@Yongsooyuk6 and @juangomez053 this is really awesome stuff! 
The detailed data points and convincing arguments you present make for a very well-thought out case for why we might indeed be heading for a “breather” in the markets shortly.
4 Likes
TLDR: I don’t think the bear market rally is over, there’s a strong chance that we fill the gap before we resume, but I’m not betting full on bearish.
SPY on the 1 hour is just flat. RSI is holding above the mid line which is still bullish. We’re also riding along the 21 EMA for now and not breaking lower. SPY does look weak right now though, and if we do break below the 21 EMA, I do expect a gap fill to 393. Other than that, not much to say other than consolidation.
SPY formed basically a perfect doji today and where tomorrow’s direction goes will most likely show the direction we’ll see for a bit. Another thing to note is that we sold off into close, not showing much enthusiasm and bullish sentiment from the crowd. Another thing to note is that we again rejected off the 8 EMA on the daily and today’s volume was abysmal. It was lower than yesterday’s and this can be seen as a fake bullish day or a weak bearish day. But overall, nothing much much to say other than we’ll soon see if we’ll get a rally up or go and gap fill. Maximum pain was $400 today to make the most money and we reached that price perfectly.
VIX continued to fall lower today, even though today was very choppy. This is bullish as we broke below the uptrend line, but I’m not particularly very bullish because of the price action on SPY and other indices. I want to see VIX continue to trend lower or have the indices start pumping if I’m to be convinced of a rally soon.
The 10 year yields “came down” today, even though overall it was up 0.07%. It looks like it’s setting up a bear flag on the daily and if this plays out, the 10 year yield should come down and give technology more bullish momentum.
The PCC showed that more calls entered/ more puts exited the market. This is bullish, esp when it’s not near extremes. We’ll see if price action can validate this move and start to move up.
Another thing to note is that DXY had a second red day in a row. This is bullish for the markets as this shows that people are starting to be less risk off and possibly putting cash into equities. I’m not super bearish or convinced of this move until it breaks the 8 EMA/ 103 support.
Overall, today was a very choppy day and showed very little in terms of what markets want to do. I know fed talks are tomorrow and I expect volatility during those times too. I’m actually not too bearish on those talks. I think that the feds will continue to regain credibility (they won’t) and repeat the same shit they’ve been saying for the last couple weeks. This confirmation might make the markets push up, but who knows what the market will do. I’m still bullish and think we end the week green though.
2 Likes
TLDR: I’m expecting a pullback soon on SPY. Either we reject off here tomorrow to retest the 8 EMA at around 402 or we break above to get to the 21 EMA at around 413 and retest the 8 EMA.
Also enjoy my cleaned up charts. I removed basically all my supports/resistances and my next logs will be shorter since I’ll stop mentioning DXY and stuff since it’s basically gonna be the same shit
Looking at the hourly on SPY, we can see that we tested the 21 EMA and now riding up above the 8 EMA. The RSI is close to being overextended and we can see a pullback soon based on that since this is still a fearful and bearish market so I don’t expect SPY to stay at overbought for a bit. Also looking at the RSI, it’s barely making new highs even though SPY is climbing higher. Not a bearish divergence, but showing that momentum is slowing down. When you pull up MACD, it’s showing very weak momentum. although it’s still showing an upwards movement. Overall, SPY on 1 hour looks strong, although it looks like the momentum upwards is slowly weakening.
Looking at the daily, we stopped just at the downtrend line in yellow. Either we reject off here and test the 8 EMA or we break above and test the 21 EMA. My bet is that we get rejected at one of these areas. The 21 EMA is at 413.5ish so that would be a 1% move upwards. There is larger volume than yesterday, which is good to see, possibly showing more conviction in a bull scenario. The RSI has crossed above the MA which is also bullish. The low volume green days aren’t bad, as these rallies up are usually on a lot less volume than red days, but what’s not good to see is that we haven’t seen a huge volume green reversal day. 5/12 did have good volume, but it still wasn’t bigger volume than any of the previous red days. That makes me believe that we haven’t had a full bottom yet. I expect a pullback and at minimum I see us testing the 8 EMA (403) and at the worst, I see us testing the turquoise uptrend line which is from the start of the 2008 bull run which would be 396-397.
