Valhalla’s Most Anticipated Earnings / November 28th 2022

Research & Analysis
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VALHALLA EARNINGS nov 28th
VALHALLA EARNINGS nov 28th1920×1357 214 KB

[color=#d4a218]Hewlett Packard Enterprise, ($HPE)[/color]
Hewlett Packard Enterprise, ($HPE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM EST on Tuesday 29th. The consensus estimate by the Earnings Whisper is for $0.39 per share on a revenue of $7.46 billion. HPE reported 3rd Quarter July 2022 earnings of $0.53 per share on revenue of $7.0 billion. Revenue grew 0.8% on a year-over-year basis. Investor sentiment going into the company’s earnings release has 53% expecting an earnings beat. Short interest is considered to be healthy with 2.01% of the float being sold short. The stock has drifted higher by 4.37% from its open following the earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 6.7% move on earnings.

[color=#d4a218]Hormel Foods Corp., ($HRL)[/color]
Hormel Foods Corp., ($HRL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM EST on Wednesday 30th. The consensus estimate by the Earnings Whisper is for $0.50 per share on a revenue of $3.38 billion. HRL reported 3rd Quarter July 2022 earnings of $0.40 per share on revenue of $3.0 billion. Revenue grew 6.0% on a year-over-year basis. Investor sentiment going into the company’s earnings release has 47% expecting an earnings beat. Short interest is considered to be healthy with 3.43% of the float being sold short. The stock has drifted lower by 3.64% from its open following the earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 3.8% move on earnings.

[color=#d4a218]Petco Health and Wellness Company, Inc., ($WOOF)[/color]
Petco Health and Wellness Company, Inc., ($WOOF) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM EST on Wednesday 30th. The consensus estimate by the Earnings Whisper is for $0.13 per share on a revenue of $1.49 billion. WOOF reported 2nd Quarter July 2022 earnings of $0.17 per share on revenue of $1.5 billion. Revenue grew 3.2% on a year-over-year basis. Investor sentiment going into the company’s earnings release has 52% expecting an earnings beat. Short interest is considered to be unhealthy with 11.74% of the float being sold short. The stock has drifted lower by 41.37% from its open following the earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 10.8% move on earnings.

[color=#d4a218]XPeng Inc., ($XPEV)[/color]
XPeng Inc., ($XPEV) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM EST on Wednesday 30th. The consensus estimate by the Earnings Whisper is for ($0.46) per share on a revenue of $1.10 billion. XPEV reported a 2nd Quarter June 2022 loss of $0.47 per share on revenue of $1.1 billion. Revenue grew 90.6% on a year-over-year basis. Investor sentiment going into the company’s earnings release has 46% expecting an earnings beat. Short interest is considered to be healthy with 4.61% of the float being sold short. The stock has drifted lower by 63.47% from its open following the earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 16.7% move on earnings.

[color=#d4a218]Salesforce, ($CRM)[/color]
Salesforce, ($CRM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM EST on Wednesday 30th. The consensus estimate by the Earnings Whisper is for $1.21 per share on a revenue of $7.87 billion. CRM reported 2nd Quarter July 2022 earnings of $1.17 per share on revenue of $7.7 billion. Revenue grew 21.8% on a year-over-year basis. Investor sentiment going into the company’s earnings release has 58% expecting an earnings beat. Short interest is considered to be healthy with 1.04% of the float being sold short. The stock has drifted lower by 19.44% from its open following the earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 7.5% move on earnings.

[color=#d4a218]Kroger Co., ($KR)[/color]
Kroger Co., ($KR) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:20 AM EST on Thursday 1st. The consensus estimate by the Earnings Whisper is for $0.80 per share on a revenue of $34.00 billion. KR reported 2nd Quarter July 2022 earnings of $0.90 per share on revenue of $34.6 billion. Revenue grew 9.3% on a year-over-year basis. Investor sentiment going into the company’s earnings release has 77% expecting an earnings beat. Short interest is considered to be healthy with 2.22% of the float being sold short. The stock has drifted lower by 2.93% from its open following the earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 5.7% move on earnings.

[color=#d4a218]Dollar General Corporation, ($DG)[/color]
Dollar General Corporation, ($DG) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM EST on Thursday 1st. The consensus estimate by the Earnings Whisper is for $2.55 per share on a revenue of $9.42 billion. DG reported 2nd Quarter July 2022 earnings of $2.98 per share on revenue of $9.4 billion. Revenue grew 9.0% on a year-over-year basis. Investor sentiment going into the company’s earnings release has 87% expecting an earnings beat. Short interest is considered to be healthy with 1.76% of the float being sold short. The stock has drifted higher by 1.51% from its open following the earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 5.5% move on earnings.

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Starting to get ready for plays. Might be tough day with all market data and JPOW speech tomorrow.
Look at WDAY and compare it to CRWD. They both were at same price about at market close, but WDAY EPS .99 vs CRWD .40 sales on WDAY were double around 1.6 bill too. WDAY also doing 500mill share buyback. Lets get this thread moving.

