Trying to chill with Mickey at his Clubhouse DIS

[Spidey61]

So full disclaimer to get this started, I am posting this to see if you guys might have some more insight and knowledge on a potential play. I have never done a DD, so before railing me at least use some lube LOL!

I have been feeling like Disney has the potential to come back with a vengeance, since this will be the Spring and Summer Homecoming post COVID and the regulations that accompanied it. I live near the Mouse and visit him occasionally, you can definitely tell by traffic on 95 when vacationers start dropping down.

I pulled the past 6 years from Dec-August to get a feel if any of when traffic increases to its stock. This is what can be seen.

What I believe I’m seeing is similar increases in price from the Winter running to the Spring. Out of the 5 years that have passed 3 of 2 show a similar positive increase in stock price from March to April. The percent changes listed next to the year are actually the change only from March to April.

From a quick glance I think that the 19-20 COVID year looks to be a good comparable for this year as both have negative world catalysts affecting the respective years. Even during COVID the Mouse rebounded and had gains going into Spring and Summer from its March low.

So since I am a broke trader, I have started getting fills on some Mickey Mouse Clubhouse FD’s that hopefully will pay for my annual pass this year. I have Jan 2023 $250 C with .52, .40 and .37 fills. I have orders in for 2 more at .30 and 2 more at .20 in case Putin does something crazy and the market decides to drop more. Other calls getting closer to the money are pretty cheap as well just outta my league though. My target price to sell is $150-$160. Insert PepePray. Long Live Valhalla!!

Was able to get another today (Feb 14) at .35, I switched my future orders to 4 at .20.

Been trying to look deeper into the Mouse chart in hopes of hopefully seeing some sort of outlook. So Disney is in what looks like a descending channel. I checked SPX and other big stocks and many are in similar channels. SPX though has broken above its channel for the past five days. The view below is an updated and mag view of the above.

The chart above is from EOD MAR 23.

From this mag view, looks like Mid-April for a possible move up (upper channel intersection) as long as it doesn’t get rejected by the 143.65 level or a move down further in the channel by the gravity of SPX post death cross and or Cata-Putin-lyst. Kinda hoping for some more movement down to get even better fills. Would love to have 20-30 contracts before it starts moving up so I can break the sell orders into several groups.

[Spidey61]

Was able to get another fill at .28 today. Still have my order for 4 at .20. I don’t think it’ll happen but stranger things have happened here recently so, I’m going to put another couple orders in, 1 at .15 and 4 at .10. May the luck of the Irish bring us green all year!

[Spidey61]

Got one fill at .22, my portfolio was getting blue balls from all the teasing of fills at .21 but not dropping to my revised order of 5 @ .20. Might just switch to get 5 at .21 if it drops to that level again. The rest of the leap chain is sitting at nice discounts as well. Happy Hump Day!

[Spidey61]

So I broke down and got one more fill at .24. I’ve got 7 fills so far, one of each @ .52, .40, .37, .35, .28, .23 and .24. Today’s Disney candle ended with a wick as well as SPX. Hoping those wicks are good vibes for a move down tomorrow so I can finally get my new revised order of 5 @ .21 filled. I revised from .20 to .21 because the Mouse has refused to give me .20 fills.

[Spidey61]

Was able to get 9 fills at .23 today. The .20 or .21 wasn’t happening so I figured might as well get the fill at the low 20’s I could get. Have 16 contracts right now so I feel pretty good, time to hopefully just ride up. I have some orders for 10 @ .10 just in case any crazy war news comes out and drops it. I doubt it’ll go that low but who knows, crazy stock times.

[Spidey61]

Picked up 14 more @.25 (total 30) at market close yesterday. Closed below the blue ascending trend line at EOD yesterday so charted the yellow trend line. This morning surprisingly the Mouse jumped back above the blue original ascending trend line. Guess the mouse tail on the candle was a bullish mouse tail. Happy Taco Tuesday!

[Spidey61]

Quick chart update. Hoping it keeps the upward movement and can break above the upper descending channel.

[Spidey61]

Todays drop got me some more fills, 5 @ .23 and just picked a single @ .21 (36 contracts total). Might setup some orders for lower buys.

[Spidey61]

Alright was excited to plot this update to the initial graph that got me into wanting to buy in to the mouse. So one month in it actually dropped. I’m digging the drop since it has given me plenty of buy in opportunities. My cost average is .26 with 36 contracts as of today.

So today the chart actually broke down further below the trend line (purple trend line) that seemed to have been formed. Tomorrow we’ll get the confirmation. Big wick and lots of FUD because of CPI. Honestly I would love another dip to further lower my cost average even more. There’s a critical support at 128, a breakdown below that and we head to Mickeys Dungeon. I’ve got orders for 2 @ .20. If the breakdown below 128 happens I might look to setup orders for 10 @ .10.