Some reasons why I believe that we’ll see a pullback soon is how overextended the VIX is. On the hourly, it’s very “oversold.” I know you don’t sell VIX, but idk how else to describe it. I do expect a bounce soon, although it doesn’t mean that it has to happen right now as VIX was oversold the entire March rally without a bounce.
VIX on the daily is near the area where we start to see a bounce. This 25 area often causes volatility to pop back up. We’re already seeing a slight bounce happen and this could carry on into tomorrow. If we do get a VIX bounce, I expect at most to the green uptrend line which would be at around 30.5, although I think we’ll just top at 29ish.
Another reason why I’m expecting a pullback is because the bonds are going down. This usually indicates a pullback in the stocks soon, as this pattern happened during the Feb rally. It doesn’t mean that it’ll happen right away, but it does show that there is possibly a pullback soon on the markets and to be careful.
The 10 year yield is soaring again and if this doesn’t come back down, it’s gonna start to put more pressure on tech again and lead to bearish conditions. I want to see this bear flag play out and have the 10 year start to roll over. As long as it doesn’t hold over 3%, I think we should be fine.
Finally, the DXY has broken below a the support and is looking bearish. This is good for the markets as more cash can enter stocks.
Overall, I expect a pullback based on weakening momentum on SPY and overextension on VIX while near bounce zones. Other indicators such as the TLT show bearishness and PCC is also showing that puts are re-entering. I do think that we will see a rally and this pullback is just part of the process where we form higher highs and higher lows. There will be better call buying opportunities in the future, so if you missed out on calls at the bottom, I would just scalp or wait until we see a pullback to enter back into calls. My target price for this bear market rally is 430. I might be wrong on the pullback as March went without a pullback, but I think this is a different situation than March and we’ll see a pullback.
3 Likes
Max Pain levels are interesting in that 05/18 is lower than current stock prices and 05/20 is much higher.
Max Pain for 05/18
SPY: 402
QQQ: 300
Max Pain for 05/20
SPX: 4300
SPY: 423
QQQ: 322
TSLA: 850
AAPL: 157.50
1 Like
TLDR: I’m still expecting us to rebound. I don’t think that we’re going to go into a recession just yet and I’ll make a bigger DD on the weekend on why. Overall, I’m expecting a dip to 388 before a bounce, if the futes for some reason rally and we open above 393, I’m going to expect that we are bouncing from there.
Looking at the spy hourly chart, we are very oversold on the RSI and away from the moving average. Also riding down the 8 EMA. 1 hour shows bearishness, not much to be said.
Now why did I circle these RSI points from the past 2 pictures? It’s because I want to show 1) a similar situation as today and 2) how RSI has been acting when it’s far from the MA. During this downtrend, when the RSI is far removed from the MA on the downside, we do not get a rally up to return to the average. We either consolidate or continue downwards with lower momentum and allows the MA to catch up to the RSI. On the first picture, you can see consolidation while the RSI and the MA came together. On the second picture, it’s the happy bear szn when SPY went from 450 to like 100 in 2 days. Today’s was similar to the first red day on 450. RSI was oversold, but we continued to move lower the next day before bottoming. I believe that a similar thing will happen tomorrow. Sentiment is way too bearish and I don’t see us bouncing straight from open unless we open higher than 393 for whatever reason. I don’t personally think that we’ll have another $10+ red day, but we’ll see I guess.
On the SPY daily, we broke down the uptrend line that has been there since 2008. This is very bearish, although as long as we don’t break it on the weekly, we should be fine. On the daily, we can see that this was high volume selling so there is conviction, although it was slow and steady selling, which makes me think this is just a buyer strike and not a panic sell into capitulation. Another thing to note is the bullish divergence on the RSI. What I’m looking for is a higher low to form either here after a gap fill or for us to track a little lower to establish the higher low. I’m personally leaning towards a higher low a bit lower from here. Looking at MY (so don’t bitch at me if yours is different) major supports, the next one is 388. Because the one above broke, I don’t see a reason to bounce here.
