Super Bowl and Stock Marker correlation

Something I saw about the way the general market trades after Super Bowl wins.

“ The Super Bowl Indicator Theory suggests that the stock market will have a positive year if the team in the National Football Conference, or a team with an NFC origin, wins. If the American Football Conference team wins, the market will fall. According to the recent news (Market Watch, 2/6/2017), it has accurately predicted the direction of the market for the year following 40 of the 50 Super Bowls since the first super bowl in 1967.”

https://www.raymondjames.com/-/media/rj/advisor-sites/sites/w/e/westwealthmanagement/files/post_michael-west_linkedin_is_the_super_bowl_a_market_barometer.pdf?la=en#:~:text=The%20Super%20Bowl%20Indicator%20Theory,wins%2C%20the%20market%20will%20fall.

From Tedro: This indicator being wrong since 2015.

RE: Super Bowl Indicator

Market efficiency would say that stock prices and other securities prices reflect all
available and relevant information. (Investopedia, 2017) A graphic displaying all the
data and the results taken from Vintage Value Investing gives us a view of the
consistency or inconsistency of this indicator. Whether this becomes a self-fulfilling
prophesy and sports fans sell with the AFL wins and buy with the NFL wins is still to be
seen but over the past 20 years this indicator could have led you astray. Important
down years 2000, 2001 and 2008 were all outliers. Key to investing is being in when the
markets are rising and protecting on the down years. And 1998 and 1999 up years
would have been missed if you followed this indicator.

Still interesting to discuss

The Super Bowl Theory has been written about in various financial publications. The theory was right 15 out of 16 times in the beginning. It’s been less accurate since then but it’s still entertaining to watch. Good luck!