[Spidey61]

So this happened today, something I wasn’t sure would happen but it happened. I had been hoping it would so I could get even lower fills and if it gaps down further tomorrow the next major resistance is shown below.

So to prepare for this potential further drop I have set an order for 10 @ .15 fills. And a crazy but Fantasia size order of 40 @ .01 (really don’t think it’ll go there, but just in case Putin engages more crazy).

I hadn’t been on but I did pick up more contracts, 7 @ .21 and 7 @ .20 bringing my total to 50 contracts with a cost average of .24.

I feel like this is going to give a nice opportunity at a low risk earnings play (these being Leaps) set for May 11 after hours. I have been scouring Reddit and talking to friends and coworkers to get a feel of what the first spring and summer post COVID restrictions is looking like down there. I have been getting more responses towards a big comeback feel to the parks. Many responses and also posts relay a sense of heavily to unexpected heavily packed parks. I’m hoping that this heavy traffic plus Disney Plus two tier subscription system leads to good numbers for May 11.

[Spidey61]

Almost forgot to mention Jan 19, 2024 Leaps are on sale as well, the 250 FD is at $1.25 fills. I have been contemplating a rollover. Will get a better feel after May 11 earnings and make a move.

[Isaiah]

I didnt see this before but i share your opinion and am going to play earnings. In short travel and hospitality is up and disney keeps going down and trading along with spy weakly

[Iloveyou]

https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1516415141608402951

This is worth keeping an eye on. Disney is at odds with Desantis and the FL Legislature is threatening to essentially remove Disney’s right to govern itself through a special government district it controls. If they go through with it, Disney is no longer a special district and whichever jurisdiction they’re in (Orange County, I guess) is responsible for services. They’d have the power to cause all sorts of messes for Disney from trash pickup to fire services to taxes.

[Spidey61]

I’ve been watching it as well, so far I think it’s a usual political flex. He’s got the power to do it but really it would affect Orange County I think more heavily and in turn the state. Disney has their own infrastructure in place. To then shift all that over to a county which is not prepared to take over with unavailable resources would be a shot in the foot I think. If it does come to it I’m sure Disney would embrace Orange County and make it a “Magical Partnership” as always. The park is a big part of the business but when you zoom out the Florida park is just one piece of a bigger puzzle. Will be interesting to see the moves going forward. If a further drop is coming I have my orders ready and awaiting to be filled. Thank goodness for leaps

[Spidey61]

Crazy day today, the Mouse had a nice run all day then rode Splash Mountain after hours. The .16 fills were hovering over my order for 10 @ .15 today. Hoping the morning brings great fills. I setup another just in case order for 10 @ .07.

[Spidey61]

So definite drop from the 128 support imaged, the next big support is down in the entrance to The Dungeon of Mouse. Big wick to end the day, kinda hoping it shoots a red lower candle. Fills (.16) were teasing my 10 @ .15 order all day. Would love to get that order filled.

[Spidey61]

So another move down and a decent wick to end the day. Looks like we are in a bit of uncertainty for the market, I’m all for it if it’ll fill my orders. Hoping for a Friday sell off so I can end the week happy.

My 10 @ .15 order still didn’t fill. Agghhh! Portfolio Blue Balls are in effect. .16 fills throughout the day but just avoiding .15. I was going to switch my orders to .16 but the way things moved today I’m hoping tomorrow I can get those filled. Till tomorrow

[Spidey61]

So looks like we are getting closer to the entrance to Mickey’s Dungeon, if that 113 level doesn’t hold we will enter the dungeon where juicy fills (.10 and under) and Dominatrix Minnie await. LOL!

My portfolio blue balls were too much so I changed my order to 10 @ .16 which got filled. I’m at a total of 60 contracts with a cost average of .23. I feel pretty happy with these, I have set some Goofy orders for the possible fall into the Dungeon, 10 @ .07 and 45 @ .01. These are not orders I am going to watch over like I have been, if they happen they happen. The market being super bearish, fed talk and then still the Putin factor with his self set May 9 deadline, just feels like anything can happen. The latter are the only reasons I have set the Goofy orders. Alright hope everyone is having a good weekend.

[Spidey61]

Magical .15 fills on the 250 2023 Leap are live. The whole leap chain looking really nice fill wise if anybody is trying to pick up some. I have been contemplating rolling over to the 2024 Leap to buy more time and security for my cash. Fills for the 2024 250 Leap at $1.22. The exit timing for me would still be around the stock price of $160 range, of course this is after already taking initial profits at a lower level of stock price. Happy Monday!

[MENoir]

what’s the cutoff for making profit on these @ $160 underlying?