TSLA - delivery numbers and ER hype for January

I am starting up this new TSLA thread to focus on this month’s updates for the stock.

What’s going on with TSLA?
Today Tesla posted blockbuster delivery numbers: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/02/tesla-tsla-q4-2021-vehicle-delivery-and-production-numbers.html

According to a consensus compiled by FactSet, Wall Street analysts had anticipated Tesla deliveries of 267,000 in the fourth quarter and 897,000 for all of 2021.

The result? Tesla deliveries amounted to 308,600 electric cars in the fourth quarter and full-year deliveries amounted to 936,172 vehicles. They managed to do this without Giga Berlin and Giga Texas.

Delivery Numbers and Projections
Below is a screenshot from the Bloomberg terminal regarding consensus estimates of the next several years. Tesla is likely to pull 2023 delivery numbers in 2022 at the rate they are going.

InsideEV graphed the delivery surge:

Upcoming Catalysts
With this update, I expect bullish Price Target updates from analysts in the coming 1-2 weeks.

Tesla is also estimated to report earnings on January 26, 2022.

I think it is likely to see the stock price run in the next couple weeks to at least previous highs of 1200-1240 on the delivery news, PT upgrades, and earnings hype. Personally I would not hold any calls through the actual ER and rather play the trend before & after as we have learned that this is the most reliable ER strategy so far.

A bit of TA
Here is the 3 month chart. Pretty much every TSLA chart I have seen has the same downward channel and implied breakout. I have ~1150, ~1200 and ~1240 zones as areas of support/resistance. I am thinking of taking Jan 7 1200c FDs tomorrow, and I would ideally sell at around 1200 where I expect there should be some profit-taking/pullback as it approaches previous ATHs, and 1200 is a nice round psychological number.

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Far OTM calls with tight stop losses in case Elon tweets a dick pic or whatever and tanks the stock. God speed. I have the same thoughts as you.

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Congrats all who made money on this play! TSLA closed 13.53% up for the day, and ran as expected upon the positive sentiment surrounding the delivery update.

Just came across these Tweets surrounding some kinda big announcement at the end of week? It’s been retweeted by the Tesla twitters, including Dave Lee who is fairly reputable: https://twitter.com/heydave7/status/1478144112280883202

Anyone got more background? Could be another catalyst for FDs again.

Apparently might be related to announcement of production to begin in Giga Texas. Rumours surrounding sightings of Tesla vehicles being driven in and out of the factory and some battery cell 4680 production equipment:

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Asked my friend who works at TSLA and that’s his best guess. Also, Rivian and Tesla have been recruiting like absolute mad. Hundreds of new employees each week. Momentum is really increasing and this inflow of cash is allowing both companies to move forward on all projects as fast as possible.

The announcement on Friday he can’t confirm anything about. Just rumours and speculation. But the most obvious one is production to begin.

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Market is currently killing everything right now including tech. Tesla stock falls in that weird range though where it trades on all of Elon’s projects outside of Tesla. It makes it trade oddly from all the others we typically play. Also, Tesla has long been a meme stock before meme stocks were recognized.

They did report great delivery numbers, but those are just cars delivered on pre-order sales that could have been accounted for already in it’s share price. Also, Google Trends shows a decline in searches for Tesla and Tesla Model X, Y, and 3. I think they had a nice run for the pandemic, but with current inflationary fears and talks of recession Tesla in my eyes won’t sustain the type of growth for 2022 that we’ve seen over the last 2 years.




I may try a put on TSLA for earnings, but it is very hard for me to judge which direction it will go. Institutions might not like the numbers or guidance, but retail loves it and may keep it afloat.

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Also wanted to add here some more comparisons for a decline in visits to Tesla.com over the last few months. September to October saw a decline of 100k visits whereas October to November saw a decline of over 1 million. This just adds to the case of possible weakness to their upcoming earnings.

Tesla of course though still maintains a primary audience in the U.S. as the top visitors to it’s site.

Slightly more bearish on this one.

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Interesting article I just saw on Bloomberg, “Tesla Now Runs the Most Productive Auto Factory in America”

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2022-tesla-factory-california-texas-car-production/

Last year Tesla’s factory in Fremont, California, produced an average of 8,550 cars a week. That’s more than Toyota Motor Corp.’s juggernaut in Georgetown, Kentucky (8,427 cars a week), BMW AG’s Spartanburg hub in South Carolina (8,343) or Ford Motor Co.’s iconic truck plant in Dearborn, Michigan (5,564), according to a Bloomberg analysis of production data from more than 70 manufacturing facilities.

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Just about to listen to this analysis for Q4 ER by Dave Lee, a reputable Tesla investor.

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option flow. actually unsure. more premium on puts but more calls OI.


Considering letting a few lottos run after selling run-up tomorrow.

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Recent news for Tesla before earnings report: Elon Musk to unveil Tesla's future road map this week as stock endures market rout | Fortune

TSLA conference call notes that I’m jotting down here cos I was driving at the time.

  • Production-volume is expected to grow 50% in 2022 all the way to 2024

  • however will not produce any new models this year. Supply chain constraints with chips is expected to be a factor till later this year but resolved by next year

  • believes fully-automated driving software to be launched this year. This software they believe will be the driving force in profitability.

  • Austin and Berlin up and running. Will start producing soon but chip constraints still apply

  • solar cells and solar power production expected to produce 1TW/hr whatever that means but moving away from nickel batteries to iron

  • Optimus labour bots expected to be released and will first be implemented in TSLA factories as general labourers

  • took a dig at other car manufacturers as they had to scale back in 2021 and Tesla increased production and continues to increase production.

  • margins and profitability are increasing

  • even afte 700M payout to Elon, had enough money to pay down legacy debt and retire some high interest debt

  • someone from TSLA dropped F-bomb on call

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Digging at other manufacturers that build millions of vehicles compared to his couple hundred thousand? And those couple hundred thousand he couldn’t even make with quality parts? Fuck Tesla. Bearish.

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Great breakdown by Dave Lee regarding updated Tesla roadmap

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So my opinion on current price action is that you’re seeing TSLA’s shrinking market share start to be factored into its valuation. The times of its unimpeded dominance are coming to a close as more and more automakers are starting to seriously transition towards EVs. Does this mean TSLA won’t ever see 1K again? Not necessarily, but I would be weary of being a hyper bull on this one for now. But of course TSLA doesn’t ever make sense so who knows.

What I do know is that for the longer term, this issue will only grow for them and its why I think TSLA will look to seek out a merger sooner rather than later.

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Thanks, Conq for the post. Feel like this was a PSA for all of us TSLA chasers! Expensive lesson learned for me.

This summary of TSLA’s prospects in the upcoming year make a solid bearish case. Also Ridn2lo’s assessment that poor quality and lack of service are going to hinder it from becoming a major automotive player make sense. Overall the market reaction to EVs yesterday seems to be they’re overvalued. RIVN and LCID, if seen as direct competitors with TSLA, I would think would see an uptick if TSLA came out with production issues. But the sector seems to be trading as a whole. Gonna wait for TSLA to make Terminators before I buy back in.

I wonder what the timeline looks like for their marketshare coming down. They’re expecting to ramp up production (and presumably sales), but I wonder how they’re expecting to sell more and more luxury-priced cars. Like for the average person who buys a used car for $10k or a new car for $25k, what will it take for them to buy a $45k (at the low end) Tesla? Based on this article, while they’re already losing marketshare, their sales are still rising. Tesla is losing US EV market share but gaining luxury share, now outselling Mercedes-Benz. So marketshare might not be a super big problem if they’re only 30% of the market in 5 years, but the market is 10x as big.