Another reason why I’m expecting a bounce soon is because a bullish divergence formed all day. This doesn’t mean a bounce will come though, because the downtrend from 450 to your asscrack also had a bullish divergence form on the first day before drilling to your saggy ballsacks the next day. Just something I’m watching.
Looking at VIX, it’s basically at the uptrend line and it could start to roll over here. Or it could test the blue uptrend line. Another thing to note is that the RSI is touching the MA right now. It could get rejected and bounce below. VIX is also looking like a h&s if we can get it to roll over soon. Just something to watch and keep note.
Just a couple things is that the DXY did go up, but did not break the 8 EMA or the resistance at 103.8 or whatever the shit, which is a good sign for now. The yields were down today, showing that the bear flag might play out, giving stocks the room to run. Another thing to note is that the bonds were up today, most likely because the yields were down. Even if, it’s a promising sign that bonds are going up, possibly signaling that this move is “fake” just like how the previous move up was “fake.” PCC showed a ton of puts entering the market, but not at a level where I’m comfortable calling for a bottom. It’s still in the high range, but not at the extreme ranges.
My belief is that we’ll form a candle like this tomorrow. I believe is that we go slightly lower due to sentiment and retail selling at open before finding a bottom and marking a lower high. Keep in note that this is mostly technical reasons. Looking at the fear being produced such as CEOs coming out and saying “boo hoo I’m going cash” and banks being like “it’s gay bear season because recession,” I wouldn’t doubt another big red day. My belief is a lower high, but a double bottom forming isn’t out of the question by testing the yellow trendline on my SPY daily chart. If we break that though, yeah tickle my bootyhole, twist my balls into a pretzel and cum in my mouth cause it’s full on gay bear season with basically no chance at seeing a bull rally for years.
2 Likes
Also there is 0 chance that we see 380. That is literally impossible based on the market mechanics. If you disagree, you’re gay and retarded.
4 Likes
Yoong is so eloquent with his words. Real talk though, always appreciate your insights. Don’t always agree but always see solid fundamentals from you
2 Likes
Really learning a lot of TA from this thread as I follow along with your charts. If you would be so kind, sir, to accept some observations for $SPY? I’m a complete novice compared to your stuff here but just thought of possible methodology?
-
BTC. I don’t know shit about fuck when it comes to crypto but I think there’s a lot of money invested here. Also, it’s a pretty risky asset. Also, it trades 24/7. Then when it’s up over 2% in PM, that seems to indicate a risk-on sentiment in something that’s traded the world over. Likewise, if it’s down 2% in PM, you’re looking at skittishness. Anything under that seems like it just flip-flops or trades along with SPY’s momentum. For example, today, after being up 4%, BTC never dropped below 2%. Even with $AAPL shitting the bed, $SPY maintained it’s crabby pattern. It’s very rare for BTC and SPY to diverge too much.
-
VIX ranges. I really like your VIX analysis but I find it’s a lot more useful when put into context of ranges like The_Ni has pointed out. 30-35 and it seems you’re looking at a lot of fear and uncertainty.
-
Treasuries and Bonds. Usually, the 10-Yr doesn’t move more than 5% in a day so even 0.5% changes can be big. I’ve found that now it seems to move opposite of SPY in that it’s decoupled a bit from big tech and if the yield drops most likely SPY is dropping to. Also, corporate bonds like $LQD move in small increments but inversely with $SPY.
These three things, along with SPY gapping up/down, pretty much lay the foundation for volatility and then any NEWS can light a match. Like yesterday before open, BTC shit the bed, VIX was up arond 3-4%, and yields were moving down. Then TGT and nothingburger eco data just turned a reddish looking day into a bloodbath.
