. Interesting to note. But it does seem like bulls have all the momentum here and looking to rally, esp breaking past the big resistances and probably more short squeezes coming.
VIX moved down hard too, the MACD turned down, although it’s still having a bigger bullish divergence. Seems like we’re going to rally more.
Some other things to note is that the 10 year yields rolled over. I wanted to see this move upwards with the other yields if we were going to have a post-Fed sell off, but it seems like markets aren’t really showing fake out signs right now.
The dollar also moved down, showing more bullish strength in the markets.
Overall, I thought that the Fed would cause a selloff, but it seems like markets shrugged off all the hawkish statements and have priced all those in. The post-Fed selloff also doesn’t seem to be happening because the yields are also dropping. But maybe I’m wrong and we start to sell off hard tomorrow. In my opinion though, given how the markets reacted to the Fed and META having “good earnings” and the bullish momentum here, we should continue to rally tomorrow, but we’ll see what happens Friday because there are some big news and AAPL, AMZN and GOOG earnings Thursday close. Good luck all, and I think it’s buy all dips tomorrow.
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