TWTR - Possible outcomes to the Musk offer

So I see 3 realistic outcomes to this:

  1. Musk eventually prevails and buys out the company. The company would likely fight the acquisition, so it probably won’t happen quickly, and the takeover could be very hostile.
  2. TWTR finds a white knight to take them private at a price slightly higher than Musk’s offer. The definitive agreement would likely include clauses that make it extremely difficulty to disrupt this acquisition to prevent Musk from putting in another bid.
  3. TWTR succeeds in rejecting the offer while staying a public company. This will not be done with Musk going away quietly. The company will likely be drug through the mud and Musk will find the worst possible time to announce that he’s dumped his stake to drive down their share price. This scenario would likely result in lawsuits against TWTR’s management/board as it would be clear that they’re acting in their own best interests and not shareholders, given that the company has not generated a single dollar in shareholder returns since their IPO.

I think most likely TWTR will be acquired. At this point it’s basically impossible to get Musk to go away, and he would have no issue launching a battle that would destroy the stock price just to prove a point. Keep in mind this is like 1% of his net worth and his reasoning for buying his stake is about control.

I just saw this tweet about an all staff meeting later today. It’s after market close too…



There’s already been news reports about their employees looking for new jobs. You can bet that regardless of what happens there’s going to be a bunch of turnover there. Their employees’ sense of job security must be at an all time low right now.


Given the commentary today by one of the Saudis already, I don’t think this is getting approved today, but who knows. The trading price is basically back to IPO price, but there certainly were points where it was significantly higher. While there could be a lawsuit, I’m not convinced it would be meaningful, only because one has to ask “would Elon be better for Twitter from a monetization and therefore price appreciation standard”.

So I think 2 or 3 is more likely than 1, personally.

That said, there is a hidden short term winner in here - DWAC?


I don’t know how real this offer is, but I saw a tweet that Justin Sun (of the Tron cryptocurrency project) offering to to take Twitter private at $60 per share. In the short term I think there will be interesting volatility to trade off of.

Biggest thing with the offer is it states based on obtaining financing - I think Elon is just playing with them and sending a message. “Basically I can destroy you pull it together”. I suspect they decline the offer or counter and Elon sells his shares with in 90 days.

“I would need to reconsider my position as shareholder,” says Musk if his offer is not accepted.

As a result, I am offering to buy 100% of Twitter for $54.20 per share in cash, a 54% premium over the day before I began investing in Twitter and a 38% premium over the day before my investment was publicly announced. My offer is my best and final offer and if it is not accepted, I would need to reconsider my position as a shareholder.

“Musk’s ‘best and final’ $43 billion non-binding offer has numerous conditions, including completion of financing, which we believe give it a low probability of success,” Robert Schiffman, a Bloomberg Intelligence senior credit analyst, wrote Thursday in a report.

Twitter is a public company shareholders would have to vote. If Musk dumps his shares he could cook Twitter.

Twitter Executive Board meeting this afternoon…

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In a new Twist to the Twitter Saga - What does it mean - I don’t know…

Vangaurd - who represents ohh 7 trillion or so has been buying up Twitter shares

Snippet of article, " Vanguard Buys TWTR Stock

According to an amended 13G filing, Vanguard now owns 82.40 million shares of TWTR stock, which equates to a 10.29% stake. That’s roughly 12 million shares more — or 17% — than when the firm last reported its stake in the company back in early February. Vanguard is now the largest shareholder of TWTR stock, beating out Elon Musk."

These guys leveraged their Exxon voting power to put climate change activists on the board in 2021. This shit is better than General Hospital.

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Just published Saturday!

Twitter adopted a limited duration shareholder rights plan, often called a “poison pill,” a day after billionaire Elon Musk offered to buy the company for $43 billion, the company announced Friday.

The board voted unanimously to adopt the plan.


Correct me if I’m wrong, but unless Elon or anyone else accumulates more stock (to get to 15% ownership), this plan never takes effect?

Informative take on the situation:


“I’ll give you my answer now, Twitter. My offer is nothing. And you’ll give me full majority control.”

Someone is going to get whacked over this.

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Under the new structure, if any person or group acquires beneficial ownership of at least 15% of Twitter’s outstanding common stock without the board’s approval, other shareholders will be allowed to purchase additional shares at a discount.

The plan is set to expire on April 14, 2023.

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I think twtr’s playing into musk’s hand here with the poison pill thing. It seems highly doubtful that musk was planning on buying the majority of the shares on the open market, as it gets fairly expensive to do that once you start locking up more and more of the float. One thing the pill definitely does accomplish is it gives musk ammo to say that the board is acting in the best interests of management, and not shareholders.

Also, if musk’s plan was to just do a pump and dump (who knows, this could very well be the case), this gives him the perfect out to dump all his shares next week and then say he did it because the board is corrupt.


Reading a lot of articles and watching a lot of videos on this… apparently, if Musk decides to buy shares (on the open market or otherwise), he doesn’t have to report owning over 10% of the company until May 10th or 13th (10 days or 10 business days after the end of the current month…I’m not smart enough to know). He could (theoretically) scoop up enough shares before the reporting deadline to gain a majority stake, without direct knowledge of us peons and keep the price down. I think the Twitter board is a bunch of fuc#tards with their “poison pill” garbage and they know their days are numbered. Personally, I think he’s going to buy the company and I am looking at the 5/20 calls, just in case he decides to report late again like a gangster.


I just noticed that half strikes were added for the May exp’s.