Then today, you had mixed signals and no real accelerants in NEWS or DATA and ended up with a sideways day? Also, what Swole, JB, and other do by looking at the heavies like AAPL and MSFT to guide them through their scalps seems really on point.
Would love to hear your anal thoughts on this 
2 Likes
TLDR: I expect SPY to finish tomorrow at least at 400. This is my pure degeneracy calling the bottom reversal type shit. If SPY doesn’t reverse to 400 at least by Monday, I will read whatever you degenerate fucks want on VC or whatever the shit yall want.
These are unprecedented times so anything can happen. Hell we can just have a market crash tomorrow and form a new precedent. That’s not my belief and I think we’re going to follow precedent and not have a recession before making a new ATH, but that DD is for the weekend when I see how my thesis plays out.
I am expecting either a rally starting from open or a little dip before a rally. Overall, I expect a big green day tomorrow.
This is going to be long so pucker your assholes and prepare for a autistic rant of why I think that we’re going to see the start of a bottom bear market rally to 430-440. I’ll also make a bigger DD this weekend of why I think SPY will first make a new ATH before a crash of 50-70%.
Looking at the options flow, we can see that puts were actually getting closed and calls weren’t. This is different from previous days where puts would be continuously be bought into close. Also we didn’t have a complete collapse going into close, we stabilized.
Looking at the open interest, there are 100k at 380, 390 and then 85k at 400 and then 345. I highly doubt that the MM’s would want to pay all those puts. I’m going to expect markets to rally up into 400ish to make all those puts expire worthless. I’m not looking at the max pain shit at 414 because I’m sure that it’ll decrease more at tomorrow open, plus as long as SPY closes above 400, MM make a ton of money.
Now looking at PCC, it’s back elevated at levels where I expect markets to bottom. Even though it’s not at the extremes like before, I think that’s also a bullish thing. SPY is very weak but still there’s not the same amount of puts being entered into the markets.
Looking at sentiment, it’s not really getting worse. This doesn’t seem like a capitulation sentiment to me. I think fear has bottomed and people are getting ready for a rally, although most are not looking for SPY ATH.
Now let’s look at how the bigger named stocks did. Most were actually green today even though it was a shitty day. Weird how they’re not shitting the bed like the last couple days. I don’t remember exactly, but I remember a similar thing happening where the big names were green while SPY was shitty and then we had a rally. The worst one was Apple at -2%, but it gap filled and then bounced. Because Apple finally reached it’s gap fills, I’m going to expect a bounce from here.
I want to bring into attention the small cap stocks. IWM was the only index that was really green today. This is something to notice because usually if the markets are dogshit, these small cap stocks get hit harder. But it’s showing some strength. Nasdaq was barely green, but from where it opened, it was actually a couple cents lower so I don’t count it. Anyways, IWM showing some signs that a bottom is in.
The dollar is getting hammered. More and more people are starting to come out of cash it seems like. This is great for the markets as this means that people might be re-entering assets instead of selling. DXY also got rejected at support and broke through the 8 and 21 EMA. Looks like a roll over.
Bonds were up overall, although it shat itself during the day, possibly because the 10 year was going up throughout the day. Overall though, it’s a good sign that bonds are going up even though stocks are going down. Possible sign of a reversal.
The 10 year yields look like it finally broke out of its bear flag and looking to roll over. If this starts to fully play out, it gives technology a lot more breathing room to run higher. It did rally intraday, so it could be a false breakout, but something to watch and keep in mind if the 10 year rolls over.
Now looking at 2 market breaths. First one I’ll be looking at is the stocks within SPY which are above the 50 MA. We are at the zone where we see the markets bottom. It’s not a perfect indicator, but it is reliable in terms of risk/reward ratio. Of course this shows that we can go lower, but I don’t think so right now because of the other major breath indicator.
