Valhalla’s Most Anticipated Earnings / October 31st 2022

My bad, forgot to post, busy w/e

Toyota Motor Corp., ($TM)
Toyota Motor Corp., ($TM) is confirmed to report on Tuesday 1st, although the time has not yet been confirmed. The consensus estimate by the Earnings Whisper is for $3.08 per share on a revenue of $66.84 billion. TM reported 1st Quarter June 2022 earnings of $4.14 per share on revenue of $65.5 billion. Revenue fell 9.6% compared to the same quarter a year ago. Investor sentiment going into the company’s earnings release has 28% expecting an earnings beat. Short interest is considered to be healthy with 0.04% of the float being sold short. The stock has drifted lower by 14.19% from its open following the earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 5.7% move on earnings.

Sony Group Corporation, ($SONY)
Sony Group Corporation, ($SONY) is confirmed to report on Tuesday 1st, although the time has not yet been confirmed. The consensus estimate by the Earnings Whisper is for $1.10 per share on a revenue of $21.17 billion. SONY reported 1st Quarter June 2022 earnings of $1.35 per share on revenue of $17.8 billion. Revenue fell 13.5% compared to the same quarter a year ago. Investor sentiment going into the company’s earnings release has 44% expecting an earnings beat. Short interest is considered to be healthy with 0.07% of the float being sold short. The stock has drifted lower by 20.54% from its open following the earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 6.1% move on earnings.

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc., ($AMD)
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc., ($AMD) is confirmed to report on Tuesday 1st, although the time has not yet been confirmed. The consensus estimate by the Earnings Whisper is for $0.55 per share on a revenue of $5.58 billion. AMD reported 2nd Quarter June 2022 earnings of $1.00 per share on revenue of $6.6 billion. Revenue grew 70.1% on a year-over-year basis. Investor sentiment going into the company’s earnings release has 40% expecting an earnings beat. Short interest is considered to be healthy with 2.35% of the float being sold short. The stock has drifted lower by 34.36% from its open following the earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 7.3% move on earnings.

QUALCOMM Incorporated, ($QCOM)
QUALCOMM Incorporated, ($QCOM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM EST on Wednesday 2nd. The consensus estimate by the Earnings Whisper is for $2.76 per share on a revenue of $11.38 billion. QCOM reported 3rd Quarter June 2022 earnings of $2.94 per share on revenue of $10.9 billion. Revenue grew 35.7% on a year-over-year basis. Investor sentiment going into the company’s earnings release has 54% expecting an earnings beat. Short interest is considered to be healthy with 1.18% of the float being sold short. The stock has drifted lower by 17.82% from its open following the earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 7.1% move on earnings.

Starbucks Corp., ($SBUX)
Starbucks Corp., ($SBUX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM EST on Thursday 3rd. The consensus estimate by the Earnings Whisper is for $0.73 per share on a revenue of $8.32 billion. SBUX reported 3rd Quarter June 2022 earnings of $0.84 per share on revenue of $8.2 billion. Revenue grew 8.7% on a year-over-year basis. Investor sentiment going into the company’s earnings release has 35% expecting an earnings beat. Short interest is considered to be healthy with 1.15% of the float being sold short. The stock has drifted higher by 2.74% from its open following the earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 5.2% move on earnings.

PayPal, ($PYPL)
PayPal, ($PYPL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM EST on Thursday 3rd. The consensus estimate by the Earnings Whisper is for $0.96 per share on a revenue of $6.83 billion. PYPL reported 2nd Quarter June 2022 earnings of $0.96 per share on revenue of $6.8 billion. Revenue grew 9.1% on a year-over-year basis. Investor sentiment going into the company’s earnings release has 48% expecting an earnings beat. Short interest is considered to be healthy with 2.09% of the float being sold short. The stock has drifted higher by 0.32% from its open following the earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 10.9% move on earnings.

