Valhalla’s Most Anticipated Earnings / October 17th 2022

[Ticown]

[color=#d4a218]Johnson & Johnson, ($JNJ)[/color]
Johnson & Johnson, ($JNJ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:25 AM EST on Tuesday 18th. The consensus estimate by the Earnings Whisper is for $2.57 per share on a revenue of $23.47 billion. JNJ reported 2nd Quarter June 2022 earnings of $2.59 per share on revenue of $24.0 billion. Revenue grew 3.0% on a year-over-year basis. Investor sentiment going into the company’s earnings release has 58% expecting an earnings beat. Short interest is considered to be healthy with 0.54% of the float being sold short. The stock has drifted lower by 8.76% from its open following the earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 3.1% move on earnings.

[color=#d4a218]Albertsons Companies, Inc., ($ACI)[/color]
Albertsons Companies, Inc., ($ACI) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM EST on Tuesday 18th. The consensus estimate by the Earnings Whisper is for $0.64 per share on a revenue of $17.68 billion. ACI reported 1st Quarter May 2022 earnings of $0.95 per share on revenue of $23.3 billion. Revenue grew 9.6% on a year-over-year basis. Investor sentiment going into the company’s earnings release has 14% expecting an earnings beat. Short interest is considered to be unhealthy with 6.87% of the float being sold short. The stock has drifted lower by 2.59% from its open following the earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 6.7% move on earnings.

[color=#d4a218]Lockheed Martin Corp., ($LMT)[/color]
Lockheed Martin Corp., ($LMT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM EST on Tuesday 18th. The consensus estimate by the Earnings Whisper is for $6.63 per share on a revenue of $16.71 billion. LMT reported 2nd Quarter June 2022 earnings of $6.32 per share on revenue of $15.4 billion. Revenue fell 9.3% compared to the same quarter a year ago. Investor sentiment going into the company’s earnings release has 59% expecting an earnings beat. Short interest is considered to be healthy with 1.04% of the float being sold short. The stock has drifted lower by 0.71% from its open following the earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 4.3% move on earnings.

[color=#d4a218]United Airlines, ($UAL)[/color]
United Airlines, ($UAL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:30 PM EST on Tuesday 18th. The consensus estimate by the Earnings Whisper is for $2.21 per share on a revenue of $12.62 billion. UAL reported 2nd Quarter June 2022 earnings of $1.43 per share on revenue of $12.1 billion. Revenue grew 121.4% on a year-over-year basis. Investor sentiment going into the company’s earnings release has 88% expecting an earnings beat. Short interest is considered to be No Estimated Short Interest Data for UAL with nan of the float being sold short. The stock has drifted lower by 7.45% from its open following the earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 9.3% move on earnings.

[color=#d4a218]Netflix, Inc., ($NFLX)[/color]
Netflix, Inc., ($NFLX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM EST on Tuesday 18th. The consensus estimate by the Earnings Whisper is for $2.12 per share on a revenue of $7.84 billion. NFLX reported 2nd Quarter June 2022 earnings of $3.20 per share on revenue of $8.0 billion. Revenue grew 8.6% on a year-over-year basis. Investor sentiment going into the company’s earnings release has 33% expecting an earnings beat. Short interest is considered to be healthy with 2.23% of the float being sold short. The stock has drifted higher by 22.84% from its open following the earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 12.7% move on earnings.

[color=#d4a218]Procter & Gamble Co., ($PG)[/color]
Procter & Gamble Co., ($PG) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:55 AM EST on Wednesday 19th. The consensus estimate by the Earnings Whisper is for $1.56 per share on a revenue of $20.56 billion. PG reported Quarter June 2022 earnings of $1.21 per share on revenue of $19.5 billion. Revenue grew 3.0% on a year-over-year basis. Investor sentiment going into the company’s earnings release has 41% expecting an earnings beat. Short interest is considered to be healthy with 0.59% of the float being sold short. The stock has drifted lower by 14.18% from its open following the earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 4.7% move on earnings.