The Nasdaq stocks above the 200 MA is an amazing indicator when marking the bottoms. We are near the 12% range, same ranges as the Covid crash and the 2018 shit. Even looking at when the indicator is at 20%, we can see that we see bottom. This low of a reading typically marks THE BOTTOM. This indicator has been basically perfect at calling bottoms so that’s why I don’t think we’re going to go much lower, if at all and start to rally.
Now SPY 1 hour looks like it’s consolidating. Also it looks like it’s forming a higher low, potentially looking to form a higher high and form a new trend. We did break below the 8 EMA again though, which is worrying, but the RSI already crossed over the MA and holding above strong. This is bullish and I lowkey expect us to rally back above the EMAs tomorrow.
On the SPY daily, we had a green day after gapping down. We closed the gap and never made new lows of the day. The volume is low compared to the ones we’re used to, but it’s still not horrible. It’s around the same as the volumes we saw from the 460 move down. This could also mark a sloppy double bottom. The rSI is forming a divergence and we are holding a lot better given the market situations. The day after we had a $10 drop, we usually saw hella moves down the next day before a good rally up. Today, we didn’t have a huge drop. This is different from the other days and shows that the markets aren’t as convinced in the drops as before. The MACD on the daily is also showing a divergence and looking to reverse soon. I’m going to be watching for the uptrend line break at around 405 for us to really see a rally above. If I’m wrong and we get rejected again, then I guess it’s time to give up the patriotic fight.
The VIX is the main reason why I’m calling for a rally. For such a volatile day and a red day followed by the 4% drop, the VIX just died. It closed under the trend lines and looking to get crushed. VIX usually peaks before the market bottoms and I think that we have a VIX peak and now lower highs leading into the market bottom with the final VIX hurrah. It’s also forming a h&s and looking to break lower. Another reason why I’m expecting a huge rally is because the VIX peaked and then died all day. It also got crushed on a red day and esp on a day where we made a higher low on SPY. These reasons lead me to believe that we’re going to rally.
Another reason is because SPY rallied hard and then had a slow controlled move down. It wasn’t a flash crash into a new low. Today, we did go lower, but today was mostly a consolidation day in an uptrend channel until the close. This makes me believe that big money is accumulating in this zone and looking to push the markets up soon.
I expect a huge short squeeze starting tomorrow due to the amount of puts open and MMs not wanting to pay them out. Looking at how SPY made a lower high, VIX crushed, big stocks holding up and other signals, I think that we’re going to rally hard. I do think that we’re going to rally to 430-440 to test the bigger downtrend line before getting rejected.
Of course there’s always the chance that I’m wrong and we just completely shit the bed to 370, but I am willing to risk that we are not.
Before you make fun of me for such a small position, remember that my port got fucking destroyed by stop losses so I’m a small ass port now.
4 Likes
One thing that is missing from your assessment is consideration that big money is buying calls/puts in June and July. You’re focusing only on this week and not what will print for future dates options. If your thesis is built on the foundation of OI, I would consider layering in those June and July monthly’s on spy and qqq, because there is a shit ton of them.
As always, excellent analysis my dude
4 Likes
TLDR: We’re either gonna reject immediately and start to go lower or go on to test the downtrend line which is 402. I’m not gonna bet on direction because I don’t know how much of the volume was shorts covering and how much was big money actually buying.
Shout out to Whiplash for getting that 380 prediction. Yeah so my squeeze thesis happened EOD instead of starting at open like I expected. I’m going to take a break from trading, but my tech anals will continue.
Looking at the 1 hour, we formed a bullish divergence on the RSI, making a higher low on lower price. But that’s something to kinda ignore until it actually starts to play out as we’re not above any resistances yet. Well we are back above 390, making all those puts at 380 and 390 worthless, but who knows if markets will continue to be “bullish” after shorts closing. We could see another round of shorts entering and pushing it down immediately as we ended right at the 21 EMA where we rejected numerous times. Overall, we are seeing bullishness on RSI, but price action isn’t as bullish. Not fully bearish because of the buy volume, but again, we have to see if those are actually bulls or just shorts covering on Monday. But something to note is the dogshit selling volume throughout the day. Not capitulation yet.
