$UBT - 2 year bet on FED cutting rates

UBT is a 2x leveraged version of TLT which tracks 20 year treasury bond. If FED begins to cut rates later this year and stick with cutting then a potential gain of 60-100% within 2 years. Any thoughts appreciated.

The risk is if inflation goes hot again then 20 year will get bid above 5%, resulting in a ~50% downside if 20 year reaches 6%.