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Update: CRWD- could go either way. Too much of a drop imo. If play puts, will need to see it push up to 120/125/130.Could be a calls recovery play. Need to read more.
INTU same if play puts - Need to see push up to 375/377/380 before entering puts.
WDAY prob my top watch/play for calls. 145/147/148/150 bounce for calls.
Will be nice to see how all this reacts to pre market numbers. Will update again in the am.

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You beat me too this finally had some big ones report since little break for the holiday.

WDAY is my top watch with the beat and share buyback announced. Will keep an eye on PTs in the morning. They have largely been beat down and trading below May 2020 levels. This is a lot of correction for these guys meaning market isn’t at May 2020 levels so now they are starting to hit actual realistic valuations. Similar to ADSK. I like this play a lot.

CRWD like JB mentioned had huge drop and currently at 52 week low. Probably unwarranted drop. Maybe recovery play. Sitting near 2020 levels. As well

INTU is tough one. Likely will avoid it. Guidance lowered but not a ton. And had a pretty damn decent beat. Down a lot already for the year. Likely will depend on market moves here.

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Update: WDAY prob my top watch/play for calls. 148/150/152 bounce for calls.
CRWD- could go either way. Too much of a drop imo. If play puts, will need to see it push up to 120/125/130.Could be a calls recovery play. Price Targets high still. Maybe calls for bounce off 110, but I am avoiding this one.
INTU price targets are very high still. Prob now calls for bounce at 365/370, this one not sure on.
WDAY prob my top watch/play for calls. 148/150/152 bounce for calls.
WOOF calls at 10/10.25 bounce.
Will be nice to see how all this reacts to pre market numbers.

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We got a big day coming tomorrow with OKTA CRM FIVE already in and DG KR in the morning going to be lots of choices

OKTA is my favorite so far. Was one of my better plays this year last ER to downside. This time they had big time beat and upped guidance. Plus it’s been largely beat down since last print.

CRM interesting one had a beat but Co-CEO stepping down they did have their best EPS quarter this year. But seems the CEO news had big impact. They are down a lot form their highs.

FIVE doubled up their EPS upped guidance and gave really positive outlook. Like this one as well.

SNOW also posted had a beat initially dropped 13ish percent and recovered about 8 of that. One to keep and eye on for recovery although their guidance was soft. Cloud companies have seemingly struggled and slowed.

Will update after mornings ER. But right now OKTA and FIVE are the two favorites for me. Especially if market continues to rally. If we get a sell off CRM could continue its slide on CEO news

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SNOW has almost recovered all the way from drop.

OKTA still running. Top of my list. But PTs 80-90 and some lowered to there.

SPLK had major beat woo around. I never even looked at this til Conq posted chart at midnight. This was really strong print PTs coming in 90-110. I like this one a lot too.

FIVE also still top watch. Got all PT upgrades to 188-204.

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the thing that sucks is everything is so pumped from market that its hard to find a good buy in on these. They are much higher than normal and Price Targets are not much higher on the ones that did well… FIVE and KR might be favorite.
Calls for all below:
Maybe KR bounce at 50/49.50
FIVE bounce at 170/168
DLTR 144/145 bounce
OKTA 58/60
DG 232/235 support bounce for calls

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So far thinking SMAR 33/34/35 "(will change tomorrow) bounce calls, PATH 13.25/13.50 bounce calls, The calls are Dec 16th for SMAR and PATH as they don’t have FDs so may be a bit safer play for tomorrow. puts MRVL 44/45 rejection.

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PATH could be no brainer with beat guidance upped and been hammered down all year.

SMAR had a major beat and best quarter of the year.

I’ll also be watching ULTA problem here is it’s so expensive and been up all year but upped guidance and had big beat. Will see how it looks in morning and PTs for all these.

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ULTA is flat on good earnings and boosted guidence. I might just send it at open.

Listening to their earnings call around the time they dumped a bit. Some bullish stuff in here though.

  • Have 1.4b shares left to repurchase of their authorised 2b. (they bought 340k shares for 137m this Q)

  • Gross margin up 160bps to 41.2% of sales compared to 39.6% due to store fixed costs while having higher sales margins.

  • Increasing prices of inventory they bought for cheaper.

  • Increased guidence

  • Expect resilience in beauty catagory, said the beauty catagory has been resilient so far :thinking:

  • Mentioned higher wages and how its affecting income but I guess this is market wide.

  • Lowered marketing expenses to reduce impact of the wage inflation. (they have said this like 5x in 10min)

  • Inventory up 10%

  • Seeing project delays from supply chain and construction delays which has pushed a lot of stores opening to the right by a year, they expect to open 100 stores over next 2 years. (could be this that started the dump?)

  • Said they wont provide guidence for next year (yet?)

Q&A

-They re-iterated that demand has been resilient among price increases but are unsure if that will continue.
-Supply chain investments will increase next year, store payroll upward pressure, variable costs, inflationary costs, credit card fees “we’re seeing that in every part of our business, but we’ve been able to mitigate a lot of that”.

Seems like the main part is they’re feeling inflationary pressures and are mitigating it by reducing marketing costs. (They also say they’ve offset some of it through their strategic investments).

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