On the daily, we are forming bullish candlestick patterns. A doji followed by a hammer candle that closed above. This is theoretically bullish as it shows a possible decision to the upside along with buyers stepping in. I’m not going to trust it until I see us follow us on big volume Monday. We can see major trend line resistances above where bears and kill SPY at any time. We have the major upwards trendline from 2008 coinciding with the 8 EMA on the daily which we have been rejected at. We could reject there, or at the yellow downwards trendline which we were rejected off of 3 times already. Break all of these and we’re starting to look actually bullish. But overall, just a hella bearish trend and the only bullish sign I see are the 2 candles looking like a reversal and RSI forming another bullish divergence.
Now VIX is showing very bullish signs. Got crushed again on a hugely red day and closed below yesterday. Rejected perfectly on the downtrend and the RSI is rejecting off the MA. These are bearish candles as 2 upper wicks with the second being lower than the last. We could start to see a rally based on VIX, but again, this is a very bearish trend and until I see confirmation, this can just be a trap.
Bonds were up today, like steadily rising all day unlike the stocks. This is a bullish development as it shows risk entering the markets. Something to keep in mind.
The 10 year is looking like a confirmation of a roll over and heading lower into the bear flag. This is bullish for the markets and possibly signs of peak inflation. The next break lower should be 2.73%ish.
The dollar went up today, but just barely. It’s still looking very weak and shows that maybe risk on sentiment is entering back in.
Overall, these are showing bullish signs even though SPY is showing overall bearish. Something to keep in mind as we could still get a huge retard rally up. Another thing to note that makes me not as bullish is that bitcoin did not have a similar rally up. If risk on sentiment was entering, I would’ve expected Bitcoin to rise huge as well. But Apple looks like it did bottom so we’ll see.
On SPY weekly, we are not seeing any bullishness. A hammer followed by a lower wick and another red week. This could be signaling another red week as the bullish candle was overwhelmed by a bearish one. But something to note again are all the bullish divergences forming on SPY on the daily and shorter timeframes, whether you’re looking at stochastics, MACD or RSI. The last 2 candles are showing bullish on SPY. The other stuff like DXY, yields, bonds and VIX are showing bullish. And finally, we can see that the selling volume on the weekly has dropped off hard. My thoughts are that we do rally, but I’m not gonna go screaming it until I see confirmation this time. A ton of bullish divergences and we’ll see if they play out. This doesn’t seem like capitulation just yet and just looks like a buyers strike. Not everyone running for the doors just yet, so be careful and make some money.
I’m just gonna start venting here and there’s no more anal. I completely blew up my acc and I’m going to take a break. I’m just done with stocks right now. For the last 2+ weeks, like 90% of my plays were right if I held for 5 more mins. But I either got stopped out or I cut out of fear. My entries were shit because I was scared. It’s fucking pathetic and annoying seeing all the 100%+ get away from me. I’m tired of it. Just recently, I predicted the red day on Wednesday, but my put got stopped out and SPY tanked 4%. I then said a low of 388 Thursday and then form a higher low. We had a low of 387 before tracking up. I got stopped out of my calls right before a huge green candle to the 390’s. So today, I cut my calls at open and then decide to enter if SPY held above my resistances at 391.8 as that was my support and the 1 hour 8 EMA and RSI hit the bottom. SPY hold so I re-enter SPY and watch my calls gain 33%. I was going to cut, but I remembered all the weeks before and how I was right, but fear stopped me from making thousands. So I held and held for the first damn time. Then the one time I trust my conviction, we drill to 380. Then we get the shorts covering that I was waiting for. Just fucking annoying seeing my plays all before be right and me exit too early and this one time is the time I enter too damn early/ not cut out of fear. I’m taking a damn break and hopefully come back better.
13 Likes
TLDR: I think most likely we’ll see a test of 400 tomorrow and then if we break through, we’ll see a bear market rally or the start of the final bull run rally.