Rocket Companies, Inc., ($RKT)
Rocket Companies, Inc., ($RKT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM EST on Thursday 3rd. The consensus estimate by the Earnings Whisper is for ($0.04) per share on a revenue of $1.14 billion. RKT reported a 2nd Quarter June 2022 loss of $0.05 per share on revenue of $1.4 billion. Revenue fell 47.8% compared to the same quarter a year ago. Investor sentiment going into the company’s earnings release has 14% expecting an earnings beat. Short interest is considered to be healthy with 32.76% of the float being sold short. The stock has drifted lower by 29.52% from its open following the earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 10.8% move on earnings.

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The ones I’m watching tomorrow from AH earnings;

# Marriot Vacations Worldwide Cor Beats

Marriot Vacations Worldwide Cor (VAC) reported 3rd Quarter September 2022 earnings of $3.02 per share on revenue of $1.3 billion. The consensus earnings estimate was $2.63 per share on revenue of $1.2 billion. The Earnings Whisper number was $2.81 per share. Revenue grew 19.0% on a year-over-year basis.

The company said it expects 2022 earnings of $10.20 to $10.64 per share. The company’s previous guidance was earnings of $9.47 to $10.35 per share and the current consensus earnings estimate is $10.18 per share for the year ending December 31, 2022.

Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corp is a developer, marketer, seller and manager of vacation ownership and related products under the Marriott Vacation Club and Grand Residences by Marriott brands.

This one has been on a bit of a tear though so potentially :pricedin:

# SBA Communications Beats

SBA Communications (SBAC) reported 3rd Quarter September 2022 earnings of $3.10 per share on revenue of $675.6 million. The consensus earnings estimate was $2.81 per share on revenue of $652.8 million. The Earnings Whisper number was $2.86 per share. Revenue grew 14.6% on a year-over-year basis.

The company said it expects 2022 funds from operations of $12.12 to $12.34 per share. The company’s previous guidance was FFO of $11.87 to $12.24 per share and the current consensus FFO estimate is $11.20 per share for the year ending December 31, 2022.

SBA Communications Corporation is an independent owner & operator of wireless communications tower structures, rooftops & other structures that support antennas for communication. Its business segments are site leasing and site development.

I can’t see any news why this is down so much recently other than price downgrades but I’d watch for upgrades in the morning, it’s also formed a double bottom.

Lattice Semicond Beats

Lattice Semicond (LSCC) reported 3rd Quarter September 2022 earnings of $0.48 per share on revenue of $172.5 million. The consensus earnings estimate was $0.44 per share on revenue of $166.3 million. The Earnings Whisper number was $0.46 per share. Revenue grew 30.8% on a year-over-year basis.

The company said it expects fourth quarter revenue of $170.0 million to $180.0 million. The current consensus revenue estimate is $169.60 million for the quarter ending December 31, 2022.

Lattice Semiconductor Corp designs, develops and markets programmable logic products and related software. It also provides design services, customer training, field engineering and technical support.

Another one that looks a bit beat up and forming a janky inverse h/s on daily chart.

# Stryker Misses

Stryker (SYK) reported 3rd Quarter September 2022 earnings of $2.12 per share on revenue of $4.5 billion. The consensus earnings estimate was $2.24 per share on revenue of $4.5 billion. The Earnings Whisper number was $2.31 per share. Revenue grew 7.7% on a year-over-year basis.

The company said it expects 2022 earnings of $9.15 to $9.25 per share. The company’s previous guidance was earnings of $9.30 to $9.50 per share and the current consensus earnings estimate is $9.36 per share for the year ending December 31, 2022.

Stryker Corporation is a medical technology company. The Company offers medical technologies, including reconstructive, medical and surgical, and neurotechnology and spine products.

Not expecting much from this, looks like it’s got resistance at 233 on the daily but it’s just been flagging for a while.

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Lots to watch today. If market stays green after market calendar data comes out at 10 look for calls on SOFI at 5.75/6 support. PFE calls at 47.50/47 but earnings call at 10am too. UBER 28/29 support for calls.

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watching SONY and ATVI too on COD sales

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Tomorrow premarket I’ll be watching MDLZ AMD ABNB PSA and depending on how CVS reports since they have largely already beat themselves down. Regardless of any of these I’m out by FED time.

MDLZ is a tough as they missed on EPS and Beat on revenue and also raised guidance

PT- averages around 69 generally rated as a buy.

