TSLA - The ticker you all hate!

Archives
1

I know that you all love to hate on Tesla and there are some very solid reasons to do so. Please put aside past opinions on it because I think that there is an opportunity to make some money on this stock in the next couple of weeks.

Please let me know your thoughts on this DD, this is the first formal one I have written.

TSLA got hammered last week, like virtually every other stock. Three major things were at the cause of it. Elon is till currently selling off stock and sold another ~950k last Thursday. He has sold ~7 million shares and has about another 10 million to go. That didn’t help, but TSLA has posted green days before when he has made a large stock sale. Powell removing the transitory term when talking about inflation last Tuesday hit every stock hard. TSLA weathered it decently well, posting a small green number ($.39) that day. During the week, as you all know, the jobs report came out and cases of omicron started popping up throughout the US and tanked just about everything.

Right now we are sitting at a previous level of support around $1000. It has bounced off of this multiple times in the past.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/QXtHx0vZ/

Now for the catalysts that I think will drive the up the price significantly in the next few weeks.

    1. On Tuesday 12/7 the china sales data will be released. The record was set back in September at 56,000 units. In October they recorded 54k units in sales. The sentiment is that TSLA will have another strong period for November somewhere between 55-60k units sold. This is what, I believe, will be the main price driving factor of next week.
    1. On Friday the senate will start discussing the EV credit. The vote will take place “by Christmas.” I don’t think that they will vote on it next week, but the ball will get rolling and create some good sentiment for all EV stocks. As it stands TSLA purchasers would receive $7,500 in tax credit only missing out from the $12,00 because they are a non-union workplace. That is a pretty significant tax break and will only drive up sales in Q1 ’22. People will start jumping on board now in order to “get in early” on what they thing that the stock will do Q1.
    • a. We saw a historic rise last earning cycle for TSLA when it ran for two weeks, one before and one after where it went from around $900 per share all the way over $1200.
    1. This is the most esoteric one. I don’t believe in the information that I am about to post, but I do believe that it will drive sentiment. This is conspiracy theory stuff so get your tin foil hats ready. I am just going to post the link… read it if you want to. Numerology on Twitter | Tesla Motors Club
    • a. Now, they do a lot of convenient math to come up with some of these numbers. Again, I don’t put weight into what they are saying, but some do and this could drive sentiment. Musk is also a grandmaster level troll (see their whistle release last week), he’s narcissistic as fuck and he reads shit about him on the internet. It would not surprise me if he holds some event/release on Thursday.
    1. Giga Austin and Giga Berlin are going to come online at some point in December. Giga Austin has finished and closed their permits and they could literally start producing cars at any time. Giga Berlin is mired in bureaucratic bullshit. In response Elon has removed the request for subsidy and hopefully that will move things along. Going back to number three, it would not surprise me if on Thursday 12/9 he announces that one will start production.

Now lets talk about all the possible pitfalls that could derail this.

    1. Omicron. More cases could/will pop up throughout the country. We could get news that it is less resistant to vaccines.
    1. Debt ceiling talks. We could go into govt. crisis shutdown mode again.
    1. Elon will be selling more shares throughout December and could drive the rice down.
    1. While I think that Austin will for sure come on line in December, we could get news that Berlin is delayed.
    1. While I think that this is the least likely to happen, we could get poor china numbers.

This is a pretty risky play that has a lot of upside. It does take a lot of money to get started because the premiums are very high, even for weeklies.

Please know that I am not giving you financial advice and only take risks that you can afford to lose We are in a super turbulent market currently and things could go sideways quickly. I would appreciate any feedback that you all have.

Thanks!

2 Likes
2

Congress adjourns for the rest of the year this Friday. I thought the EV credit was in the BBB bill?

3

The ev credit is in the BBB bill, which has not passed the senate yet.

Schumer has said that he wants the bill on the floor by the week of 12/13. Manchin is dragging his feet, unsurprisingly because of the ev credit and the union credit because of Toyota’s presence in his state.

As far as being out of session, they are adjourned until 3 PM tomorrow.

I’m trying to find the piece where I saw that they would begin discussing Friday. I’ll link when I find it.

2 Likes
4

Not that I think anyone is actually in this play but…

TSLA dipped down past its support at 1000 all the way to 979 during PM. It rallied back to its support level right before open.

An article saying that the SEC was investigating TSLA over solar panel fires was released and the stock dippped significantly all the way down to 950 before finding support and clawing it’s way back up to close at 1009.

The dip down actually led to a pretty nice entry point. I picked up 4 12/17 1030c that ended up being about 27% green for the day.

I was dealing with car rental shenanigans and wasn’t able to exit the position in a good spot so I’m holding over night.

Tomorrow we are looking for china’s sales numbers. I don’t think it will be announced until AH, maybe even close. I’ll post numbers when they’re released.

With strong numbers, I think this has room to run.

1 Like
5

Ok, so today we had a pretty good day.

It started with a report that UBS raised their price target for TSLA from $750 to $1000, which led to some strong buying sentiment. They cited that TSLA is likely to continue exceeding top line growth and margin expectations in ‘22. They also cited that they don’t think any competitor will be able to “get even close to Tesla in 2022.”

TSLA ended up closing at $1051 with an intraday high of $1057.

One of the pitfalls that was mentioned in the original DD has been sort of averted with congress reaching a deal to raise the debt limit. We still have the possibility of Elon selling more shares tomorrow.

The biggest catalyst is on the horizon with the forthcoming announcement of the china sales numbers. Everyone is expecting huge numbers which should make the ticker run. They haven’t been released yet when I’m writing this. I will post the update when I see the numbers.

I held my 4 12/17 1030 calls overnight. Today they were up 38% and 71% overall.

If the stock runs tomorrow, I plan on exiting and looking for another possible entry. I’m getting anxious holding these.

6

Some good/bad news from the china sales numbers.

Total number of cars sold was 52,859. Down 2,000 from last months ATH. While it is a good number it was not quite as much as was expected. Expected numbers were 55-60k.

This was a rise of 144% YoY, but a decline of 2% from last month. Of the 52k sold, 21k we’re for export.

I’m going to look for a good exit on the 4 1030 calls I have today. Will post final numbers when I do exit.

I will probably wait a bit and look for another good entry to try and capitalize on the momentum gained when Giga Austin opens soon.

1 Like
7

I sold today right before close for a pretty nice little profit.

Slight bit of bad news today with the probable delay of Giga Berlin until ‘22. The permitting nightmare that is going on over there with that right now is significant.

That being said, Giga Austin is still imminent.

I am going to look for another entry for the run up after Giga Austin’s opening.

image
image1284×2778 135 KB

1 Like