Are you predicting more decline lower than the oct-nov 2022 lows? I personally thought we would be hitting bottom last Nov just by looking at 2007 downturn. If you look at that, it only took ~13 months to hit the bottom.
Why do you have Real Real as possible bankruptcy candidate?
Thanks for sharing all this.
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I’ve read through your screenshots and I’m not sure what the hypothesis is (as it covers housing, food, and more.) But I think it’s primarily about housing - so are you saying there are too many houses because boomers are dying? Don’t you think their descendants who perhaps cannot afford to buy a house will inherit said houses and move in? There are also immigrants moving to the US in record numbers, all of whom also will want to buy houses (eventually - from personal family experience, it’s about 7 years to be able to afford the down payment). Clue me in a bit more about your hypothesis when you have time.
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Thank you for sharing. For me they are too many variables that are hard, almost impossible, to predict. Have you thought about commercial real estate? Should be a more predictable.
Yeah I’m doing more research on commercial real estate (might even just get my license here in CO) we just sold a building in NJ at the top which gave me a cute little inside on how these big boys are negotiating but I still have a lot of work to do