Third Quarter Highlights
• Net revenues increased +8.1% driven by Organic Net Revenue1 growth of +12.1% with underlying Volume/Mix of +0.7%
• Diluted EPS was $0.39, down 56.2%; Adjusted EPS1 was $0.74, up +15.7% on a constant currency basis
• Year-to-date cash provided by operating activities was $2.5 billion, a decrease of $0.2 billion versus prior year; Free Cash Flow1 was $1.9 billion, down $0.2 billion versus prior year
• Return of capital to shareholders was $3.3 billion year-to-date
• Raising both Organic Net Revenue growth outlook to 10%+ and Adjusted EPS growth outlook to
10%+
• Closed Clif Bar acquisition, helping to create an annual $1+ billion global snack bar business
• Closed Ricolino acquisition, doubling the size of our Mexico business
• Announced incremental investment into Cocoa Life program to reach a total of $1.0 billion and
expand our goal to source all our cocoa volume from Cocoa Life by 2030

**Not sure what I’m thinking here. Already at its highs close to PT highs. ER was okay not great. And guidance was raised. **

AMD had EPS miss but revenue up and gross profit YOY these guys are so beat down if you told me AMd would be in the 50s months ago I would say you were high on crack.

Average PT is 92 and rated heavily at a buy or hold currently.

For the fourth quarter of 2022, AMD expects revenue to be approximately $5.5 billion, plus or minus $300 million, an increase of approximately 14% year-over-year and flat sequentially. Year-over-year and sequentially, the Embedded and Data Center segments are expected to grow. AMD expects non-GAAP gross margin to be approximately 51% in the fourth quarter of 2022.

ABNB- probably my second favorite here. But IV is jacked and mixed bag. Personally think it got algo crushed and could rebound this would be a low bid target at open.

Average PT- 135 rated as big hold and some buy.

We also had our most profitable quarter with net income of $1.2 billion, up 46 percent year-over-year, representing a 42 percent net income margin. Free cash flow of $960 million increased more than 80 percent from a year ago. And, over the last twelve months, we generated $3.3 billion in FCF, representing a FCF margin of more than 40 percent.

  • Q3 revenue of $2.9 billion was our highest quarter ever. Revenue grew 29% year-over-year (or 36% ex-FX) driven by the combination of growth in Nights and Experiences Booked and continued strength in ADR.

  • Q3 net income of $1.2 billion was our most profitable quarter ever. Net income improved by $380 million compared to Q3 2021 primarily due to our revenue growth and expense discipline. In Q3 2022, we delivered a net income margin of 42%, up from 37% in Q3 2021, and $1.6 billion of net income in the last twelve months.

  • Q3 Adjusted EBITDA of $1.5 billion was a record best. Adjusted EBITDA in Q3 2022 increased 32% compared to $1.1 billion in Q3 2021. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 51% for Q3 2022, up from 49% in Q3 2021. This further improvement in Adjusted EBITDA demonstrates the continued strength of our business and discipline in managing our cost structure1.

  • Q3 Free Cash Flow of $960 million was our highest Q3 ever. Q3 2022 net cash provided by operating activities was $966 million, up from $535 million in Q3 2021. The increase in cash flow was driven by revenue growth and net margin expansion. Our TTM FCF was $3.3 billion, representing a TTM FCF margin of 41%1.

I’m bullish as fuck here for long run. Going to watch premarket to see reaction intial drop and an attempt to rebound usually signals algo reaction. Coming off best quarter ever would seem like a calls opportunity and constant growth means they are just getting bigger.

PSA- interesting play here as monthlies and modest volume but post big time ER strong growth in new units etc. Been actively buying back shares.

Average PT 364 rated as buy or hold. **I’m watching here for morning only their ER call is not til 9 pacific. Which is 12 market time I believe. Watch reaction premarket and would be out before the call. **

  • Reported net income allocable to common shareholders of $15.38 per diluted share.

  • Reported core FFO allocable to common shareholders (“Core FFO”) of $4.13 per diluted share, an increase of 20.8% relative to the same period in 2021.

  • Increased Same Store (as defined below) direct net operating income by 16.5%, resulting from a 14.7% increase in Same Store revenues.

  • Achieved 80.3% Same Store direct net operating income margin, an increase of 1.6% relative to the same period in 2021.