[color=#d4a218]Tesla, Inc., ($TSLA)[/color]
Tesla, Inc., ($TSLA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM EST on Wednesday 19th. The consensus estimate by the Earnings Whisper is for $1.03 per share on a revenue of $22.52 billion. TSLA reported 2nd Quarter June 2022 earnings of $1.95 per share on revenue of $16.9 billion. Revenue grew 41.6% on a year-over-year basis. Investor sentiment going into the company’s earnings release has 65% expecting an earnings beat. Short interest is considered to be healthy with 2.05% of the float being sold short. The stock has drifted lower by 7.11% from its open following the earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 9.4% move on earnings.

[color=#d4a218]International Business Machines Corp., ($IBM)[/color]
International Business Machines Corp., ($IBM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:10 PM EST on Wednesday 19th. The consensus estimate by the Earnings Whisper is for $1.78 per share on a revenue of $13.55 billion. IBM reported 2nd Quarter June 2022 earnings of $2.31 per share on revenue of $15.5 billion. Revenue fell 17.1% compared to the same quarter a year ago. Investor sentiment going into the company’s earnings release has 49% expecting an earnings beat. Short interest is considered to be healthy with 2.85% of the float being sold short. The stock has drifted lower by 15.36% from its open following the earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 6.0% move on earnings.

[color=#d4a218]Steel Dynamics, Inc., ($STLD)[/color]
Steel Dynamics, Inc., ($STLD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:30 PM EST on Wednesday 19th. The consensus estimate by the Earnings Whisper is for $4.97 per share on a revenue of $5.43 billion. STLD reported 2nd Quarter June 2022 earnings of $6.73 per share on revenue of $6.2 billion. Revenue grew 39.1% on a year-over-year basis. Investor sentiment going into the company’s earnings release has 64% expecting an earnings beat. Short interest is considered to be healthy with 2.80% of the float being sold short. The stock has drifted higher by 20.41% from its open following the earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 6.4% move on earnings.

[color=#d4a218]AT&T Corp., ($T)[/color]
AT&T Corp., ($T) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:35 AM EST on Thursday 20th. The consensus estimate by the Earnings Whisper is for $0.61 per share on a revenue of $29.83 billion. T reported 2nd Quarter June 2022 earnings of $0.65 per share on revenue of $29.6 billion. Revenue fell 32.7% compared to the same quarter a year ago. Investor sentiment going into the company’s earnings release has 30% expecting an earnings beat. Short interest is considered to be healthy with 1.14% of the float being sold short. The stock has drifted lower by 28.11% from its open following the earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 16.4% move on earnings.

[color=#d4a218]Philip Morris International Inc, ($PM)[/color]
Philip Morris International Inc, ($PM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM EST on Thursday 20th. The consensus estimate by the Earnings Whisper is for $1.40 per share on a revenue of $7.40 billion. PM reported 2nd Quarter June 2022 earnings of $1.48 per share on revenue of $20.4 billion. Revenue fell 0.1% compared to the same quarter a year ago. Investor sentiment going into the company’s earnings release has 33% expecting an earnings beat. Short interest is considered to be healthy with 0.50% of the float being sold short. The stock has drifted lower by 8.16% from its open following the earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 4.1% move on earnings.

[color=#d4a218]American Airlines Group Inc., ($AAL)[/color]
American Airlines Group Inc., ($AAL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM EST on Thursday 20th. The consensus estimate by the Earnings Whisper is for $0.44 per share on a revenue of $13.25 billion. AAL reported 2nd Quarter June 2022 earnings of $0.76 per share on revenue of $13.4 billion. Revenue grew 79.5% on a year-over-year basis. Investor sentiment going into the company’s earnings release has 46% expecting an earnings beat. Short interest is considered to be unhealthy with 12.50% of the float being sold short. The stock has drifted lower by 8.71% from its open following the earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 9.9% move on earnings.

