TRIT - Binary outcome play

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Much of this DD will be sourced from this thread:

reddit.com: search results - trit

Basic Rundown:

Triterras is a trade finance company who’s main product is Kratos, a platform for commodities trading. The company reached an ATH of $14.35 but has since fallen, most likely due to the 2020 SPAC bubble popping. As for fundamentals, the company is profitable and has $130m in cash on hand.

The Play:

As per the original DD, on June 28th, Triterras announced an internal audit and delayed FY reporting in response to a short report alleging the company of fraud. The audit originally was scheduled to be released in September but the deadline was pushed back to November 1st. Upon a successful audit and release of delayed earnings, Triterras could see significant upside as the uncertainty of the audit and confirmed financials are released.

Good news:

This morning the CEO released a roadmap for future growth of the Kratos platform

The company is planning on showcasing the platform in 2 weeks at the Global Trade Review Conference

Now all of this could mean nothing, but it seems like a lot of confidence for a company that knows its platform is a scam and will be confirmed publicly upon the completion of the audit.

Risk:

The obvious risk here is an unsuccessful audit. On top of that however, while the company is planning on completing the audit by November 1st, they also planned to have it completed by September 30th, there could be another extension granted although signs are pointing towards a November 1st completion: Triterras Provides Update on Independent Audit of Fiscal 2021 Financials :: Triterras, Inc. (TRIT)

PT and Positions:

The original DD has a price target of $12.5, I’m not an expert on this and can’t really corroborate, however the release of strong 2021 financials should remove the uncertainty and allow for the market to properly react to the 2021 earnings, I’m eyeing an $8-$9 target.

30 11/19 7.5 calls
50 11/19 10 calls

Please feel free to add on any thoughts or other sources!

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Adding this for more circumstantial evidence, again could mean nothing but it seems like some funds are betting big on a positive announcement

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Here’s the update by the original Reddit poster: Reddit - Dive into anything

Trading floor seems to feel like it’s bearish, but I’m not so sure. Doesn’t this hint that the audit is concluded at least? That removes one bear-case (extension) and now it’s a bet on if this pass or not

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Christmas came early! Audit passed. Let’s see what the market thinks at open

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Good day so far, congrats to everyone who played this! Trimmed my position by half, will continue to trim if it goes up

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Thank you for the call👍 trimmed position to Half on 500% profit.

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very good call! look forward to more :slight_smile:

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