  • Acquired 24 self-storage facilities with 1.7 million net rentable square feet for $250.6 million. Subsequent to September 30, 2022, we acquired or were under contract to acquire 33 self-storage facilities with 1.7 million net rentable square feet, for $262.6 million.

  • Opened five newly developed facilities and completed various expansion projects with 0.5 million net rentable square feet costing $69.7 million. At September 30, 2022, we had various facilities in development and expansion with 5.1 million net rentable square feet estimated to cost $1.0 billion.

  • Distributed a one-time dividend of $13.15 per common share totaling $2.3 billion in August 2022, in connection with the sale of our equity investment of PS Business Park, Inc. (“PSB”), upon completion of its merger transaction with the affiliates of Blackstone Real Estate (“Blackstone”) on July 20, 2022.

I’m going to be watching ABNB and PSA closest premarket.

EMR posted this morning. Now watching them EPS beat revenue growth.

Average PT 100

  • Fourth quarter net sales were $5.4 billion, up 8 percent from the year prior; underlying sales1 were up 12 percent
  • Full year net sales were $19.6 billion, up 8 percent from the year prior; underlying sales were up 9 percent
  • Fourth quarter GAAP EPS was $1.24, up 12 percent from the year prior; adjusted EPS2 was $1.53, up 16 percent
  • Full year GAAP EPS was $5.41, up 42 percent from the year prior; adjusted EPS was $5.25, up 16 percent
  • InSinkErator divestiture expected to close today
  • Completed 66th year of consecutive increased quarterly dividends per share; declared increase of quarterly cash dividend to $0.52 per share of common stock payable December 9, 2022 to stockholders of record November 11, 2022

Just going to throw this out there in regards to AMD. I manage a smallish datacenter and we’re Dell partners and I’ve been buying some AMD EPYC servers and their lead times have gotten great over the past year post covid. Intel based servers are always quick ship, but now AMD based servers are available with about a month lead time which is better than the few months it used to be. Dell’s website also finally showcases these AMD based servers instead of hiding them a bit and pushing Intel to the top like they’ve always done. Many Azure servers are running of AMD’s chips too as they take advantage of all the cores.

For business class pc’s, Intel really stepped their game with the 12th gen chips, and talking to others in the industry I see many departments doing pc refreshes post covid now that supply and funding is in, and almost everyone is going Intel (not like that was AMD’s market share anyway).

Personal pc wise with new ddr5 people are looking to build with but it’s kind of a toss up between Intel and amd with no clear winner. Gpu wise AMD’s new card seems to be from rumors at 4090 performance, but 20 or 30 series raytracing equivalent which isn’t bad especially if they price it well enough.

Sorry if I went a bit off topic, just wanted to mention what I’m seeing in my small part of the industry. I’ve got a single AMD weekly call I bought at close that I might sell at open or let ride til noon.

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Got a couple I’m watching as of now for tomorrow. SQ PYPL DASH and TEAM.

SQ- EPS beat almost double. Revenue beat. Growth is up. especially in their cash app division. 40 percent growth. Guided up.

Really all positive news here from their report and a strong beat in all segments.

Average PT 98 with mostly buy rating.

Also SQ is currently near pre covid levels which their growth is progressing substantially since then.

PYPL- EPS beat Revenue beat a little lower guidance for year in. Announced share buyback incoming. Surprised this took a dive AH might be over reaction. Going to watch its movement for recovery pre market

Average PT- 118 with majority buy with some hold rating.

TEAM- this mostly boiled down to pretty awful guidance not a terrible miss but issued some warnings in regard to converting free subscriptions to paid. I’d think this one would be a good puts play. If market is red tomorrow.

Going to watch AEE release in morning as well energy sector and should have a good post.

Watch premarket for any movements and PT upgrades but leaning towards SQ calls and TEAM puts.

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Not sure if a lot of people watch this semiconductor one but MCHP microchip technology inc. is up almost 10% in pre-market as of 9:18am.

They had earnings yesterday I think I follow it because it’s part of soxl / ICE

SBUX might be one to consider this morning due to good earnings and how it usually reacts to China closing/opening news. Also some new price targets came in

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