TWTR - will Twitter get the Facebook treatment?

Twitter gets 85% of their revenue from ads. Will they suffer from the Apple tracking restrictions, just as Facebook did?

They have a page for their customers with information on how the changes will impact their information accuracy. In short, yes the accuracy of their tracking will be impacted by apples changes.

From their Q3 report we can see that income is already under pressure(i have removed a one-time effect), with income declining from 52 million in Q1, 30 in Q2 and 24 in Q3 with costs increasing about 10% QoQ. With increasing costs and perhaps a hit from the Apple tracking restrictions, they may be going back into the red.

Options flow is pretty bullish on Twitter.

OI for exp after earnings.

IV is pretty high so i have been looking at a bear call spread, however i don’t get why the market is so bullish on Twitter, what am i missing here? Obv answer is perhaps that it is priced in and with FB it was not.


If I’m not mistaken the primary reason for Facebook’s drop wasn’t their loss of revenue but the fact that their daily user count decreased.

Facebook’s daily userbase also takes into account Facebook(Old people),WhatsApp, Facebook Messenger & Instagram(Young adults, Influencers and weirdos) two of which do not benefit from ads, so the 1.929b figure doesn’t actually represent who is subject to seeing ads, and I suspect that a large majority of that number are just the messaging apps.

I’m pretty sure that twitter is more used by young adults than Facebook nowadays and has a higher average time spent per users so they might have as big of a drop as Facebook

And the option chain being loaded on one side doesn’t really matter, it’s just people guessing, same as you.
Amazon was loaded on the puts and it mooned and Facebook was loaded on the calls and it ripped.


I have to agree with Ticown, FB drop was numerous factors. Yes they talked about how supply chain issues factored to a decrease in advertising spending and also Apple’s ios privacy, but they also talked about how AI and other tech has been compensating from the loss due to privacy.

We also saw Twitter tank from FB, but rocket back up from AMZN… Not really sure how Amazon ties in with Twitter, but if that’s what the market felt then so be it. Pinterest, the website that hasn’t changed in over a decade (and also relies on advertising) saw like an 11% boost.

It’s a proverbial coin toss. Earnings is a huge question mark, forward guidance is a huge question mark. As much as I detest twitter and would love to buy puts, it likely will go up, especially after being beaten down so much.


Dug this and found that weird one time thing is settlement cost for class action lawsuit from back in 2014. The lawsuit alleges

The suit, originally filed by Twitter shareholder Doris Shenwick, claimed executives misled investors over the company’s growth prospects in November 2014, promising an increase in monthly active users to 550 million in the “intermediate” term and more than a billion in the “longer term.” The company failed to deliver on either estimate and concealed that it had no basis for those projections, according to the complaint.

Clearly that hasn’t been the case:

And the Q3 result showed:

Twitter has been downtrending since the Q3 ER. It’s been beaten down so much (-45%), but DAU is still growing (mostly international, I think Twitter has strong presence in Japan, 2nd highest?)

I noted this in the Q3 shareholder letter:

On October 6, 2021, we announced a definitive agreement to sell MoPub to AppLovin
Corporation for $1.05 billion in cash. The sale of MoPub enables us to concentrate more
of our efforts on the significant opportunity for performance-based advertising, SMB
offerings, and commerce initiatives on Twitter. The transaction is expected to close
shortly after the end of 2021, subject to customary closing conditions, including the
receipt of regulatory approval.
MoPub and MoPub Acquire (formerly known as CrossInstall) generated approximately
$188 million in annual revenue in 2020. At the time of the announcement, we
inadvertently stated that the entire $188 million was reported in Data Licensing & Other.
While the significant majority of the $188 million was MoPub exchange-related revenue
reported in Data Licensing and Other, the portion of revenue associated with MoPub
Acquire was reported in total advertising revenue.

This is verified afaik: Twitter completes sale of MoPub to AppLovin for $1.05 billion | TechCrunch
My thought is tentatively bullish as this $1.05 billion is probably going to be in their books in Q4, boosting EPS. net 655m / #share ~= 0.80 eps. Someone please verify this for me because if true then this will show as solid beat on estimated 0.33 eps.

I suspect this won’t surprise as much as AMZN ER, but probably worth considering. Their dau is growing but monetization efforts appear to be struggling. The sale may just outshine their core business but real test is will the market buy the one time eps.


Results dropped this morning. Missed on rev, ad rev, and average DAU. Slightly beat on EPS and announced a share buyback.

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Bit of conversation regarding TWTR from trading floor, compiled it here.
Let me know if doing this is appreciated.


“In December of 2021, we completed the wind down of MoPub Acquire (formerly known as CrossInstall) and on January 1, 2022, we closed the sale of MoPub to AppLovin. Note that full year revenue in 2022 is expected to grow in the 15-20% range, when including MoPub and MoPub Acquire revenue in FY21.” footnoted. probably next Q books will show.

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