Ukraine Invasion Plays: XOM, USO, LMT, RSX, CRWD, PANW, IRNT, etc

RSX.xlsx (14.9 KB)
Here is an accurate NAV floor for RSX

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RTX has given some new contracts to TGI (Triumph Group), should be bullish news for both. They’ve both seen lots of rapid growth the last year or two and TGI is sitting at a three year high with RTX at all time high, but the war isn’t getting any better unfortunately. I’m holding one RTX call at the moment, but will be watching TGI for entry (would have been nice if this article was published two day ago before it gapped up 5% though, lol)

#rtx #tgi

Part two of sorts, RTX also won a $91 million deal from the Naval Sea Systems Command to produce dual band radar systems. I’m guessing (guessing) this could be from that White House meeting, though the timeline is kind of accelerated there, that just happened. Still, more bullish news for RTX, I’m wondering if it isn’t time to start a thread for it outside of this one…both articles mention analysts giving these tickers good long term growth outlooks

I’m worried about opening positions in RTX and LMT since they’re both seeing ATHs. They absolutely seem to be doing great and getting contracts and the Ukraine war has been a major boon for them, but I struggle to justify opening something let alone any company at an ATH

I mean, buy into strength, right? Unfortunately the war and need for their tech is the play…I absolutely agree do not just buy in tomorrow though, it’s at a key level on the daily, a rejection is possible and maybe probable, everything eventually cools off and pulls back a bit (I’m gonna try to catch that sell and buy back in, hopefully don’t get burned)… I’ll be watching the charts on this one pretty hard for sure, but all this news it gets is just reacted to bullishly as hell. I’m hoping for more news before market opens or after close Monday

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In the last 1.5 months, DBC has continued its rise and has now crossed the levels from the panic spike after the Russian invasion. Is at ~$28 now, $3 up since. Because IV is so low (~32%), has made for a nice LEAPS play so far. Still holding; exit condition is when commodities finally start to cool. Difficult to say when that will be though.

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Wasn’t really sure where to drop this tidbit of information.

Electrical services, which account for 10% of the country’s total consumption, were discontinued “for the time being” at 1 a.m. local time, Finnish grid operator Fingrid said, according to the report.

“Missing imports can be replaced in the electricity market by importing more electricity from Sweden and also by domestic production,” the company added, Reuters reported.

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LEAPs hit their $6 limit sell, position closed at ~65% profit 3 months after open.

May initiate position again when prices revert to the trendline, and start a thread for this alone next time.

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Great job, bud! Congrats on those gains!
I would have joined you if the ticker symbol was DBZ.

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65% in 3 month is still incredible return.

One of the things everyone has to remember is to REMEMBER the great DD we all contributed to in the past. If I would have followed my own thoughts from the invasion time I could have made tens of dollars at least. Keep track of your plays and catalysts, you are probably onto something.

https://www.agcs.allianz.com/news-and-insights/expert-risk-articles/insurance-impact-ukraine-war.html

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Great point, this happens too often for me (not that I had the great idea to begin with but to remember to follow up on said theory in a month or two) do we have a !RemindMe in 2 months feature here on the forum?

Those three little dots next to the Heart/React and Share buttons have a little bookmark you can set to alert on custom time/date, nice little feature I had been using more often. Actually that’s why I’m currently online for a few, checking out the bigger threads I have some notifications set for, seeing how the week’s ending out etc @DankeDeNada

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Russia defaulted on their foreign debt. What could this mean for the US?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-26/russia-defaults-on-foreign-debt-for-first-time-since-1918

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Feel like this is priced in at the moment and probably hurts Russia more in the long term. I would see these defaults to get thrown into a larger deal/“treaty” if/when we get there with the current war.

Thank you @Labubs !!! Using this now!

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Apparently criminal gangs are smuggling the aid sent to Ukraine over to the EU

“All these weapons land in southern Poland, get shipped to the border and are just divided up into vehicles,” said a western official. “And from that moment we go blank on their location and we have no idea where they go, where they are used or even if they stay in the country”

https://twitter.com/HenryJFoy/status/1546898270093467651

Stickin’ it to Putin !

https://twitter.com/GazpromEN/status/1547224254520999938

Higher chance that Nordstream 1 will not restart after July 21st, could be a catalyst for a puts play on Germany (DAX/EWG) or broader Europe.

I’ve been following this and it seems like an interesting swing for UNG or OXY

Dax down -2,5%, EWG down -3%, good time to take profit / cover some of your cost basis if you are in the play.

Russian Market didn’t like the mobilization theme being brewed

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