Looking at the 1 hour chart, SPY has bounced off the 8 EMA all day and rode upwards. The RSI is also nicely above the MA and the stochastic oscillator is bullish although very overextended. Overall, the 1 hour is looking bullish, although it’s on very low volume so I want to see big volume come in to confirm this trend.
Looking back at the March retard rally, I think that it’s fair to say that if this is a real bull rally, the stochastic being overextended shouldn’t matter too much along with the RSI. If we do see a continued move upwards, the stochastic and RSI going down to 45 at the hourly would just signal a good buy opportunity. Also the overextensions on the RSI and stochastic won’t matter too much since the daily and the weekly’s are so oversold that I expect a huge rally on shorter timeframes which will ignore the overbought readings.
On the daily, we closed basically right on the 8 EMA and the trendline from 2008. Break back above these trendlines will be crucial for a bear market rally. Beyond this, we have the downtrend line that’s been respected 3 times so far and the 21 EMA which has historically been a strong support/resistance. These next 2 days will be crucial for bulls as they want to break above all these levels to get a huge move upwards. Only thing is that there was literally zero volume today which makes me think that either this is a huge bull trap or people are just waiting to see if we can actually break above these crucial levels before stepping in.
VIX made another upwick on the daily, which is showing bullishness. Only thing I don’t like is that it didn’t get crushed as much as I would’ve liked it to with a 2% day on SPY. Today was very flat so that could be the reason, but we could also get another spike on the VIX. But VIX is looking very bearish and looking to roll over and lead to a SPY rally.
Looking at other things such as yields and the dollar, the yields were up big today, testing the 8 and 21 EMA. Breaking back above would be bearish for stocks and tech especially. The dollar died today, knifing to $102, possibly showing signs that risk on moves will be heading into markets. Bonds were down, which is not a good sign too. PCC showed lots of puts exiting the markets, possibly signaling another green day in store for us.
Overall, charts are looking more bullish, but the volume isn’t there to confirm it. I think by Thursday, we should have a clear idea if we’re going to retest 380 or go make some new local highs. Until I see a big volume green day, I’m hesitant to say I’m bullish and expect a rally to 430 or whatever, although I do believe that we’ll see SPY to 430. Ideally tomorrow, we get to 402 to break the downtrend line with conviction and then break above the 21 EMA with conviction on Wednesday to confirm a new bull trend. For now, it’s just scalping and waiting to see what SPY does.
4 Likes
TLDR: I think we’ll see a massive rally following the FOMC minutes release tomorrow. Not guaranteed, but even if we don’t get a massive rally off the FOMC, I still think we’re not going to go much lower than the lows we established.
Looking at the markets, SPY hit -20% and Nasdaq hit -30%. This is typically around the time the Fed enters and is like “hah nooo don’t go into a bear market, you’re too cute for that ha ha. I was joking.” Similar to the 2018 situation. Anyways let me just first look at the previous 3 minutes releases to see what you fucks should expect.
1/5/2022 Minutes
Flat until the minutes release and then we took a shitter. I’m pretty sure this is when the hikes got announced or confirmed so it makes sense.
2/16/2022
Sell off at open, flat throughout the day and then a tiny run up into the FOMC minutes and then a rally afterwards.
4/6/2022
Morning sell off, then flat and then run up into minutes release and then a sell off into a retard run into a retard sell off into a retard run and then end flat.
Basically, we should be expecting a morning dump followed by a relatively flat day which should lead us into a minutes release run up and then at 2pm, a $1-2 pump where we can sell our fds for quick gains and then see if we continue to rally or not. My belief is that we do rally as this is around the time the fed comes in to save the day. I know these are minutes and recorded like 2 weeks prior, but markets were already in the shitter in May. I expect more dovish tones from the fed either here or soon.
Spy on the hourly moved back above the 21 and 8 EMAs and is currently forming an inverse h&s. Breaking above should send us up to around 408. RSI is still above 45 which is in the bullish range. Not much to say other than it’s looking bullish as we’re eating up all the dips now.
