TEAM - Another Team Player in the Covid Pump


Atlassian is a software company that has benefited from the covid pump along with all the other tech/remote work companies. You may already be familiar with some of its SaaS solutions, such as JIRA, Confluence, and Bitbucket.

From May, its stock has more than doubled, topping out at 483 before dropping the past month. You may ask if this was from its latest earnings? Surprisingly it was NOT. In fact, TEAM increased ~10% the following day from their latest earnings. After reading the Q1/22 report, it did come out overall positive, but I noticed some concern that they discussed in their fiscal 2022 outlook. I’ll try and sum it up here:

  1. Cloud revenue will continue to increase, but data center and server revenue will be mixed.
  2. They’re stopping the sales of their Server Licenses to push Cloud and Data Center offerings.
  3. Gross and operating margin will decrease.
  4. Small share dilution (2%).

They do not paint a stellar picture for next year in my opinion. I’d love to see if anyone can also dig up some information regarding their subscription sales. Maybe compared to ClickUp?

Not to mention, they benefit from high institutional ownership, ~86%. Overall analysts rate them high, see below, but could they start seeing competitors eat into their growth?

Their latest earnings report was in late October, I am really curious how the market would have reacted if they reported in December instead. In any case, their next earnings are late January (estimated Jan 26, 2022 - Jan 31, 2022). Not a direct comparison, but if you look at Asana they reported higher losses compared to last year and it tumbled 28% in early December, MF ASAN Ref.

What do they do?

Atlassian Corporation Plc is a holding company. The Company offers a range of team collaboration products. The Company offers products, including JIRA, Confluence, HipChat, Bitbucket and JIRA Service Desk, for software developers, information technology (IT) managers and knowledge workers. The Company offers JIRA for team planning and project management; Confluence for team content creation and sharing; HipChat for team real-time messaging and communications; Bitbucket for team code sharing and management, and JIRA Service Desk for team service and support applications. JIRA allows teams to organize their work into projects and customize dashboards for those projects to keep their teams aligned and on track. Confluence provides a system for organizing, sharing and securing content in spaces arranged by team, project, department and others. The Company also offers additional tools for software developers, such as FishEye, Clover, Crowd, Crucible, Bamboo and SourceTree.

How do they make money?

License or subscriptions to use their suite of tools.

Why are they important?

They are one of the largest and well known team based productively tools.

What are their products?

  • Jira
  • Confluence
  • Hipchat / Stride
  • Bitbucket / Bitbucket Server
  • Bamboo
  • Fisheye
  • Crucible
  • Trello
  • Atlassian Marketplace
  • Sourcetree
  • Crowd
  • Statuspage
  • OpsGenie
  • Jira Align
  • Halp
  • Mindville


  • ClickUp
  • (15.17B market camp)
  • Github
  • Trello
  • Rally
  • Asana (16.97B market camp)
  • Pivotal Tracker

Google Trends

Trend is flat with Atlassian as a whole, but Trello and JIRA dominate.


Analyst Ratings

Analysts have done nothing but rate this thing higher.

Technical Analysis

As I mentioned earlier, it peaked at the end of October and has been trending down. I’m surprised of how well the fibonacci retracement levels fit into the May to current day trends. I’ll be looking to see if it breaks through the 50% level or gets rejected and heads further down closer to the May 2021 price.

Earnings Heatmap

This is really not an earnings play, but worth looking to see how they have been performing in the past.


Overall I’m bearish on TEAM in the short/medium term. From their last earnings report, they are already casting doubt if they will have as much growth as they had in 2021. As they transition to being a cloud only company, they may lose some clientele, and furthermore they face rising competition by new competitors which may continue to slow growth. They warn their margins will not be as good as they have been, which combined with a potential upset in growth, could really disappoint.

This is a longer term play, but will be looking if they continue to uptick again before I place any puts. I have no position currently, but would love to have any feedback. Consider this a Jira ticket for your next sprint.


This content is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing in this DD constitutes professional and/or financial advice, nor does any of this information constitute a comprehensive or complete statement of the matters discussed or the law relating thereto.

Reference Links

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Good DD. I work for a large MSP and we use OpsGenie. I know several vendors that use JIRA ticketing and other stuff on this list as well.

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It has been a few weeks so I figured I would give an update to my thoughts about TEAM.

Recently there has what I would consider a small amount of reduced holdings from investment types.

Sit Large Cap Growth Fund reduced to a holding in Atlassian Corporation PLC by 26.02%. The sale prices were between $258.43 and $413.94, with an estimated average price of $333.64. The stock is now traded at around $387.920000. The impact to a portfolio due to this sale was -0.4%. Sit Large Cap Growth Fund still held 7,675 shares as of 2021-09-30.

Maybe this is the beginning of a larger trend?

Reviewing and continuing with the same chart I had in my initial post, there was another hard bounce off the 50% fib retracement level (one could said also the bollingers). The bounce was significant, breaking through the 38% resistance. TEAM has been heavily correlated with the SPY and tech run up, so much of the recent gains have been in relation with them.

I am still looking for an entry. Mainly looking to see if it continues up towards the next resistance around 410 or breaks back down pass 368. Volume has been terrible lately and options premiums are high. So take what you will with that. As earnings approach (~Jan 26th) I’d like to see a few things:

  1. Updated analyst ratings
  2. General news about team management companies coming out covid 2021.
  3. Options flow trends

I’m still overall bearish with their current valuation, newcomers eating into their marketshare, and losing steam from the COVID pump.