Will need some corroboration but the margin loan on TSLA shares could cause some headache for Musk.
https://twitter.com/TheLastBearSta1/status/1518964366900666369
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We’re definitely seeing this priced in to a certain extent. That is to say, I’d imagine it’s priced in at this current level. Given TSLA’s strong earnings performance I’m not seeing anything but a rally on the horizon from here (dependent on MSFT and GOOG posting not awful earnings)
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https://twitter.com/michaelsantoli/status/1518672691796058114
Just sticking this in here
The video from SpotGamma goes into some of the details around the various price levels and their effects. Essentially, if TSLA price falls below $750, Musk will not be able to raise the 12.5B he needs to, given the number of unpledged shares he has left. (Half his shares are already pledged. To what!?)
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Elon Musk sold roughly $4 billion worth of Tesla Inc. stock in the two days after agreeing to buy Twitter Inc. for $44 billion, according to regulatory filings made public late Thursday.
The Tesla chief executive reported selling a total of more than 4.4 million shares on Tuesday and Wednesday at prices between around $870 and $1,000 a share, the filings show.
Before this week’s sales, Mr. Musk owned roughly 17% of the electric-vehicle maker, or more than 172 million shares, according to FactSet.
(Source)
Frankly this is probably a better way of raising a good chunk of the 12.5B, if not all of it. Reduces complications around collateralized loans, margins, etc. and chances for shenanigans because the Oct timeline to close the deal is a long time away.
May have caused the 12% dip as word of transactions this size gets out even if he’s using block sales.
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It would be interesting tommorrow to see TSLA price action if we get a recovery
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I … put.
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Yup, SEC filings confirm he rode the price all the way down from the top at the beginning of the day on Apr 26 to the very bottom at the end of the day- from $999.13 to $872.02. Relentless.
This will likely put folks on edge - next time there is a gap down of any sort, people will assume he’s dumping even if he’s not. It’s also curious because there are mechanisms to prevent exactly this type of adverse price action happening when insiders dump large amounts of shares, and for some reason he didn’t use them.
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Or TSLA will start to rocket back up because the selling is over which was creating a lot of downwards pressure. Who knows? Find out on the next episode of: What the actual fuck is going on in the stock market? Nobody knows!
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https://twitter.com/thelastbearsta1/status/1518964374181974018?s=21&t=fzJStmMcEapAMADU8Se1JA
Could you please comment on this? The poster states a 20% decrease in TSLA price could trigger a margin call on his loans.
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There are two covenants at play - one is the terms of the loan itself which has a 20% LTV but 35% margin call, and then the rules that apply to TSLA board members which effectively translates to a 25% margin call. The video linked above has this discussion around the 3 minute mark on how TheLastBearStanding got to the 20% number based on these covenants, and they share the Excel file for us to play with it ourselves.
I took their claims of a 20% reduction in price at face value since Brent at SpotGamma endorsed it - have not checked out the nuts and bolts of the model myself.
Also, @Shamu has a nice explanation of this in the TWTR thread.
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- Elon Musk sold roughly $4 billion worth of Tesla shares in the days following his bid to take Twitter private, according to filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
- The bulk of the CEO’s sales were made on Tuesday, the filings showed. Tesla shares fell 12% that day, but edged higher on Wednesday by less than one percentage point.
- As the filings became public Thursday evening, Musk wrote on Twitter, “No further TSLA sales planned after today.”
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In short, I think TSLA is headed back to the coveted $1,000 level. I swung 1000 strike FD calls last week from the lower $800’s to $900 or so and I’m collecting another position looking for a similar movement.
The thesis is that TSLA was knocked out of orbit by Elon’s sells and rumor of his sells. TSLA’s “fundamentals” are largely unchanged in the eyes of the market, their earnings were good, Elon hasn’t fallen from grace so it’s reasonable to assume it’s back to business as usual when the market stops freaking out, which obviously I’m suspecting will be after today.
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Apparently in Australia, sales of the Model 3 appear to be dramatically getting wiped.
Just 52 examples of the Model 3 sedan were reported as sold in April 2022, a fraction compared to the 3097 reported as sold the month prior.
Even using Tesla’s figure of 4417 sales for the first three months of 2022, the April 2022 tally of 52 deliveries is well below the three-month average of 1472 vehicles per month.
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TSLA’s first gap target is at 566-571…
Would love for this shitter to try 840 again before I get a put.
I’m holding some 5/20 TSLA 1000c and will be looking to see if it can get back up to 900 before selling. 
same boat
While me holding a 750p 5/20
I hope everyone’s having a good weekend.
Giving the Twitter acquisition roller coaster my 2 cents–Elon and team realized they don’t really have the cash to push through with the deal.
These brash talks from Elon have put him in a tight spot–but all he really want is more of that bright spotlight.
Super stupid deal is over and beyond Elon’s grasp and things may have started unraveling…
Tesla funding in comparison was only a few million dollars to start.
SpaceX was also nowhere near this cost of acquiring a non-profitable social media shit-storm platform.
Tesla ain’t spewing profits anytime soon.
TSLA stock and Bitcoin are both plunging in value.
Elon doesn’t have the cash that he’s claiming.
The deal will be canceled, because Elon is shitty.
Just my 2 shitty cents.
<3
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