On the day, we had low volume again, but still more than yesterday’s (esp when we look back at 8pm since the day volume isn’t over yet). We formed a hammer candle after a sell off, which is bullish. It looks like buyers are coming back into the market. We are still not above the 8 EMA, the green trendline or the downtrend line, but we are looking strong. If the fomc minutes are the catalyst we need, we should see a gap fill in the 410’s very soon. Overall, not much else to say probably until tomorrow since today was just seeing if there are buyers in the markets, which is does look like it.
VIX closed red today with another upwick. Although VIX is still technically up from yesterday, it’s looking very bearish with the number of upwicks and unable to form and hold new highs. VIX is showing that markets are not looking to drill much more and we should be expecting a rally soon.
Other things to note is that yields were down massively, giving stocks more room to breathe, the dollar went down even more, bonds went up and PCC is saying more calls are entering the markets. Overall, bullish signs and we’ll see if the fomc catalyst can help us confirm it.
In conclusion, expect a morning selloff as it has for the last 3 times during minutes release days, and then a flat day with a minutes run up and then a pump. What we’ll do after that is unknown so be careful and manage your port. I’m going to play the FOMC minutes release as that has been consistently good call scalps if you can control your greed and hit sell fast enough.
7 Likes
Wanna see what having no life looks like? I looked at the last 5 FOMC minutes releases and checked their average moves and when to typically buy.
TLDR Averages:
Bottom time: 11:18am-ish, basically always see a morning dip
FOMC run up top: 1:12pm-ish - typically ends 15-30 mins before 2pm
Move of the minute release: 0.336% up - basically dump at $1 if you wanna be safe, although the last 2 moves has been $2
If you’re a degen and decide to hold beyond the pump: 0.114% up from the start of the 2pm candle start
For the exact data (the times aren’t exact because I don’t have 1 min candles, just 15 and 30 min candles):
4/6/2022
Bottom Time: 12pm
Top Time: 1:45pm
Top to bottom percentage: 0.5% - $2
Pump top percentage: 0.5% - $2
End of day move: 0.6% - $2.5
2/16/2022
Bottom Time: 12:30pm
Top Time: 1:15pm
Top to bottom percentage: 0.36% - $1.5
Pump top percentage: 0.48% - $2
End of day move: 1.16% - $5
1/5/2022
Bottom Time: 11:30am
Top Time: 12:30pm
Top to bottom percentage: 0.2% - $0.89
Pump top percentage: 0.24% - $1
End of day move: -1.57% - $death
11/24/2021
Bottom Time: 9:30am - sometime in the open
Top Time: 1pm
Top to bottom percentage: 0.88% - $3
Pump top percentage: 0.15% - $0.6
End of day move: 0.25% - $1.35
10/13/2021
Bottom Time: 10:30pm
Top Time: 1:30pm
Top to bottom percentage: 0.88% - $3
Pump top percentage: 0.31% - $1.35
End of day move: 0.13% - $I don’t care
If you decide to enter based on times and hold beyond the minutes release, you are genuinely autistic and I sincerely hope that you go get evaluated for brain damage. Although I think the gamble of holding beyond minutes are good this time because I do think we’ll get a more dovish fed and cause a insane rally. Although there will be a pullback after the initial pump to re-enter and esp on a better IV.
Do not enter based on the times, look at your TA and see where SPY is at support and if it’s starting to consolidate and bottom. Just remember that recently, it has bottomed near noon and topped a little after 1pm. There are 2 good moves during fed minutes release. One is timing the bottom well then riding the IV and price up and then cutting - which is profitable, I got multiple 50% gains last time and that was me cutting early. The second is the minutes release which you should either set a limit stop at whatever or have bullet fingers to sell quick.
Good luck and I hope this no life anal helps others have a better idea of their game plan tomorrow.
9 Likes
this is so fucking retarded it should be immediately shunned. see you at fucking 11:18
5 Likes
I do not and cannot support this. But I’m in.
7 Likes