Valhalla’s Most Anticipated Earnings / July 18th 2022

Research & Analysis Earnings
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VALHALLA EARNINGS july 18
VALHALLA EARNINGS july 181920×1357 270 KB

Disclaimer: For this week I’ve removed the few sentences on institutional buyers/sellers. I had been using yahoo finance to collect those numbers but for some reason, there seems to be no transactions after the 31st of march 2022 displayed. I’ll try to find another way to find those numbers for next week, if you have any idea on how to do it (easily), please do share :pepepray: .

[color=#d4a218]International Business Machines Corp., ($IBM)[/color]
International Business Machines Corp., ($IBM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:10 PM EST on Monday 18th. The consensus estimate by the Earnings Whisper is for $2.28 per share on a revenue of $15.25 billion. IBM reported 1st Quarter March 2022 earnings of $1.40 per share on revenue of $14.2 billion. Revenue fell 19.9% on a year-over-year basis. Investor sentiment going into the company’s earnings release has 46% expecting an earnings beat. Short interest has decreased by 19% since the company’s last earnings release while the stock has drifted higer by 11.58% from its open following the earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 5.8% move on earnings.

[color=#d4a218]Johnson & Johnson, ($JNJ)[/color]
Johnson & Johnson, ($JNJ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:25 AM EST on Tuesday 19th. The consensus estimate by the Earnings Whisper is for $2.59 per share on a revenue of $23.87 billion. JNJ reported 1st Quarter March 2022 earnings of $2.67 per share on revenue of $23.4 billion. Revenue grew 5.0% on a year-over-year basis. Investor sentiment going into the company’s earnings release has 43% expecting an earnings beat. Short interest has increased by 2% since the company’s last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 0.83% from its open following the earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 3.6% move on earnings.

[color=#d4a218]Netflix, Inc., ($NFLX)[/color]
Netflix, Inc., ($NFLX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM EST on Tuesday 19th. The consensus estimate by the Earnings Whisper is for $2.91 per share on a revenue of $8.06 billion. NFLX reported 1st Quarter March 2022 earnings of $3.53 per share on revenue of $7.9 billion. Revenue grew 9.8% on a year-over-year basis. Investor sentiment going into the company’s earnings release has 50% expecting an earnings beat. Short interest has decreased by 54% since the company’s last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 48.46% from its open following the earnings release.
Option traders are pricing in a 14.8% move on earnings.

[color=#d4a218]Tesla, Inc., ($TSLA)[/color]
Tesla, Inc., ($TSLA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:10 PM EST on Wednesday 20th. The consensus estimate by the Earnings Whisper is for $1.76 per share on a revenue of $18.26 billion. TSLA reported 1st Quarter March 2022 earnings of $3.49 per share on revenue of $18.8 billion. Revenue grew 80.5% on a year-over-year basis. Investor sentiment going into the company’s earnings release has 24% expecting an earnings beat. Short interest has decreased by 14% since the company’s last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 27.96% from its open following the earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 11.0% move on earnings.

[color=#d4a218]United Airlines, ($UAL)[/color]
United Airlines, ($UAL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:30 PM EST on Wednesday 20th. The consensus estimate by the Earnings Whisper is for $1.77 per share on a revenue of $11.59 billion. UAL reported a 1st Quarter March 2022 loss of $4.24 per share on revenue of $7.6 billion. Revenue grew 134.9% on a year-over-year basis. Investor sentiment going into the company’s earnings release has 67% expecting an earnings beat. Short interest has increased by 43% since the company’s last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 16.62% from its open following the earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 10.7% move on earnings.

[color=#d4a218]AT&T Corp., ($T)[/color]
AT&T Corp., ($T) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM EST on Thursday 21st. The consensus estimate by the Earnings Whisper is for $0.60 per share on a revenue of $29.52 billion. T reported 1st Quarter March 2022 earnings of $0.77 per share on revenue of $38.1 billion. Revenue fell 13.3% on a year-over-year basis. Investor sentiment going into the company’s earnings release has 42% expecting an earnings beat. Short interest has decreased by 14% since the company’s last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 5.62% from its open following the earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 5.6% move on earnings.

[color=#d4a218]Philip Morris International Inc, ($PM)[/color]
Philip Morris International Inc, ($PM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM EST on Thursday 21st. The consensus estimate by the Earnings Whisper is for $1.23 per share on a revenue of $6.65 billion. PM reported 1st Quarter March 2022 earnings of $1.56 per share on revenue of $19.3 billion. Revenue fell 0.1% on a year-over-year basis. Investor sentiment going into the company’s earnings release has 38% expecting an earnings beat. Short interest has decreased by 36% since the company’s last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 7.22% from its open following the earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 4.4% move on earnings.

[color=#d4a218]Nucor Corp., ($NUE)[/color]
Nucor Corp., ($NUE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:00 AM EST on Thursday 21st. The consensus estimate by the Earnings Whisper is for $8.80 per share on a revenue of $11.78 billion. NUE reported 1st Quarter March 2022 earnings of $7.67 per share on revenue of $10.5 billion. Revenue grew 49.5% on a year-over-year basis. Investor sentiment going into the company’s earnings release has 64% expecting an earnings beat. Short interest has decreased by 16% since the company’s last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 31.42% from its open following the earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 7.9% move on earnings.

