Thanks for this, it was very insightful. I fear we may see Russia deploy chemical weapons next, given recent warnings by the US and NATO. Putin is backed into a corner, has little left to lose, and has demonstrated that he doesnt care how many Ukrainians/Russians will die. I think we’ve already seen some of this: once the main Russian offensive started to stall, they began bombing civilian targets.
I agree that the situation is likely to get much worse before it gets better.
After that strong reaction to the invasion at the end of Feb, DBC seems to have come down to the support trendline and solidly bounced off of it. To the extent that most of the commodities in this basket can be expected to be more expensive in the future, expecting this trendline to hold for a bit.
SCO is an inverse crude ETF and I like the upside potential at these levels. April $6C are around .50 - I may look to take a starter here, looking for an oil reversal sometime in the next few weeks.
This ticker tends to offer smooth but quick movements up and down and I’ll look to exit quickly if I see it running.
I took an SCO call because I made some money with it last time oil dropped, and I agree we could see a pullback.
Fertilizer keeps being brought up in the news now & then. I think as we enter spring it’s going to become more of a topic as farmers start planting.
Thanks Beaker… here is link for Wheat based on US Wheat Associates. They compile some of this data weekly. Outside of graphs and pictures, the bullet points seem good for guidance in the wheat arena
With the potential re-open of Russian Market, and additional sanctions being brought against Russia by different nations, I will be looking to find an entry into some $BLK puts for volatility. I am unsure what impact Russian market opening will have on other ETF companies as well. Just sharing my thoughts
US declaring Russia has committed war crimes is an important development in the European situation. Historically, NATO and the United States have acted as a police-force to pacify conflict. See: Iraq, Afghanistan, Bosnia, Kosovo. This news in conjunction with the call-up of AD and Reserve units (with an emphasis on CBRN units) to support NATO forces on Eastern European border, defense manufactures and oil related stocks should still be on the table. I know for a fact Raytheon is currently working overtime in multiple plants to fulfill the increased demand in rockets. We might want to even look at companies that specialize in Chemical, Biological, Radioactive, and Nuclear (CBRN) defense and technology.
This still doesn’t mean the United States is going to a commit to a war anytime soon. Any action NATO is taking is currently still a precaution due to the “unpredictive” nature of the Russian/Putin forces. So don’t worry no bags, you’re not being drafted.
Poonisher and Little Bear can more than likely expand on what I have wrote, just wanted to drop a note for the forum.
NATO Doubling Deployed Troop Numbers, Sending Them to Eastern Europe (msn.com)
U.S. Declares Russia Has Committed War Crimes In Ukraine (msn.com)
I could see “Gas Mask” companies who ever they are being an easy target since they are cheap easy to deploy and make for good images - to show we are helping.
Just to piggy back off this, it appears foreign investors won’t be able to trade. See below for Thursday. That said I would still be thinking a sentimental pop of watching MOEX crumble will be felt by ETFs etc as they will watch but not be able to play. And I would assume that is all foreign investors to include china etc.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/russian-stock-market-prepares-for-an-unusual-reopening-11648023739
Two that come to mind for those kinds of companies are Avon and MSA. MSA trades with pretty much no volume so i wouldn’t touch it. Avon actually produces all of the masks that the military uses, and would be a good candidate…but it doesn’t have options and is trading at $1000+ a share.
Im going to go though some defense contracts tonight to look at some chemical defense companies that look decent.
Appreciate you looking those two up - agree’ed neither one is very attractive
To add to what the homie has reported.
Yes, NATO historically plays world police when war crimes are mentioned. So what does this mean exactly?
Well, for this particular set of circumstances, recent developments have included the following:
US saying they will increase sanctions on Russia.
Poland is formally requesting NATO to do a “Peacekeeping Mission” in Ukraine for support. That’s fancy speak for let’s run up in there and cause problems but say it’s for support.
