Ticker: <$UPS>
Description of why you are requesting DD: <earnings 2/1>
Applicable links to news articles or Reddit analysis:
I am currently employees by UPS and I do know we had a GREAT Q4. I bought a call on Friday for 202.5 and it is up 50% already.
uPS as been mirroring spy for the most part on this bear run but on Friday EOD it seemed to start trending up faster than spy.
In my opinion it should go back above 210 easily because of the earnings and UPS has done a fantastic job automating the hiring process which should increase revenue moving forward.
I do not believe the working conditions are the best but the profit should be very good.
If someone could look at the technicals of the stock and give their opinion I would appreciate
Interesting! This morning I was thinking about putting in some research on UPS but figured I’d check the forum first to see if it’s been talked about. I live in Canada, and while BC in particular is a tiny area that UPS covers, there were major delays/problems due to extreme weather. I’m curious if there were many other areas that became problematic for shipping via UPS. If anyone has any input I’d love to hear it!
I understand for sure! While weather is unavoidable, it surely has an impact on revenue depending on the severity. I know that everything DID get delivered, the departure lots were completely packed and backed up!
Don’t forget that guidance is very important as well.
The “might” killed/crushed it in Q4 in terms of earnings to you, but future guidance might be a big factor as well to take into account. Some data that might be useful for this stock: U.S. Retail Sales
What is noticeable to me is that from January to April 2021 there was a big uptick in “U.S. retail sales”, which might have attributed to UPS also doing well that quarter. On earnings in April 27 you can see the uptick. However the numbers aren’t looking as strong afterwards.
Based on the data from trading economics on increase of retail sales in 2021
Q1: 16% → UPS earnings did very well, went on a rally with a total gain of 23%, touched 10% day after
Q2: 0.4% → Went down
Q3: 0.3% → Went up 8%, beat earnings, good guidance
Q4: 0.1% → …?
In addition to the data of retail sales, this article outlines last quarter (December retail sales):
To my understanding the forecasts* for 2022 doesn’t really seem to be that great.
For December they had a forecast of 0.3% but in reality it was -1.9%. The forecast for January is 0.2%.
This is one aspect of it though, but I personally think it weighs a bit.
On my side in our… specific center the volume has not decreased at all since the onset of the pandemic. I was biased to the fact of retail sales decreasing.
How do you feel about the sale of UPS Freight to T-Force? UPS Management tried to spin in as “right-sizing” and focusing on their core, but FedEx and DHL have only grown their FTL/LTL Freight footprint in the meantime and FTL/LTL has been printing cash in the pandemic.
We’re almost a year past it now, but I took it as a bearish sign of trouble because UPS essentially gave control of its name and rep to another firm which is something I know they really don’t like to do.
The sale of UPS freight was all around a good move for UPS. They made a billion off the sale and reduced costs substantially. Money isn’t in the largest packages its in the volume of the smalls. With Carols build better not bigger plan it fits perfect. Basically no matter what is happening at ups the maximum amount of packages they ship a day worldwide are 39 million. If UPS really wanted too they could take up contracts with companies like Amazon for millions of more packages. Which Amazon would do it in a heartbeat. It’s important to note that about 30% of UPS volume comes from Amazon. The point thou is that UPS makes more money based on the % of smalls volume that 39 million is made up of. The all around logistics and efficiencies of this method is far cheaper and easier. So basically saying, UPS selling their freight division has little to no negative effect. They still ship irregular packages ( packages over 70+ pounds) but they don’t involve themselves in extremely large packages which overall saves the company money.
Good be another Covid boom stock. Revenue great while people were at home ordering online all the time. But inflationary times for 2022 causing tighter budgets in homes, and the possible supply chain issues causing demand not to be met could severely impact them with their future guidance due to less product to deliver. I’d be careful with this one. Numbers do matter, but not as much as the outlook of maintaining that revenue in the future can matter.