[color=#d4a218]Snap Inc., ($SNAP)[/color]
Snap Inc., ($SNAP) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:10 PM EST on Thursday 21st. The consensus estimate by the Earnings Whisper is for ($0.01) per share on a revenue of $1.22 billion. SNAP reported a 1st Quarter March 2022 loss of $0.04 per share on revenue of $1.1 billion. Revenue grew 38.1% on a year-over-year basis. Investor sentiment going into the company’s earnings release has 39% expecting an earnings beat. Short interest has decreased by 70% since the company’s last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 59.13% from its open following the earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 21.0% move on earnings.

[color=#d4a218]Verizon Communications, ($VZ)[/color]
Verizon Communications, ($VZ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM EST on Friday 21st. The consensus estimate by the Earnings Whisper is for $1.34 per share on a revenue of $33.78 billion. VZ reported 1st Quarter March 2022 earnings of $1.35 per share on revenue of $33.6 billion. Revenue grew 2.1% on a year-over-year basis. Investor sentiment going into the company’s earnings release has 60% expecting an earnings beat. Short interest has decreased by 40% since the company’s last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 6.31% from its open following the earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 3.4% move on earnings.

[color=#d4a218]American Express Co., ($AXP)[/color]
American Express Co., ($AXP) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM EST on Friday 21st. The consensus estimate by the Earnings Whisper is for $2.38 per share on a revenue of $12.43 billion. AXP reported 1st Quarter March 2022 earnings of $2.73 per share on revenue of $11.7 billion. Revenue grew 29.5% on a year-over-year basis. Investor sentiment going into the company’s earnings release has 66% expecting an earnings beat. Short interest has decreased by 35% since the company’s last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 20.83% from its open following the earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 6.1% move on earnings.

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[size=4]NFLX DD (Tuesday 19th)[/size]

Similarly to FB in their last quarters, NFLX dropped in price after their last earnings (Apr 2022) release due to losing subscribers for the first time in 10 years.

To sum up the reasons why they lost clients:

  • They had a huge increase in subscribers at the beginning of Covid, but this group eventually went back to work and had less time to watch their content
  • A slowdown in the number of new shows due to production shutting down during Covid
  • Hike in price in Jan 2022
  • Exiting the Russian market
  • More competition : Hulu, Disney+ etc…
  • Password sharing
    Source : 8 Reasons Why Netflix Is Losing Subscribers

Question is : Does this still stand for next earnings (bearish), or has the issue been solved (bullish or neutral). And, is it already priced in?

[size=4]Is it priced in?[/size]

First of all, NFLX fell -39% after their last earnings release and is now sitting at another -19.5% from there.
In the same time period, SPY has moved -15.0%

So at best, stock traders are pricing in that NFLX deserves to have gone down more than SPY in the same time period.

There is no way to tell exactly where the ~5% difference comes from, but if because of bad earnings NFLX was due to go down 5%, this could act as a buffer for algos and the bad news would likely be considered as priced in.

In comparison option traders are pricing in a 14.8% move on earnings (on either side).
(although, when doing the calculation for the implied movement, calls were more expensive).

[size=4]What have they done to fix the issue?[/size]

TLDR: From what I’m seeing, Nothing

Their ER Growth outlook paragraphs noted three key issues

Broadband availability in houses (out of their control)
Password sharing
Competition

Password Sharing:
I have not been able to find any article or update from Netflix themselves that showcased a change in policy regarding the sharing of accounts.

Competition:
There have been a lot of releases in the last quarter but the only big hit exclusive release from Netflix that I could find was Strangers Things Season 4 Part 1-2, which pales in comparison to the other content providers. (Obviously I am only familiar with Western releases, maybe a banger Korean show dropped but I wouldn’t know about that)

Bearish information I could find

Bullish information I could find

  • Yahoo is part of the Yahoo family of brands

  • Yahoo is part of the Yahoo family of brands
    Important that they are not imposing ads on existing customers, this could potentially allow an inflow of new clients. Also, brands will 100% jump on the opportunity to use the platform to run ads. Bullish

  • Americans 50 and Over Accounted for Greatest Increase in Time Spent Streaming in May, Compared With May 2021, Nielsen Data Says – WSJ
    People 50 and Over Accounted for 39% of Streaming Watch Time as of May, Outpacing Growth of Other Demographic Groups, Nielsen Data Says $DIS
    Source : Twitter @Deltaone

[size=4]Final TLDR:[/size]

If you are looking to play shares on this for long term, I would wait a little more, the company is sitting at a crucial point right now and depending on how they handle the implementation of ads onto their platform, It could go brilliant or terrible. Keep watching closely and wait for new info on that before buying.

For options, you have the info above, make your own decision

I will 100% edit this post if I have more Bullish/Bearish info I want to add until earnings

Good luck

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