[color=#d4a218]Snap Inc., ($SNAP)[/color]
Snap Inc., ($SNAP) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:10 PM EST on Thursday 20th. The consensus estimate by the Earnings Whisper is for $0.00 per share on a revenue of $1.07 billion. SNAP reported a 2nd Quarter June 2022 loss of $0.06 per share on revenue of $1.1 billion. Revenue grew 13.1% on a year-over-year basis. Investor sentiment going into the company’s earnings release has 25% expecting an earnings beat. Short interest is considered to be healthy with 5.64% of the float being sold short. The stock has drifted lower by 26.67% from its open following the earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 16.8% move on earnings.

[color=#d4a218]Verizon Communications, ($VZ)[/color]
Verizon Communications, ($VZ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM EST on Friday 21st. The consensus estimate by the Earnings Whisper is for $1.28 per share on a revenue of $33.90 billion. VZ reported 2nd Quarter June 2022 earnings of $1.31 per share on revenue of $33.8 billion. Revenue grew 0.1% on a year-over-year basis. Investor sentiment going into the company’s earnings release has 53% expecting an earnings beat. Short interest is considered to be healthy with 0.81% of the float being sold short. The stock has drifted lower by 28.83% from its open following the earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 4.7% move on earnings.

[color=#d4a218]HCA Healthcare, Inc., ($HCA)[/color]
HCA Healthcare, Inc., ($HCA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM EST on Friday 21st. The consensus estimate by the Earnings Whisper is for $3.89 per share on a revenue of $15.00 billion. HCA reported 2nd Quarter June 2022 earnings of $4.21 per share on revenue of $14.8 billion. Revenue grew 2.7% on a year-over-year basis. Investor sentiment going into the company’s earnings release has 67% expecting an earnings beat. Short interest is considered to be healthy with 2.03% of the float being sold short. The stock has drifted higher by 19.15% from its open following the earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 6.9% move on earnings.

[color=#d4a218]American Express Co., ($AXP)[/color]
American Express Co., ($AXP) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM EST on Friday 21st. The consensus estimate by the Earnings Whisper is for $2.38 per share on a revenue of $13.49 billion. AXP reported 2nd Quarter June 2022 earnings of $2.57 per share on revenue of $13.4 billion. Revenue grew 30.8% on a year-over-year basis. Investor sentiment going into the company’s earnings release has 48% expecting an earnings beat. Short interest is considered to be healthy with 1.22% of the float being sold short. The stock has drifted lower by 2.30% from its open following the earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 6.0% move on earnings.

[SuckyMayor]

Fun facts to consider about one of our favorite tickers to talk about and a reason why I’m going to be a minor degenerate next week.

When we’re looking at the post-COVID darling mega caps, most have suffered significant losses since the start of the year. Let’s look at a few:

AMZN is trading at pre-COVID highs

META is just a joke at this point, trading below COVID lows

NFLX couldn’t be insulated from the competition after COVID

Valhalla’s favorite RH is back to COVID highs

But there’s one ticker that seems to maintain some level of resilience and is long considered to be a retail darling and favorite. And they happen to be reporting next Wednesday - TSLA.

TSLA is trading at nearly 4x their pre-COVID valuation and it makes sense to an extent - The Elon brand has grown significantly over the past couple of years and TSLA largely considers all of the things he is a part of to be covered under the TSLA banner.

IMO, this is the last great ticker to fall after our life of huge fed pumping and this earnings could be the one that pushes it. I will be breaking the cardinal sin of Valhalla for TSLA’s earning next week and taking a small OTM gamble in the event that this is the turning point. As you can see we’re sitting pretty healthily at a very strong support for the ticker, but we’ve also formed a H&S.

Notes on this earnings in particular in the negative:

• We know that the automotive sales that they’ll be reporting on in this earnings will be weak
• We know that interest rates are raising which makes car ownership a little more difficult, especially for top dollar vehicles
• We know that Elon is a fucking nightmare of a CEO and says things that tip or pump the stock

NFLX took a huge tumble this year because the markets deemed them no longer a growth company so they had to be priced based on their actual financials. If they do the same for TSLA, does it tumble 40% overnight? Unlikely, but an interesting thing to gamble on.

