Victory Day in Russia, the most significant date in the nation’s political-military calendar, the anniversary of the Soviet Union’s triumph over Germany in the Second World War, and traditionally the occasion for a massive pageant of military muscle through Moscow’s Red Square.
This could mean escalated aggression in Ukraine in the next three weeks to achieve some kind of conclusion that Putin can call a “victory” by May 9.
Recall that the next FOMC meetings are on May 3 and May 4.
Seems like there’s a lot of uncertainty leading into the early days of May, and could mean a rocky April despite statistically green Aprils.
USA has given Ukraine 7,000 Javelin ATGMs in recent months, about 1/3 of the American stock, which will take about one year to replenish. 2,000 Stingers, 1/4 of the U.S. inventory, expected to take about five years to restock.
As @TheMadBeaker says, javelins are manufactured jointly between Raytheon and Lockheed Martin
The Pentagon will host leaders from the top eight U.S. weapons manufacturers on Wednesday to discuss the industry’s capacity to meet Ukraine’s weapons needs if the war with Russia lasts years, two people familiar with the meeting said on Tuesday.
wtf 2 years!
The Pentagon has said that the most useful weapons are smaller systems such as Javelin anti-tank missiles and Stinger anti-aircraft missiles, which Washington and allies have been shipping to Ukraine on a nearly daily basis.
Admittedly I joined $LMT gang today and took a 470c for next Friday, hoping that some bullish news arises out of this Wednesday meeting.
From the sounds of it, LMT and RTX are starting to look like boomer plays to me rather than short term scalps/swings. Long term holds might be a good idea! Sounds like they will be busy for years to come.
I think the actual quantities of the weapons used directly in the current war aren’t that important especially if they reach a stalemate stage where neither side can really advance on each other. (And it seems like it’s reaching that point soon)
What will really drive defense spending is countries will want to stockpile more weapons / jets / equipment / etc due to the fear that the conflict will get bigger. Stockpiles of this stuff are like an order of magnitude higher than the amounts actually used up in any conflict…
FWIW my friends/family in Czechia and Poland say everyone agrees Russia is coming unless Putin gets plutonium cookies and someone more reasonable is installed. It is not just Ukraine. He says he wants to restore Imperial Russia. This is no secret. He allies with Russian Orthodox Church and the remnant imperial family- two institutions that gave scaffolding to resistance in USSR- very hard for resistance to get a foothold.
Impossible to say how long it will go on, too many variables. But it can and will spread until Putin is stopped. I am mostly investing for very short term but longer term I am thinking which contractors succeed whether it ends sooner or later? Who can ramp up production fastest? It’s really a heartbreak but it is terrible either way so better to make money if we can.
LMT’s been tracking up the last several days and looks like it may be primed for a breakout, on a chart perspective. There was also news of US increasing defence budget by $800M today. However, there is earnings next Tuesday premarket.
RTX has given some new contracts to TGI (Triumph Group), should be bullish news for both. They’ve both seen lots of rapid growth the last year or two and TGI is sitting at a three year high with RTX at all time high, but the war isn’t getting any better unfortunately. I’m holding one RTX call at the moment, but will be watching TGI for entry (would have been nice if this article was published two day ago before it gapped up 5% though, lol)
Part two of sorts, RTX also won a $91 million deal from the Naval Sea Systems Command to produce dual band radar systems. I’m guessing (guessing) this could be from that White House meeting, though the timeline is kind of accelerated there, that just happened. Still, more bullish news for RTX, I’m wondering if it isn’t time to start a thread for it outside of this one…both articles mention analysts giving these tickers good long term growth outlooks
I’m worried about opening positions in RTX and LMT since they’re both seeing ATHs. They absolutely seem to be doing great and getting contracts and the Ukraine war has been a major boon for them, but I struggle to justify opening something let alone any company at an ATH
I mean, buy into strength, right? Unfortunately the war and need for their tech is the play…I absolutely agree do not just buy in tomorrow though, it’s at a key level on the daily, a rejection is possible and maybe probable, everything eventually cools off and pulls back a bit (I’m gonna try to catch that sell and buy back in, hopefully don’t get burned)… I’ll be watching the charts on this one pretty hard for sure, but all this news it gets is just reacted to bullishly as hell. I’m hoping for more news before market opens or after close Monday
In the last 1.5 months, DBC has continued its rise and has now crossed the levels from the panic spike after the Russian invasion. Is at ~$28 now, $3 up since. Because IV is so low (~32%), has made for a nice LEAPS play so far. Still holding; exit condition is when commodities finally start to cool. Difficult to say when that will be though.
Wasn’t really sure where to drop this tidbit of information.
Electrical services, which account for 10% of the country’s total consumption, were discontinued “for the time being” at 1 a.m. local time, Finnish grid operator Fingrid said, according to the report.
“Missing imports can be replaced in the electricity market by importing more electricity from Sweden and also by domestic production,” the company added, Reuters reported.