This has been flying under the radar, as it’s not well known the magnitude of what could come from that. For starters, this entire conflict has been brewing for a long time and there has been preparations made for years. For instance, US military, mainly army and national guard, have been deploying and conducting numerous exercises in Poland the last several years. Currently, most conventional US forces are mostly stationed in Poland. This includes MOS (jobs) centered specifically around combat casualty care (specifically a large number of combat medics), CBRN which means Chemical, Biological, Radiological,and Nuclear specialists, and full blown trigger pullers such as the 82nd airborne. For an idea of scale, there’s currently more 82nd airborne in Poland than was used during the invasion of Iraq, in which they played a big role. So, in short, we got a fuck ton of serious people in Poland, and Poland is getting a little too comfortable with this power. More on Poland later.
The nuclear talks have suddenly increased drastically. Over the last couple days nuclear fears have grown due to repeated mentions by Russia that they would use them if they felt threatened enough. I don’t know exactly what else has been said from an intelligence standpoint, but something was said and it’s being taken serious due to the sudden shipment of CBRN.
Today, it was announced that the US has confirmed war crimes via intelligence in addition to various viral incidents. This denotes that they are taking this more seriously than just making media claims, if intelligence has reported it you can consider that official as fuck. that’s not TikTok shit. They are claiming blatant targeting of innocents and children and hospitals and churches and schools. One article mentioned the “legal” ramifications of that but let’s be real, NATO has always handled this a little more violently. NATO suddenly finding a loud voice in this matter leads me to believe they will get involved sooner than later.
So, how will this effect the markets? Well if this gains traction news wise, which it likely will given the speed at which its been circulating, I think we can expect volatility at if not beyond what we observed at the public onset of this conflict. The conflict as it currently stands is largely “priced in” imo and that was confirmed to me be spy’s recent rally as defense and oil dropped. This will likely be the last big conflict related event short of NATO publicly pulling triggers that could bearishly effect SPY.
That being said, defense stocks have gotten memey at this point and most are honestly still too overvalued. I think sentiment and fomo likely won’t be what it was, but scalps on Defense may be ok the table. As far as tickers I will watch more closely, I’m still in MAXR, for overall value I like RTX, for imo a highly used sleeping giant I like LHX. LMT has become the Tesla of the sector and I’d use extreme caution there.
Cybersecurity sector usual players may see sentiment.
What we need to find and research is Poland. They’ve taken in a ton of US military and Refugees. Thats going to have an economic effect in top of the ones already present from having a war next door. There’s gotta be some Poland related stocks or ETFs or commodities we can look into. Go to work retards.
Just some thoughts, don’t yolo shit obviously.
Gonna drop this here and hopefully elaborate further when I get time.
I’m monitoring AVAV too. It’s been on a hell of a run since conflict started but is one of the few defense sector stocks that still has room for further running imo. It gets low volume so not necessarily good for scalps, but if you like to do medium to longer term share holding stuff there’s room for upside.
A summarized reason is it’s been highly publicized that we are sending drone to Ukraine. They are not the drones everyone typically thinks about, they are Switchblade “kamikaze” drones. These are exclusively made by AVAV, are/can be easily mass produced by nature of use, and ideal for this type of conflict.
One ticker to look at is $USFD
Us foods
Biden talking about more sanctions and a food shortage could send this thing ripping. Busy right now but just throwing the ticker out there.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/24/politics/ukraine-us-request-javelin-stinger-missiles/index.html
The Ukrainians have submitted similar lists in recent weeks but a recent request provided to US lawmakers appears to reflect a growing need for American-made Stinger anti-aircraft missiles and Javelin anti-tank missiles – with Ukraine saying it urgently needs 500 of each, daily
One of the tickers I mentioned, L3Harris (LHX) just received a price target of $295, it currently trading at $258. One to watch for sure now.
Going to post the screenshots from the briefing posted on the Russian military site mentioned/referenced here-
WHEAT - Futures & ETFs Discussion - #14 by khalidad cross posting here - if this works as i’m hoping. It looks like, on TDA certain futures are set to closing only, including wheat and oil.
This set off a notification for me @khalidad, thank you for spreading this around; it’s super interesting, and some pretty big plays could come from playing the correlated tickers correctly. Went to the main thread with it, some good DD already coming from this 