I’ll be looking towards 160P next week for earnings. A very small position, probably less than 5 puts. But I think playing to the downside on TSLA right now is more lucrative than playing to the upside.

[khalidad]

I’m not sure if this matters to you, but there’s much higher Open Interest at the 180 strike than the 160, but there were plenty of bearish bets made on Friday in general, looking at the next months large money trades. Whether that is because of the sharp reversal on SPY and QQQ, or because others are thinking like you due to sales info impacting earnings (or because of the Twitter overhang), I can’t say.

[TheMadBeaker]

Everything was a beat this morning.

[TheMadBeaker]

Morning earnings, looks pretty good all around.

EDIT: Updated with Albertsons.

[PaperhandsJB]

Wish we had more pay attention and read the earnings to play after they come out. Especially the ones from each morning. LMT was a big server miss but we need more people involved in digesting the info and helping on plays. I will be busier this week and stinks many missed.

[TheMadBeaker]

After hour earnings. Might update again with the missing companies. Way to crush it Netflix!

[TheMadBeaker]

Well this is interesting:

Netflix to Stop Giving Forecasts on User Growth

Netflix will stop providing a forecast for its paid membership starting with its fourth-quarter report, a metric that has often caused the stock to move dramatically.

“We are increasingly focused on revenue as our primary top-line metric,” Netflix said in its shareholder letter Tuesday. “This will become particularly important heading into 2023 as we develop new revenue streams like advertising and paid sharing.”

The company will continue to provide guidance for revenue, operating income, operating margin, net income, earnings per share and fully diluted shares outstanding for the following quarter.

[SuckyMayor]

The play with this one from my perspective is pretty straightforward. I intend on throwing abandon to the wind and capping my loss at $20-30. As of market close that would be put me at the 170-175P range, however I’ll be curious to see if the NFLX earnings tonight that bumped the market also help drive that target strike higher.

No big positions, no big strategy. This is unabetted degeneracy that has a higher chance of losing my investment than returning a big result. However understanding where TSLA is compared to its COVID pumpy peers, it’s a risk I’m willing to take on for each earnings until their price stabilizes.

I just want to be clear that I’m calling this what this is: a gamble position that could work out but probably won’t.

[jjcox82]

I’m going to take the blame for this one on LMT. I almost always read these first thing in the morning and post. I had early meeting this morning and didn’t get a chance. And just glanced and after reading the release undoubtedly would have noticed it.

Feel bad because we missed a really good easy play as server. To the point I was so annoyed I didn’t trade anything today. Premarket reports always seem to be best ones too because it’s fresh data before market open.

[jjcox82]

Was reading NFLX report just now and these MFers literally post an excel spreadsheet with tabs for their earnings. Literally the most dialed down in advanced report I think I’ve looked at. So link is here for those that want to glance through.

https://s22.q4cdn.com/959853165/files/doc_financials/2022/q3/Q3’22-Website-Financials.xlsx

One thing that stood out to me was their net free cash flow at end of 2021 was -159k their net cash flow as of the end of last quarter for 2022 +1.28 million this is a huge swing. And likely means they have cut cost and increased profits.

They seem to acknowledge a tough sledding last quarter and claim to be on a path to reacclerated growth.

Also thought their inclusion of the Google trends was interesting.

This also explains their thought process behind bingeable releases. Which came up on TF why they would do this model.

All in all I’d say this was actually a pretty impressive print. For a company that collapsed last report. Will likely be playing this tomorrow if market continues to be green.

Going to watch for PT upgrades in the morning. As well as tomorrow mornings reports.

[derfam]

Something else that popped up, theyre monetising account sharing which has been eating a decent chunk of their profits. (apparently 53% of americans share accounts)

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/netflix-will-crack-down-on-password-sharing-next-year-heres-how-it-will-work-11666126970?mod=home-page

[jjcox82]

They talked a lot about this their last earnings but don’t think they detailed how. This was one of their ideas to increase subs.

Which I forgot to mention above. The major fall fo their last reporting was in large part due to loss of subscribers. And feel like that was a big boost this report. Their uptick

Now if you factor in an uptick in subs plus now selling advertising the more subscribers and viewers you have to more you can charge for ads. IE the Super Bowl. It cost how many ever million dollars or billion dollars for a 30 second spot. Because it’s the single most watch program on earth.

From advertising standpoint I have transitioned much of our ad budget for my company to you tube pre roll type stuff or streaming services. All in all the more eye balls they get on the screen the more their ad real estate costs and generates.

[TheMadBeaker]

JPMorgan raised from 240 to 330
Barclays raised from 170 to 235
Credit Suisse raised from 263 to 271
Pivotal Research raised from 175 to 200
Piper Sandler raised from 215 to 270
Wedbush raised from 280 to 325

---

Apparently Generac released preliminary Q3 earnings and tanked 18% premarket!

[Generac] reported third-quarter profit and sales that fell well below expectations and cut its full-year outlook, citing disappointing residential sales. Net income fell to $58 million, or 83 cents a share, from $132 million, or $1.93 a share, in the year-ago period. Excluding nonrecurring items, adjusted earnings per share of $1.75 missed the FactSet consensus of $3.22. Sales increased 15% to $1.09 billion but were below the FactSet consensus of $1.34 billion. For 2022, the company cut its sales growth outlook to 22% to 24% from 36% to 40% and its net income margin guidance to 9% to 10% from 13% to 14%.

Generac to Post $18M 3Q Bad-Debt Expense on Customer Bankruptcy

Generac to Post $37M 3Q Pretax Charge on Clean-Energy Product Warranty-Related Matters

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On the flip side, ASML posted earnings this morning and crushed it, currently up over 6%.

ASML said that it expects the direct impact from the U.S.’s chip curbs on China to be “limited.”

ASML said Wednesday revenue for the third quarter of 2022 came in at 5.77 billon euros ($5.6 billion), beating analysts forecast of 5.41 billion euros, according to Reuters. That was a 10% year-on-year rise.

Net profit totaled 1.7 billion euros versus forecasts of 1.42 billion euros, a 2.2% decrease versus the same period last year, but higher when compared to the second quarter of this year.

---

Finally P&G beat on their earnings this morning:

• Earnings per share: $1.57 vs. $1.54 expected
• Revenue: $20.61 billion vs. $20.28 billion expected

P&G reported fiscal first-quarter net income of $3.94 billion, or $1.57 per share, down from $4.11 billion, or $1.61 per share, a year earlier.

Net sales rose 1% to $20.61 billion, topping expectations of $20.28 billion.

[Brutus]

How do you plan to play this? Calls right after open/iv crush? What exp and price target? I’ve not played these yet so trying to get a feel what’s worked.

It’s up 13% pre-market sitting at 272.50 right now.

[TheMadBeaker]

Has anyone else noticed that both EPS & revenue this quarter aren’t exactly all that great when you compare to the previous two quarters? It feels like the only reason the stock went up was because the subscriber number went up. I mean, follow the hype sure, but how long is the bubble going to last?

[jjcox82]

Typically I look at strikes a few percent OTM that has some OI usually try to get cheap fills out of open to see if can catch the IV crush usually only try a couple here in case for some reason I miss. If I can’t there just fill off support as normal.

[jjcox82]

I noticed that, also there estimated EPS for upcoming is way down.

However their operating margin went down this Quarter and they are projecting way less there as well for 4th quarter.

More PT upgrades coming in

Few more Cowan raised to 340 Oppenheimer to 360 rosenblatt raised but only to 226

[Brutus]

Do you buy 0DTEs or further out?

[jjcox82]

Being Wednesday still I will go with this weeks. Thursday or Friday I usually go the following. Especially Friday earnings Everytime I don’t follow this it bites me. Usually have no intentions of holding Overnight anyways.